Is Pearl Harbor avoided if the USA doesn't control the Philippines?

[Super_Cool]

Japan attacked Pearl Harbor because they wanted the Dutch East Indies and the Philippines were in the way. Thus, attacking Hawaii would weaken the fleet meant to protect it. Suppose butterflies make it so the USA doesn't control the Philippines after the Spanish-American War due to a stronger anti-imperialist lobby.

Does the USA still get attacked by Japan due to the oil embargo?

 

[TFSmith121]

Probably not...

Japan attacked Pearl Harbor because they wanted the Dutch East Indies and the Philippines were in the way. Thus, attacking Hawaii would weaken the fleet meant to protect it. Suppose butterflies make it so the USA doesn't control the Philippines after the Spanish-American War due to a stronger anti-imperialist lobby. Does the USA still get attacked by Japan due to the oil embargo?

Probably not... if the only territory the US has west of the Dateline is Guam, Wake, etc., there's no threat - and if the US doesn't occupy Guam in 1898, its even less likely.

All else being equal, and depending on whether the PI are an independent republic or not, the Japanese may simply go straight for Indochina and the NEI/Indonesia both in 1940-41, which puts the British in a bind.

Best,

 

[Booster Gold]

As long as the US has substantial business interests in China, they're not going to look very kindly on someone rolling in and taking over.

 

[Namayan]

Probably not... if the only territory the US has west of the Dateline is Guam, Wake, etc., there's no threat - and if the US doesn't occupy Guam in 1898, its even less likely.

Depending on whether the PI are an independent republic or not, the Japanese may simply go straight for Indochina and the NEI both in 1940-41, which puts the British in a bind.

Best,

Going to invade DEI only happens if USA embargoes Japan. Nor do we even know USA and Japan are of opposite sides.

Since the Pod is earlier than 1898, we dont even know if the British kept Japanese alliance which would have changed both the international decisions of Japan and would have affected domestically especially with British influence.

The problem I believe with the OP is it assumed that everything went OTL until 1941 even with a PoD before 1900.

 

[TFSmith121]

Sure, but if the Japanese want an oil supply in their

Going to invade DEI only happens if USA embargoes Japan. Nor do we even know USA and Japan are of opposite sides. Since the Pod is earlier than 1898, we dont even know if the British kept Japanese alliance which would have changed both the international decisions of Japan and would have affected domestically especially with British influence. The problem I believe with the OP is it assumed that everything went OTL until 1941 even with a PoD before 1900.

Sure, but if the Japanese want an oil supply in their own hands in the early Twenthieth Century, then Indonesia is pretty much it.

Best,

 

[cpip]

Japan attacked Pearl Harbor because they wanted the Dutch East Indies and the Philippines were in the way. Thus, attacking Hawaii would weaken the fleet meant to protect it. Suppose butterflies make it so the USA doesn't control the Philippines after the Spanish-American War due to a stronger anti-imperialist lobby.

Does the USA still get attacked by Japan due to the oil embargo?

Well, it's possible that the Philippines get granted their independence sometime after the Spanish-American War and before the start of the Second World War -- there were various efforts along that regard, after all.

However, butterflies in that regard might question if the United States fleet deploys forward; and if it doesn't deploy forward, does Japan still see it as a threat? And is there an oil embargo at all?

 

[docfl]

Well they were scheduled for independence in a few years anyway. What if they were spun off in 1935?

 

[Just a Rube]

Well they were scheduled for independence in a few years anyway. What if they were spun off in 1935?

The US probably still keeps some naval bases there (as noted, there were significant US interests in China, which the US will want to protect), and will certainly retain strong influence on the newly "independent" government.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

....

Does the USA still get attacked by Japan due to the oil embargo?

It was not just a 'oil' embargo. The trade embargo the US and Britain imposed together covered everything. Japanese bank accounts in US and Britian were frozen, Japan was very dependent on loans from those same banks & the loans ceased. Machine tools, chemicals, lumber, scrap steel, alloy metals... its a very long list of important imports that were cut off. Not just from the US and British Empire but from every nation the two could persuade, which was most nuetral nations. This included contracting foreign flagged ships to service apans imports/exports. Through 1939-1940 roughly 40% of the material crossing Japans docks were carried by foreign flagged ships. Abruptly in mid 1941 those ships ceased calling & Japan was cut off from both imports of critical items, but also no longer had the shipping capacity to both export to the remaining few remaining nuetrals, and service cargo internally in Japans empire.

Th economic shock was more devastating than if the little group of B17s in MacAurthurs little FEAF had started bombing Japan. While the Japanese had tried to prepare for such a event the blow was devastating to Japans. Worse if it dragged on for a year or more it could cripple Japans economy for over a decade.

 

[TinyTartar]

The Phillipines were an obstacle, but things like the embargo which was truly far reaching were far bigger issues for Japan.

Pearl Harbor is not contingent on US possessions, but rather US economic policy. The Japanese really did not desire the land they took from the US (Phillipines, Guam, Wake, etc.), but they did desire an end to our Pacific fleet and commercial opposition.

 

[Driftless]

Well they were scheduled for independence in a few years anyway. What if they were spun off in 1935?

What would the Japanese do in the event of an independent Philippines - with US Naval & Air Forces at Subic Bay and Clark airfield (and others perhaps)?

 

[sloreck]

The PI were a noose around the neck of any Japanese supplies coming from SE Asia. As long as they were a functioning US base the Japanese could conquer all the bits of SE Asia they did OTL but getting the stuff back to Japan was going to be iffy. The Japanese knew if they attacked the PI it meant war with the USA and to win that war (make the gains they needed and then the "soft" USA would fold) they had to take out the US fleet. Hence Pearl Harbor.

If the USA does not take the PI from Spain in the wake of the Spanish-American War but rather lets them become independent, and as a result there aren't US bases there, then Japan may decide to go for SE Asia and leave the USA alone (the PI on its own would never be a threat). Even OTL it is not clear if the USA would have gone to war with Japan to prevent the takeover by them of European imperial possessions. In the scenario outlines this would be even more likely. After all, it was all FDR could do to get support to France and the UK against Germany and that was to protect Europe. I can't see the isolationists sending Americans to die to save the colonies of the UK, France, and Netherlands.

PH still might happen here but if Yamamoto sees a way to get what Japan needs and avoid a war with the USA he, among others, will push for that

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Even if the Americans do grant independence to the Philippines before 1941 the country would still be part of America's "informal empire." The USA will retain substantial commercial interests in the country and they would have a moral obligation to defend the independent Philippines even if there isn't a mutual defence treaty providing a legal one. IOTL the USA retained military bases in the Philippines after independence and they probably do ITTL as well. It's close to China and therefore a handy base for their China Squadron (i.e. the US Asiatic Fleet) and having the far eastern base in the Philippines also acts as a deterrent to the Japanese. Therefore the IJN will still feel compelled to knock out the US Pacific Fleet so they would still attack Pearl Harbour.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The PI were a noose around the neck of any Japanese supplies coming from SE Asia. As long as they were a functioning US base the Japanese could conquer all the bits of SE Asia they did OTL but getting the stuff back to Japan was going to be iffy. The Japanese knew if they attacked the PI it meant war with the USA and to win that war (make the gains they needed and then the "soft" USA would fold) they had to take out the US fleet. Hence Pearl Harbor.

If the USA does not take the PI from Spain in the wake of the Spanish-American War but rather lets them become independent, and as a result there aren't US bases there, then Japan may decide to go for SE Asia and leave the USA alone (the PI on its own would never be a threat). Even OTL it is not clear if the USA would have gone to war with Japan to prevent the takeover by them of European imperial possessions. In the scenario outlines this would be even more likely. After all, it was all FDR could do to get support to France and the UK against Germany and that was to protect Europe. I can't see the isolationists sending Americans to die to save the colonies of the UK, France, and Netherlands.

PH still might happen here but if Yamamoto sees a way to get what Japan needs and avoid a war with the USA he, among others, will push for that

If the USA doesn't formally colonise the Philippines after winning the War of 1898 it would become an informal colony like Cuba. That would include a mutual defence treaty and American military bases in the Philippines so the attack on Pearl Harbour probably still happens.

The only way I can think of preventing Pearl Harbour is if the Spanish Government decides it cannot defeat the guerrillas before the War of 1898 broke out. It grants the Philippines independence or sells them (and Guam) to the Germans as they did their other Pacific Islands in the wake of the Spanish-American War. In either case the Japanese would be formally or informally in control of the Philippines by 1940. In the first case they gradually take over in a similar fashion to Korea and Manchuria. Or in the second case the Japanese capture the Philippines and Guam in World War One and keep them as League of Nations Mandates in the peace settlement. They got most of the German Pacific Islands that way IOTL.

 

[jahenders]

If the US isn't in the Phillipines, it removes one of the greatest points of contentions/risk for either side. This would presumably mean that the US either didn't win PI in 1898 or that they quickly gave it true independence.

The US would still be somewhat involved in China and would protest Japanese actions there.

However, having far less of a 'dog in the fight' (and far less ability to project power in the area), the US might not impose an embargo and the two can remain in tense peace.

Whether or not there's a US embargo, Japan will try for the East Indies. If the US isn't in PI, then the biggest potential thorn in Japan's side is eliminate and they'll likely proceed without bothering with the US.

If the US isn't attacked in PI and HI, they're not likely to declare war for a while over Japan attacking UK assets and the Dutch. They'll eventually get drawn into the war, but it'll be at least a few months later and with an even stronger "Germany First" strategy. At least initially, they'll mainly have a holding action and build-up in the Pacific.

Japan attacked Pearl Harbor because they wanted the Dutch East Indies and the Philippines were in the way. Thus, attacking Hawaii would weaken the fleet meant to protect it. Suppose butterflies make it so the USA doesn't control the Philippines after the Spanish-American War due to a stronger anti-imperialist lobby.

Does the USA still get attacked by Japan due to the oil embargo?

 

[HMS Warspite]

Japan attacked Pearl Harbor because they wanted the Dutch East Indies and the Philippines were in the way. Thus, attacking Hawaii would weaken the fleet meant to protect it. Suppose butterflies make it so the USA doesn't control the Philippines after the Spanish-American War due to a stronger anti-imperialist lobby.

Does the USA still get attacked by Japan due to the oil embargo?

The question could better be altered to: "What if the USA had a different policy toward the Pacific and did not use a military backing for it?" That would include a much less dominant political posture in East Asia and the Pacific as a whole, with no large expendures in the military and no Pacific Fleet to speak off, other than a coast defense force along teh West Coast.

The Philippines were a Casus Belli for the USA, sicne it was their principle colony and the USA used ot as a springboard for a policy in other parts of SE and East Asia as such, primarily China. If the USA had a different, more domastic USA only sort of Policy, as some Isolationalist proposed, there would not have been a war between Japan and USA at all, since the two would not have conflicting spheres of interest.

 

[Namayan]

The only way I can think of preventing Pearl Harbour is if the Spanish Government decides it cannot defeat the guerrillas before the War of 1898 broke out. It grants the Philippines independence or sells them (and Guam) to the Germans as they did their other Pacific Islands in the wake of the Spanish-American War.

The Spanish can sell Philippines before 1898 not after or during. Of course they can still sell the Philippines after but The buyer would have to fight a war just to get de facto control for a span of a decade or more just like what the US did in OTL.

Just dont know if other countries would have been hawkish enough and bold enough to take that risk absent of Germany.

In either case the Japanese would be formally or informally in control of the Philippines by 1940.

Not it is not a given.

The one that assured Philippine defense failure in otl 1941 was the US due to budget control.

Philippines given enough time and assets would have at least delayed Japan, more positively defeated the invasion force. For comparison, the Philippine Commonwealth had 12 Peashooters. Of which they shot down 3 zeros in a 5 to 1 disadvantage without any casulaties back in 1941. The Philippine military plan never really even got halfway including the planned bombers of 100 by 1946. in otl 1941, Philippines had like 3 B-10B. Even the army regulars was small for any significant defense. Even the Philippine Army back in 1899 fighting the Americans was larger and lasted longer from an invasion force in Luzon.

Even the same size air force of OTL 1941 Thailand military assets would have made a difference for the Philippine Commonwealth especially if I consider the rate of attrition the Japanese would have using OTL Philippine army air corps vs IJN stats.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

If the Philippines had won their independence, I could see Wilson signing an earlier Tydings MCDuffy Act, the US would still be a Pacific power. The US still has Hawaii, Guam and interests in China. Also as been said before the US would probably have a Navy base in the Philippines. Japan would see the US as an enemy. There would still be attacks on the US bases in the Pacific. There would be some butterflies. MacArthur would not be stationed in the Philippines. He probably would not be lobbying for liberating them Nimitz's plan to move on Taiwan might be become the strategy.

 

[Driftless]

If the Philippines had won their independence, I could see Wilson signing an earlier Tydings MCDuffy Act, the US would still be a Pacific power. The US still has Hawaii, Guam and interests in China. Also as been said before the US would probably have a Navy base in the Philippines. Japan would see the US as an enemy. There would still be attacks on the US bases in the Pacific. There would be some butterflies. MacArthur would not be stationed in the Philippines. He probably would not be lobbying for liberating them Nimitz's plan to move on Taiwan might be become the strategy.

With limited or no US military presence in the Philippines, maybe Mac is in China? That sends other billiard balls in motion.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Not it is not a given.

Wholly ungrammatical Batman.

If you meant Japan being in control of the Philippines and Guam by 1940 (if they became independent or were sold to Germany before the War of 1898 can happen) is not a given then I agree. However, its the most likely result and very likely at that.