Let's assume the war on the western front ends quickly with a German victory. Could the war with Russia continue, and if so would a full German invasion of Russia be feasible? What similarities and differences does this kind of campaign have with 1812 and 1941?
Is the German Empire able to take Moscow and Petrograd in WWI?
- Thread starter NolanFoster
- Start date
That is true and I should have said both, but that would have made the title longer. Moscow is still a key prestige and industrial objective.
As far as I understand it, the German command didn't particularly want to take Petrograd during the First World War considering the amount of food and supplies it would take to even keep the city minimally fed - food supplies that were desperately needed in Germany itself, where the social fabrics in society were beginning to break down from lack of material goods and supplies (not to mention the vaunted Ukrainian harvests that didn't quite materialize). Germany was able to achieve all that it wanted with the collapse of Russia's field armies in 1917 and the signing of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk with the Bolsheviks - the capture of either Moscow or Petrograd or both really doesn't bolster the already overwhelming defeat inflicted on Russia - all it would do is drain already stretched German supply lines and probably have an unnecessary amount of casualties all for a nice propaganda victory and a few more chips at the peace table (a table in which they already were feasting and possessed all the bargaining power)...
More trouble than it's worth - I could see them advancing to the suburbs of Petrograd as a way to menace Russia for additional concessions, but Germany needed food and a light of a garrison as possible for manpower in the West for their "grand offensive." Capturing two of Russia's largest/most important cities replete with revolutionary disorder doesn't quite stabilize their new holdings - it over-stretches them. This wasn't the mechanized panzer armies of the Second World War, Germany was on the ropes and needed a peace almost as much as the Russians did.
More trouble than it's worth - I could see them advancing to the suburbs of Petrograd as a way to menace Russia for additional concessions, but Germany needed food and a light of a garrison as possible for manpower in the West for their "grand offensive." Capturing two of Russia's largest/most important cities replete with revolutionary disorder doesn't quite stabilize their new holdings - it over-stretches them. This wasn't the mechanized panzer armies of the Second World War, Germany was on the ropes and needed a peace almost as much as the Russians did.
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Yes, I agree. The Germans have pressing concerns in 1917/18. But in 1914 or 1915, will a French collapse lead directly to the end of the war on the eastern front as well? If not, the full invasion of Russia will look like the solution to Germany's needs.
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What if the Bolsheviks went along with Bukarin's "Revolutionary War" (without an army) and just refused to sign a peace treaty?
They didn't have to. Germany wanted to defeat Russia and slice up western chunks for themselves and various allies, not occupy it as a unit. What did they care what happened in Moscow?
Was not Moscow a major hub for the railways? That's one reason to take it, or at least make sure it under control in some way.
I mean they didn't in OTL and they got everything they could possibly want.
To do so would've require the logistical ability to pull something off of that magnitude (doubtful) and the desire to do so (nonexistent).
The Germans (and A-H) barely knew what to do with the Ober Ost, a slice of what's now Belarus, and half of Ukraine once they had them occupied... it was all ad-hoc it seems. Expanding further into Russia "proper" and effectively occupying it would've been a burden on manpower and resources that even Ludendorff would've balked at...
The Germans (and A-H) barely knew what to do with the Ober Ost, a slice of what's now Belarus, and half of Ukraine once they had them occupied... it was all ad-hoc it seems. Expanding further into Russia "proper" and effectively occupying it would've been a burden on manpower and resources that even Ludendorff would've balked at...
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
But in the scenario outlined by the OP, the French getting defeated early and the main action moving to Russia, would Russia sue for terms, and be granted terms, before the fighting has reached Petrograd and Moscow.
Judging solely from the OTL comparative performance of the 2 armies, I'd say yes, provided that social unrest didn't take down the Tsar and the government 1st...
Taking one or the other presents logistics and military challenges beyond what the CP of late 1917 was likely able to handle. And I presume the POD means there is a definitive treaty ending the war in the West? Why wouldn't Russia come to the table while she still had relative advantage? Does Italy join the CP if the victory is that fast and is Romania still neutral?
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Given the POD offered, the Germans have plenty of food and supplies - the war with France and Britain is over, they're not under blockade, a quick victory means Italy and Romania (and less importantly, Greece) never joined the Entente. It means that Austria-Hungary never had her military hollowed out by the Brusilov Offensive, so Germany isn't lugging around an ally that's just dead weight. It means the Ottomans are free to open up a meaningful second front with Russia; even if all they do is stare at the Russians and look menacing, Russia still needs to deploy troops.
Germany and Austria-Hungary are absolutely capable of taking Moscow and Petrograd in this scenario, if somehow the Russian Empire hasn't sued for peace long before either city is besieged.
Germany and Austria-Hungary are absolutely capable of taking Moscow and Petrograd in this scenario, if somehow the Russian Empire hasn't sued for peace long before either city is besieged.
As @Alternator has said : the CP would be very well able to achieve the asked for tasks.
For the differences to the other attempts in modern history :
For the differences to the other attempts in modern history :
- Logistics (... ofc
) : ITTL the logistical task and capabilioties are much better adjusted to each other than at any of the other- compared to 1812 : there actually ARE any logistical means to speak of at all and there is - at least at the german side as I know of - a damn awfull lot of brain assigned to in terms of where getting what as well as how getting it there, foot-, hoove-, bark- and railbased. Napolean at least thought more about it as other contemporary his preparations were far from anything up to the task ... to reach Moscow. ... what he actually hadn't planned as such but Kutusow forced him to do so.
- compared to 1941 : the logistical capabilities are much more adjusted to the pase the front can take. While in 1941 there was a ... "speed-gap" as despite all the efforts put in the logistical transportation was still mainly - if not overwhelmingly - based on foot and hoove. While the advancing troops were riding on motorized wheel and track.
- due to the compared to 1941 rather slow(er) advance there is also the possibility of utilizing much more the baltic ports for supply of the advancing troops compared to esp. 1812. ... and maybe even also to 1941 (?).
- about the availability of supply ... see the comments already made : with the western front gone and "open seas" for the CP I can't see any considerable shortages.
why the russian side would continue to fight at all.
So if the war in the west ends quickly, will Germany still try to gain the Ukraine, etc. from Russia? That would make this necessary.
What is 'quickly'? If Germany takes Paris in 1914 then Russia probably settles on a peace while she still has troopa on German soil. If it's a breakthrough in the West circa late 1916, Russia probably tries to settle for lands already occupied more-or-less.
So I think this is part of my question: what incentive does Germany have to deal on anything less than total domination at this point? Why is it that the Russians immediately suing for peace wouldn't simply encourage bigger German demands? They've just established supreme confidence in their military abilities. They will believe forcing Russia to deal with the terms they really want is a matter of another quick campaign after taking Paris in 1914 or 1915.