Well, yes. If you keep the Nazis from launching WW2 (by involving the US and the USSR. the Nazis could have their "victory" -- but then the Nazis probably aren't the same Nazis of OTL. I'd predict implosion of the regime and/or a very cold war with Britain if 3 or 4. Don't see 1 or 2. 5 improbable. In all, an unbloodied USSR may opportunistically hover. On ideological grounds alone, I see an eventual showdown between the 2.
Well, for an ATL we have POD, so they are not likely our Nazi's. Even if we don't change any of the people involved, if we change events, the butterflies of the events will change the people involved. Hitler was a novice commander, and shows substantial evolution of thinking both for better and worse. I don't hold to the view the Nazi's were destined to make certain military judgments. And we can easily get a shuffling of people. Goering overdosing on pain medications and alcohol would drastically change how the Nazi military worked, as would Hitler having a trusted naval commander he listed too. For that matter, Hitler having a trusted army military adviser would also drastically change German decisions.
So we get to the title of thread and the first post, which basically says "All Nazi win POD are ASB", but if we really listed all the conditions we would get a statement that says "All Nazi win POD are ASB except for the one listed in the following 4 paragraphs of text".
Now to your rebuttal. I too don't think #1 or #2 are likely. But unlikely and ASB are vastly different items. Hitler winning in #1 or #2 is not less bizzare than some of the favorable things that happened to Prussia over the years.
On #3 and #4, I see it being a shooting (hot war), not a cold war. While neither side could use the bulk of its military at any given time, they would be using as much as possible. The rest of the details depend on the POD.
On #5, I am surprise people see this as impossible. Hitler under pressure made a deal with Stalin which is much more "ASB" than most alternative POD. OTL is one of the least likely possibility looking forward from 1937, 1938, or early 1939. There are dozens of POD that stop Hitler from invading Poland such as -- no deal with Stalin, Hitler dies or has illness, Poland compromises, Stalin invades/threatens another country, UK actually is able to communicate to Hitler it will go to war, France begins rearmament earlier/faster, UK begins rearmament faster/earlier, Stalin offers defense deal to Poland for border adjustment, etc. It is actually a decision that Hitler had trouble committing too, so it is an easy to change decision.
And we can look at other decision Hitler flipped flopped on - Tyrol was critical until Italy become a convenient ally, Japan replaced China, Anti Soviet to neutrality deal, neutrality deal to invading Soviets, reclassifying whole ethnic groups in the racial plan, 1/2 Jews can serve in army to kill all 1/4 Jews, naming his personal train Amerika to declaring war on America. Hitler is a great example of an erratic decision maker outside of his racial policies. And even these policies were not consistent in the tactical details. It amazes me that people say the Nazi's can't change. We can't make the Nazi good guys, but we can have them make different military and diplomatic decisions.