Is there any plausible way Cuba could become US territory?

I suspect strongly that for this to happen, Spain would have had to give up Cuba, forcibly or otherwise, in the 19th century or even earlier.

Perhaps the 1810-1812 filibuster campaign might have been more strenuous, including crossing the straits to strike at what may have been perceived as the heart of Spanish power in the Caribbean--although that seems to be something of a stretch.

The Ostend Manifesto seems to me to be too late. By the 1850s, the sentiment for independence in Cuba would probably have been sufficient to make acquisition challenging--and by extension, adding Cuba as a commonwealth similar to Puerto Rico after 1898 would have been nearly impossible.

So: how could this be done, if at all?
 
The only thing I can think of, assuming the ostend manifesto is too late (which I dont think it is), is that the Americans somehow get involved in the Latin American wars for independence. Maybe Spain goes after American shipments of supplies to the rebels, etc. Adams-Onis treaty never happens and there is a war over Florida? I know Spain is still a significant Great Power during these times but I believe they would be sufficiently distracted.
 
You need a martially and economically stronger United States to take on Spain in Cuba earlier than the 1890s. The earlier this war takes place, the less likely it is the USA acquires Spanish possessions in the Pacific.
 
Spain actively supports South during ACW

What if Spain helps the South during the Civil War by stockpiling military supplies in Havana and lets the South buy on credit? They also serve as a port for Southern commercial raiders to be resupplied and refitted. They allow Spanish volunteers to fight for the South and then after the war become a haven for hard line Southerns. The hard line Southerns include enough soldiers to form a small army. There are enough high ranking government officials to form a government in exile. It is rumored that they are conspiring to resume the war and that they are hiding some of the people who conspired to assassinate Lincoln. (Rumors don't have to be true to be believable.)

The USA decides that enough is enough and tells Spain that they owe war damages for supporting the South and that the Southerns have to leave Cuba. Also anyone associated with assassinating Lincoln has to be turned over to the America government.

Spain refuses and the United States which has not fully demobilized attacks Cuba and PR. After their conquest and a peace treaty, Cuba and PR become US territories and eventually a state. Santo Domingo joins after it is annex by the USA and then later the American Virgin Islands join. Haiti continues to have problems and is absorbed by the USA. They join the state of Caribbea.

Some of this is a stretch but it might work. They key is that Spain decides that a weaken and divided USA would help them keep Cuba and PR.

Stubear1012
 

J.D.Ward

Donor
A larger Puerto Rico?

What prevented Cuba from going the same way as Puerto Rico after the Spanish-American War, and how easy is it to change this?
 

Driftless

Donor
What if Spain helps the South during the Civil War by stockpiling military supplies in Havana and lets the South buy on credit? They also serve as a port for Southern commercial raiders to be resupplied and refitted. They allow Spanish volunteers to fight for the South and then after the war become a haven for hard line Southerns.

(snip)

Some of this is a stretch but it might work. They key is that Spain decides that a weaken and divided USA would help them keep Cuba and PR.

Stubear1012

Timing would be another issue. OTL, the US de-mobbed most of the Army following the close of the Civil War, and the Navy tied up to the dock and deteriorated. It took the 1873 "Virginius Incident" and similar events to help kick-start the upgrade and modernizations to the Navy.
 
I agree that timing would be another issue

I agree that timing is another issue. When my father was released from the Army, there was not enough trains and buses to take all of the men home who were being released. My father was waiting for his turn to get a train ride home. My grandfather drove to Fort Chafee and picked my father up. Since my father had transportation, they gave him his discharge papers and waved him good by.

Maybe the Spanish Ambassador in Washington is very pro Southern in his statements so that there are articles in many of the newspaper protesting his bias. The newspapers decide to blame Spain for the Southern victories ie "Our Northern boys would have won more battles if those Spanish volunteers were not on the Southern side."

To then make the situation explosive, the Spanish Ambassador is seen repeatedly visiting with John Wilkes Booth. Booth is seen repeatedly going to the Spanish embassy. Booth was a prominent actor and the Spanish Ambassador enjoyed watching plays. They are discussing plays and literature. However after the assassination of Lincoln, it is quickly rumored that they were planning the assassination.

With the rumors flying and tension high, the decision is made to only release a limited number of solders ie the ones whose term of enlistment as expired. Hopefully this would still keep a large number of soldiers in the Army.

Also, if that does not provide enough men, then they could recruit more former slaves for the United States Colored Troops.

"Approximately 175 regiments comprising more than 178,000 free blacks and freedmen served during the last two years of the war. Their service bolstered the Union war effort at a critical time. By war's end, the men of the USCT composed nearly one tenth of all Union troops. The USCT suffered 2,751 combat casualties during the war, and 68,178 losses from all causes. Disease caused the most fatalities for all troops, black and white.[5] "

The Northern navy would start to move to units off of Virgina and the Carolinas to ports closer to Cuba and PR. A fleet of war ships could start patrolling off of Cuba's shores.

Does this sound like a way to keep a sizable military while the situation gets worst?

Stubear1012
 
Strength of the Spanish Navy 1860:


Subjoined is a statement of the present strength of the Spanish Navy.
There are in serviceable condition 82 vessels, carrying in all 887 guns. Of these 2 are ships-of-the-line, rating 86 guns each; 4 are frigates, rating from 32 to 42; 4 are corvettes of from 16 to 20; 9 are brigs of from 10 to 20; and 16 are smaller vessels and 10 transports.

There are three steam frigates; and 5 schooners, all fitted with the screw, besides 3 paddle-wheel frigates of 500 horse-power, and 16 guns each; 8 brigs of 380 horse-power, and 6 guns; and 18 schooners of from 100 to 300 tons, and 2 to 5 in active service, independent of 6 battallions of marines numbering 100 men each.

There are, however, nearly 100,000 registered fishermen and others, who could be drafted into the service. Their officers number 1,150 of all grades.
The Coast-Guard of Spain is maintained by 24 feluccas, and 87 estamperia.

For example :the Frigate Berenguela is about 1,200 tons burden, and carries a fine armament of 37 guns, medium size, thirty-two and sixty-eights, manufactured at the naval depot of Turvia, in Spain.
Fifteen of these guns are on the spar, and twenty-fire on the gun deck, forward, on the former, is a neat brass 12-pounder howitzer.

A novel idea has been carried out in arranging the small arms beside the cannon of the ship, thus obviating the necessity of keeping them in a separate room. A spare propeller is stowed, to be used in case of need.


The Spanish squadron of the Gulf consists of no less than twenty men-of-war, of which, eleven are steamers. As it is well to know how the Spanish navy is represented in the Gulf, we append a list of the entire fleet:

STEAM FRIGATES -- Berenguela, Blancha, Petrioula.

STEAM CORVETTES -- Francis de Ais, Isabel de Cattolica, Velasco, Blaico de Garay, Rezana, Baran, Hernan Cortes, Neptune, Venandila, General Lero, Guadalquiver.

SAILING VESSELS -- Alcido, Isabel II., Pelago, Herbannero, Christina, Janitor.
 
What prevented Cuba from going the same way as Puerto Rico after the Spanish-American War, and how easy is it to change this?

Politics. The opponents of the war eventually consented to the war, but on condition that the war proponents lived with what they preached. The proponents claimed it was a matter of national honour and freedom and they had no territorial designs on Cuba. So they war opponents wrote Cuban freedom into the deal and said 'okay, have your war.'

The warhawks were stuck. They spent the next forty years looking for a way to keep Cuba.
 
Perhaps Narciso Lopez's 1850 or 1851 expedition is more successful. In OTL he tired to recruit both Jefferson Davis and Robert Lee to help lead the expedition. Maybe their leadership ensures more southern volunteers and better organization. This in turn leads to a better start to the exepeditions which leads the locals to join Lopez's forces?
 
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