Is the US destined to go to war with an Independent CSA

yes the war would have come and CSA would have lost if
this guy was running the CSA
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and this guy was running the usa
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On the Alt HIstory Wiki I made a timeline describing an independent C.S.A that is it is independent until 1900, I seriously doubt that any csa could had survived beyond the first decade of the 20th century
 
On the Alt HIstory Wiki I made a timeline describing an independent C.S.A that is it is independent until 1900, I seriously doubt that any csa could had survived beyond the first decade of the 20th century

I say they couldnt get past the second half, the second world war one starts the US is going to take the side opposite to the one the CSA took.
 
The post-war CSA would be an...interesting place to say the least. In the immediate aftermath of the war you would see an influx of British and French investment which would stimulate the economy for the next few years. There would also be a very large industrial drive. The drive would come for one simple reason, the fact that the South will have to build a very large arms industry very quickly. Cannon foundries, arms factories, shipyards for a (albeit small) navy. The South's leaders weren't exactly stupid. It will be a case of expand or die. The Union may be defeated diplomatically in some cases, but militarily they will be far from finished.

This would leave the planters with a good hold on power for ten to fifteen years, but the fact that the industry would be forced to expand would mean that most likely by 1890 you have some competition coming from either foreign powers or internally developed competition.

Now understandably for various reasons they will not be able to keep up after 1915 and I give all semblance of internal stability till about 1920 until things begin to irrevocably collapse. This will be the low point for the South and by 1960 it won't even be a functioning country (maybe not even one country anymore).


Why would Britian and France invest in a vulnerable country with a basket case economy while there are so many safer places to invest? They have nothing better to do with their money? Any investments that GB and France make in the CSA will be at high interest rates or dividends.
 
Why would Britian and France invest in a vulnerable country with a basket case economy while there are so many safer places to invest? They have nothing better to do with their money? Any investments that GB and France make in the CSA will be at high interest rates or dividends.

Wouldn't private companies in GB and France invest in other private companies in the CSA stimulating job growth and stabilizing the country?. Companies make plenty of risky investments, they just have to have a big enough reward.
 
Wouldn't private companies in GB and France invest in other private companies in the CSA stimulating job growth and stabilizing the country?. Companies make plenty of risky investments, they just have to have a big enough reward.

Exactly, which is why I said high interest or dividends. High reward means high interest rates or dividends. This makes for very expensive capital which severely limits investment. Every dollar it pays in interest or dividends is a dollar it can't invest. Meanwhile the US paying half the interest rate or less is going to expand much quicker. Even Mexico might expand quicker and pass the Confederacy around 1890 or 1900.
 
Well, let's do some reasonings here:

The Union will have made some progress in tearing down the Confederacy. That said, there are several points of contention between the two countries:

-Where to draw the borders (West Virginia? Tennessee? Transit rights on the Mississippi?)
-Tensions over slavery (Southern Bounty Hunters and Northern Abolitionists)
-Unionist Minorities in the South

The Confederacy will amaze everyone by spontaneously giving up slavery the day after independence and building a libertarian utopia that annexes every nation down to Argentina in a new, egalitarian future.

OK, now that I have everyone's attention...

Slavery is the ideological foundation of the Confederacy; this is as important as Sharia Law to the Taliban or the "inherent superiority of the Yamato people" to Japan. It can't be compromised or lost without basically giving up on everything accomplished in its banner.

This is 1/3rd of their people, and they have to suffer abuses like having their children sold for money.

What happens if they get a chance to do something? Would they simply be content for their freedom, or would they seek revenge? Now, how many guns and soldiers does it take to keep a third of a nation's population profitably enslaved?

Snake suggests that the Confederate Army winds up running the show. I suspect that internal security would be a hugely important, if not all important task. I therefore think that the fugitive slave hunters of the 1850s will be codified and empowered as an arm of the Confederate Government. And if that task comes to dealing with "Uppity" free blacks or "Poor Cracker" farmers, I suspect this police force will probably handle the job.

I'm really unsure that the CSA would turn into a military dictatorship; I don't think he army will ever really surpass the political will of the plantations, and I think said plantations will probably look to build their own version of the Pinkertons.

I see a completely plutocratic South, one that has enshrined slavery evolving into one that has enshrined no rights for its lower classes. State's rights be damned, the planters will build a strong state that overrides the states if that serves their interests.

The United States will continue to move forward as the Confederacy makes its moves towards a police state. As in the Antebellum South, abolitionists are dangerous revolutionaries and need to be silenced. People that try to educate slaves are fomenting nascent rebellions, and god have mercy on any socialist who sets foot south of the Mason-Dixon line.

I'm also unsure that the Confederacy will be interested in massive expansion. The United States will guarantee Mexico's independence and will be unenthusiastic of any other moves south. The Confederacy could potentially aim for Cuba, but that leaves it with the ominous position of having another class of colored people to abuse.

The Confederacy must, above all else, avoid a rematch with the Union. Thus enjoined, the CSA would have to know either to remain neutral in global politics or pick the same one as the United States.

All of this is possible, and the CSA could survive as a quiet, dictatorial state. It would be a dark, cold place filled with violence, secret police agents and armed borders, but it has the slavery so desperately craved by its leaders intact.

Otherwise, the South explodes in a red revolution as the poor and the slaves make common cause and overthrow the planters and their secret police, which probably draws some kind of US response.
 
Otherwise, the South explodes in a red revolution as the poor and the slaves make common cause and overthrow the planters and their secret police, which probably draws some kind of US response.
I think that you've been reading too much TL-191:p
Well, let's do some reasonings here:

The Union will have made some progress in tearing down the Confederacy. That said, there are several points of contention between the two countries:

-Where to draw the borders (West Virginia? Tennessee? Transit rights on the Mississippi?)
-Tensions over slavery (Southern Bounty Hunters and Northern Abolitionists)
-Unionist Minorities in the South
With the boarders subject up I'd like to show off some maps again that I've made for an ATL I'm working on with a CSA victory. Could anybody comment on my logic in creating the boarders and let me know what improvements I could make?
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=227302
 
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I say they couldnt get past the second half, the second world war one starts the US is going to take the side opposite to the one the CSA took.

Why do so many people assume the USA and CSA will be on opposite sides in any World War? There's a significant chance one or both would stay neutral and they could even end up on the same side.
 
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