Is there any chance for Galba, Otho or Vitellius to reign longer?

After Emperor Nero's death there was a brief period of civil war in the Roman Empire called "The Year of the Four Emperors". In the year 69 AD, four men ruled as Emperor in succession: Galba, Otho, Vitellius and finally Vespasian.

I'm wondering if there's any way for the first three to remain on the throne for longer than a few months at a time. I assume Galba isn't likely to remain Emperor for long in any case because his short rule seems to have been a bit of a disaster and he was IIRC very old at the time, but what about the other two, Otho and Vitellius?
 
IIRC, and it has been a while since I read up on this, but there was an understanding that Otho would succeed Galba. Their arrangement broke down when Galba insulted Otho and named a non-entity as his successor (who I think was murdered alongside Galba by Otho's men). Towards the end Galba started acting erratically, and of course he was very old by this point. Perhaps if his arrogance was reigned in a little, and he understood the precariousness of his position (indeed, of all Emperors), than he could have kept Otho on side by keeping him as the successor. In any event, it is likely he only has a few more years in him before he will naturally expire.

Assuming Galba continues with Otho as his successor, there is still the rebellion of Vitellius to deal with. The historic clash between Otho and Vitellius ended in defeat for Otho, and Otho famously committed suicide. His suicide was premature as he still had significant support in Dalmatia. If Otho is dealing with the rebellion, on behalf of a still living Galba, than he is likely to prevail over Vitellius and potentially still keep the loyalty of Vespasian in the East. The question will be what he does when he returns to Rome with an increasingly erratic Galba remaining the de jure Emperor. He could observe the niceties and detain the old man (or make his domination very clear), or be rid of him promptly. Of course both options are risky, but I think this would meet the challenge of your OP.
 
I agree. The only possible scenario is, that Galba survives and has enough time to install a legal heir. And is able to defeat Vitellius. Everything else brings Vespasians into the arena.

Galba has 2 options:

1. Adopt Otho

2. Adopt Calpurnius, but not before the praetorians are pampered accordingly.

According to what we know about Galbas character, both is rather unlikely to happen.
 
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According to what we know about Galbas character, both is rather unlikely to happen.

IIRC Galba was described as a very promising individual, before he became Emperor. Indeed, Suetonius claimed that everybody (including Augustus' wife Livia) predicted that Galba would be a worthy Emperor, and it was quite a shock that he was so incompetent in the job. Perhaps it is simply a case of taking the position too late in life, but it need not be inevitable that his reign would be so poor. We have the example of Emperor Nerva for what an aged, and realistic, ruler of Rome could be like.

I agree with you that Galba, especially if we use his OTL ascension as the POD, needs to adopt Otho. What Galba doesn't have is time, and in my view adopting Calpurnius will not be enough, even if the praetorians are bribed. You still have Vitellius to deal with, and the legions in Dalmatia appear to have supported Otho. I have no idea what Vespasian's views were on Calpurnius, but presumably they were not significant.
 
Vespasian did not usurp initially. He was busy fighting the Jews. So he has sent his son Titus to Rome, probably to ask the emperor for a confirmation of his command. When Titus reached Greece he heard, that Galba is dead and 2 usurpators are fighting each other. So he turned back to Vespasian.

I assume, that Vespasian would have followed every legal emperor. Galba was officially asked by the senate to help against Nero. However, he was inthronized officially and Calpurnius was his legal heir.

I agree, that Galba was a very honorable and capable man. But he was also fully unaware of this game, which was played in Rome. He rejected to pay the promised donativum to the praetorians with the words: "I don't pay soldiers, I command them". He also thought, that he could just appoint somebody to be heir, who had no power base. So this stubborn old man died consequently.
 
Vitellius had the loyalty of the army of the Rhine, a formidable and battle-hardened force; it would be quite conceivable for him to see off Vespasian's challenge.

Then again, Vitellius was supposed to be quite louche and corrupt, IIRC, so it's uncertain how long he'd have been able to keep the throne before being murdered or overthrown.
 
Vitellius had the loyalty of the army of the Rhine, a formidable and battle-hardened force; it would be quite conceivable for him to see off Vespasian's challenge.

Actually, Vitellius and Vespasian fought against each other, after Vitellius defeated Otho. Not personally, their armies did. Vespasian just sent his legions and commanders, like a good emperor would have done.

Vespasian had his army in Judaea, the syrian army, the egyptian army, the pannonian/moesian army and finally even the fleets on his side. Some of them also battle hardened lately. Finally it was more or less the pannonian army alone, led by Antonius Primus, which defeated Vitellius glorius force.

As I claimed above. With all the cleverness of Vespasian building such an huge alliance, and getting his hands on the superior treasuries of the east, there was no emperor possible, if not the one Vespasian accepts. Vespasian joined the party very late. Therefore he had all the time to be best prepared. And it seems, that he accepted only Galba.

Of course, we don't know, if Vespasian would have accepted Calpurnius. Perhaps Titus was on his way to Rome, in order to negotiate with Galba about his succession. We simply, don't know.
 
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Actually, Vitellius and Vespasian fought against each other, after Vitellius defeated Otho. Not personally, their armies did. Vespasian just sent his legions and commanders, like a good emperor would have done.

Vespasian had his army in Judaea, the syrian army, the egyptian army, the pannonian/moesian army and finally even the fleets on his side. Some of them also battle hardened lately. Finally it was more or less the pannonian army alone, led by Antonius Primus, which defeated Vitellius glorius force.

As I claimed above. With all the cleverness of Vespasian building such an huge alliance, and getting his hands on the superior treasuries of the east, there was no emperor possible, if not the one Vespasian accepts. Vespasian joined the party very late. Therefore he had all the time to be best prepared. And it seems, that he accepted only Galba.

Of course, we don't know, if Vespasian would have accepted Calpurnius. Perhaps Titus was on his way to Rome, in order to negotiate with Galba about his succession. We simply, don't know.

Didn't Otho's supporters flock to Vespasian after the former's suicide? This is significant because it means, at the very least, those legions will remain under Galba/Otho's command. This situation seems to have the hallmarks of a three-way civil war, depending on how much fight Vitellius and his legions wish to give.
 
I'm pretty sure that Vespasian initially pledged to Otho before Vitellius killed him.

The situation during Othos rather short reign is a bit fuzzy.

My understanding is, that Vespasian let the legions pledge allegiance to Otho. But he himself did not. It also seems that he already was preparing his alliance this time. So it is unclear, if Vespasian was really supporting Otho, or if this pledge was just deception and distraction. Why should Vespasian support one of the two usurpators? IIRC, Vitellius legions have sworn too. Not to Galba, not to Vitellius but to SPQR, which was a clear message.

Same uncertainty with Antonius Primus and the pannonian legions. At the battle of Brediacum against Vitellius, Otho had just the praetorians and a new Legio I Adiutrix, which was quickly established using fleet soldiers. Antonius Primus and his legions did not arrive in time. So Otho was defeated by the superior Rhine Army. It is unclear, if Antonius' odd delay was intentional, because he already had an agreement with Vespasian at this point of time.

Imagine that Othos reign just lasted from January 15th to April 14th 69. A courier from Rome to Judaea needs about 2 weeks in best cases. From Pannonia to Judaea even at least a month. So communication amongst the commanders of the armies could not have been very efficient. Consecutively, Antonius Primus attacked Vitellius, when he reached northern Italy and defeated him. Even if Vespasian gave the order to wait for Mucianus' leading the eastern legions.

Its seems Vespasian prefered to bribe Vitellius anyways. With the support of the eastern client states and the rich provinces his warchest was full, and he controlled Egypt and the grain export to Rome.
 
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Well, coming back to the initial question of the OP, if an other emperor could rule longer.

Let's assume that Antonius Primus had no agreement with Vespasian and his delay was unintentional. So he attacked Vitellius in the name of the already beaten emperor Otho. Afterwards he conquered Rome, and now he heard of Mucianus marching to Italy. So he decided to surrender, gave the command to Mucianus, when he arrived. And of course he claimed, that he always fought for Vespasian. Sounds a bit weird to me.

Actually, Mucianus blamed him for his attack on Vitellius and Rome, and sent him to Vespasian, who was in Egypt this time. Vespasian honored Antonius Primus and sent him to retirement.

Now, what happens, if Antonius is loyal to Otho and is not delayed? Otho should win the Battle of Brediacum. Vitellius is defeated and the Rhine legions support Otho from now on.

Now Mucianus arrives in northern Italy. It is obvious, that Mucianus, who marched via the Hellespontus, started marching long before Otho was dead. Had he really orders from Vespasian to reenforce Otho? And why was Vespasian in Egypt at this point of time to control the grain export? Honestly I do not believe, that Vespasian was not planning to fight Otho.

But in our new scenario, with the Rhine army, the pannonian army and the praetorians, Otho has good chances to defeat Mucianus. Just if Mucianus really fights. Vespasian can simply block the grain support from Egypt and Otho is in serious trouble.

So finally it all comes down to 2 questions:

1. Did Antonius Primus have an agreement with Vespasian, when he marched to Italy?

2. Was Mucianus by order of Vespasian (initially) on his way to Italy to attack Otho?

I am convinced that yes in both cases. But I have to read a bit more about this civil war, before I could come to a final conclusion.
 
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