Is there a plausible TL where Japan attacks USA before 1939?

I file this away thou as it is an excellent escalation point that could make Japan starts a war whit USA even if it could involve other colonial powers under the right political leadership. Thanks! Rubber war has a nice ring to it also.
Thanks. I've heard Avgas was a possibility too, and that the soviets didn't really have enough production to support even themselves, though I don't know if that's true.

I cant recall the name, but shortly after the Panay sinking a US diplomat was struck by a Japanese soldier. Had the soldier taken it to the next level & bayoneted or shot the diplomat he would have carried things a lot further down that slope.
Also, Panay occurred on the 12th of Decembder 1937, the next day is when the Nanking massacre is often regarded to have started, so if the diplomat got killed, and then the massacre happened, well I can see relations taking a big downturn.
 
Thanks. I've heard Avgas was a possibility too, and that the soviets didn't really have enough production to support even themselves, though I don't know if that's true.

Avgas is not one of the problems for Imperial Japan as long as they are supplied whit raw oil. Early 30is Soviet had problems whit aviation fuel due to lack of refinery capacity and production standard.

I cant recall the name, but shortly after the Panay sinking a US diplomat was struck by a Japanese soldier. Had the soldier taken it to the next level & bayoneted or shot the diplomat he would have carried things a lot further down that slope.

Interesting as I newer heard of this incident. Do you have a source so I can see when and where it happens?

Also, Panay occurred on the 12th of Decembder 1937, the next day is when the Nanking massacre is often regarded to have started, so if the diplomat got killed, and then the massacre happened, well I can see relations taking a big downturn.

If could be used to force the civilian government into a internal power struggle whit the army as they make the civilian governments diplomats loose face. A failure to avoid embargo and other economic punishment wold make the army feel the civilian government have made Japan loose face and act accordingly and give Konoe an ultimatum to resign or die by January 1938.

More expensive oil (through proxy) and rubber shortage would make the Navy weak to so there is a common interest whit the army to break an embargo.

So someone else than Haranuma steps in as Prime minister if the military and the ultra-nationalists run the show now. Maybe we could have Ugaki ITTL as his health is better than 1939. Personal invested in the zaibatsu and former general governor of Korea.

Now to something that makes US, France and UK look week and not willing/unable to stomach another war. The zaibatsu push Haranuma to end the embargo as fast as posible and the military convince him the colonial powers can't stomach another costly war.

Its not perfect and feels a bit implausible in parts but if USA moves the pacific fleet closer to the Philippines in an exercise or something that could be interpreted as a direct threat against Japan then... its doable. :eek:
 
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