Is lesser geological changes considered ASB?

[Oddball]

@Grey Wolf

Yes, basicaly I agree with you. But first off all a POD like that is hard to track or defend.

IMHO the problem with the island of Tarrantry is that there is nothing in OTL that suggests that there could be something of that kind there.

Dont get me wrong, I basicaly enjoy the Tarrantry idea, but I would like to have this "new" land linked to something in OTL.

Plate tectonic or submerged mountainranges atleast give you some basis to change. But offcource we should not overdo it. What I would like to "clarify" is to what extent geological changes is accepted without be thrown ASB in your face.

Obviousley I would not like to have my timeline doomed ASB...

 

[Tyr]

Tarranty is ASB and would be even if there was evidence I island could exist there. This is because the Tarranty tl is the same as ours just with the addition of this island- they even get onto the same WWs as us I believe.

 

[Oddball]

Tarranty is ASB and would be even if there was evidence I island could exist there. This is because the Tarranty tl is the same as ours just with the addition of this island- they even get onto the same WWs as us I believe.

So what your saying is that all ATL's have to make substantial changes to OTL?

No ATL could be made that introduces only local or regional changes to OTL?

Or is it just Tarrantrys size and geographic possition (not if it could exist or not) that makes you say ASB?

 

[Grey Wolf]

Tarranty is ASB and would be even if there was evidence I island could exist there. This is because the Tarranty tl is the same as ours just with the addition of this island- they even get onto the same WWs as us I believe.

Oh well, that is true - in general. There IS a substantial 'back-history' for Tarrantry (either kept by Herrick or, hiss spit, Theodore) which deals with the kingdom's history and how that has interplayed with ours. This even changes a lot of minor OTL facts, without ever changing anything major.

Of course, you are going to say the OVERWHELMING LIKELIHOOD is that the existence of this island where it was would change human history beyond all recognition from at least the Roman Empire period onwards

Perhaps History does not operate on overwhelming likelihoods ? Perhaps Alternate History is all a bit of fun ? Though on that one would have to say that a lot of Tarrantry people do seem RATHER obsessed and obsessive (hiss spit Theodore being not even the major one, hiss spit)

I don't know though why it would require Alien Space Bats, as opposed to just extreme unlikelihood ? Its not a route I would go down for Alternate History, but I don't think its unique - the creation of and extrapolation of countries in the midst of Europe etc.

Grey Wolf

 

[swamphen]

Though on that one would have to say that a lot of Tarrantry people do seem RATHER obsessed and obsessive

Not me, though. I keep threatening to cross Tarrantry with my own Star Trek TL circa 2380.

"Captain Rene Delacroix XXIV, CO USS Sans Souci, Akira-class, arriving..."

 

[Oddball]

Please forgive me, but

With the recent influx of GAH's I allow myself to bump this thread

To be honest I find the discussion interesting

 

[Thande]

For my tuppence, and using Tarrantry as an example: the idea of there being an island there is not ASB, because a minor current in the mantle being different however many million years ago leads to an upthrust and...

However, it IS ASB for 1) this not to change everything so, for example, humans don't appear as we know them, and 2) for the island to have sod-all effect on world history until the Napoleonic Wars.

Ditto for Stirling's Draka, even though that isn't a geographical one - it's as though this superpower Africa just 'appeared' in 1942, rather than the POD being in the 1770s - we still have a Nazi-Soviet war, etc...

If you're going to do something like that, then why not just HAVE it as a literal ASB, e.g. advanced aliens/bizarre spatial phenomenon replacing an area of sea with the island of your choice, populated how you will, and then you don't need to explain why at no time before your chosen time period did said island have an effect on world history.

And just because it's an ASB POD doesn't mean you can't write a detailed timeline (*cough* Washington's Warlocks *cough* )

 

[DuQuense]

Given that whe don't know what causes the currents in the Earths mantle to flowlike they do, posulating a change in them [like the wiggling of the Gulf Stream , or the El Nino Currents] Is not ASB.

?What you do with history afterwards is what would make it ASB?
Having Kroatoka erupt in 1780 instead of 1880, is not ASB, [?Whats a hundred years on a Geological timescale?]
Having a Identical Napolianic war afterwards is.

For My Cameron TL I had the Cameroon Rift open 10.000 years ago, then just copied Brazils history over to the new area [Rift instead of Amazon] ie ASB

While [In real history] The Flooding of many of the Liberian Depressions would have changed the whole history of North Africa, Such that there would probally not have been a Roman Empire and then Portugal.

 

[aware of emptiness]

What I think is that as long as it is possible and realistic and could happen naturally, not involving any magic or implausibly violating known physical laws, i don't see why it should be judged ASB. Isn't the definition of ASB in the first place something that happens supernaturally or unnaturally??? As mentionned, geological and evolutionary AH is simply AH with a POD way back... I don't see how having changes in history that occur by nature is any more ASB than changes that occur by humans' will.

 

[Earling]

I tend to take the view that it is only ASB if it couldn't possibly plausably have happened. ATL can include many things that are very very unlikely by my determination and as such might have a reason why i don't like them, but there not ASB if it could have plausably occured.

I tend not to buy into the *omg, a small land mass existed off the relatively irrelevent European landmass as such Humans might not ever have existed!* croud, but it would surely have had some impact on humanity as soon as a boat capable of travel existing between the island and other powers. To argue they just never notice the island is ASB. On the other hand you could potentially have no one ever declare war on it and it never do anything, so history might play out the same. For example, if Iceland had never existed England (Britain) and France would likely still have fought throughout their history without substantial differences.

Ofcourse now someone will come along and claim how Isceland was essential to all European activity from 1000 onwards. And hey, it probably was.

 

[Oddball]

I tend not to buy into the *omg, a small land mass existed off the relatively irrelevent European landmass as such Humans might not ever have existed!* croud,

Exactly

but it would surely have had some impact on humanity as soon as a boat capable of travel existing between the island and other powers. To argue they just never notice the island is ASB. On the other hand you could potentially have no one ever declare war on it and it never do anything, so history might play out the same.

This is more or less how I think about it too

For example, if Iceland had never existed England (Britain) and France would likely still have fought throughout their history without substantial differences.

Good example!

 

[Tyr]

What I think is that as long as it is possible and realistic and could happen naturally, not involving any magic or implausibly violating known physical laws, i don't see why it should be judged ASB. Isn't the definition of ASB in the first place something that happens supernaturally or unnaturally??? As mentionned, geological and evolutionary AH is simply AH with a POD way back... I don't see how having changes in history that occur by nature is any more ASB than changes that occur by humans' will.

Not really no.
It is that but its also things that are super unlikely.
Sealion could well sucede if the royal navy all get totally drunk the night before and fail to show up to stop them- it doesn't involve any supernatural forces. But its really not very likely.

 

[Oddball]

Not really no.
It is that but its also things that are super unlikely.
Sealion could well sucede if the royal navy all get totally drunk the night before and fail to show up to stop them- it doesn't involve any supernatural forces. But its really not very likely.

I understand what you are saying, but were do we draw the border of what is super unlikely, unlikely, plausible, likely...

Anyhow, Im just nitpicking now...

 

[Oddball]

Geological PODs, involving changes far in the past, are generally put in ASB because they *ARE NOT HISTORY*, let alone alternate history. History is not just about the past, but about the known past of the human race. And we can talk about alternate history because it can be different simply from people making different decisions, which they make all the time.


Geological PODs have several problems.

1. A geologic POD which didn't talk about humanity wouldn't be about history at all, and therefore doesn't belong in the history discussion forums. There isn't enough traffic to create tiny-minority interest forums for alternate worlds not involving humanity.

2. A geologic POD which *did* involve humanity runs into the problem that the world is a different place before humanity even EVOLVES. At every stage of human development, the world is a somewhat different place. There's no way to put a line in the sand and say "this POD doesn't much affect humanity until NOW, at which point it causes a divergence". In particular, it's ridiculous to think that different global geography doesn't have any significant effect until the past thousand years or few thousand years, then all of a sudden you have recognizable civilizations dealing with a new landmass.

That's effectively "Earth has a different landmass, but the ASBs totally prevent it from changing weather patterns or ocean currents or animal migration patterns or anything else that would have affected human society and caused people to live and die on different days or ships to get lost or battles to get delayed or whatever... until the magic date when it starts to have an effect".

3. It's usually impossible to show how geologic PODs could come about without ASB intervention anyway. Geology follows laws such as plate tectonics which are actually a lot more predictable than the vagaries of human society, and which most board members don't know anyway.

Point 3 is actually the main theoretical reason I put these things in ASB, but points 1 and 2 are the main practical reasons that they don't make for good serious discussions where people can easily establish common background assumptions and work from there.

Well I guess we have the verdict

Not surprisingly I am not happy with this, but then you win some and you loose some...

No more rantings on this subject from me then

 

[Umbral]

Personally, I feel geological changes need to fulfill two criteria to avoid being ASB:

1) They must be events possible within known physical laws.

2) They must happen within recorded human history.

Thus a POD of "What if the Yellowstone supervolcano erupts in 1352?" is AH, because it satisfies both conditions. We may then proceed to imagine the effects on the societies existing at the time.

A POD of "What if the dinosaur-killer asteroid missed" which goes on to discuss the effects of humans coexisting with dinosaurs is ASB, because it misses condition 2.

Basically, if things happen too far back, it is impossible to speculate on the effects, the ripples just grow too big. And they must be geologically reasonable according to known science.

We need to be able to speculate on the effects on known history and peoples of a distinct, possible, change happening.

 

[Oddball]

1) They must be events possible within known physical laws.

I totaly agree, and I do not think there are many who would object to that

2) They must happen within recorded human history.

Yes, like Ian have ruled, "known past of the human race" is also a criteria. And by doing so by far the most alt geo scenarios goes ASB

I must just admit that Iv never tought that "known past of the human race" was a criteria and that is were I f***ed up

A POD of "What if the dinosaur-killer asteroid missed" which goes on to discuss the effects of humans coexisting with dinosaurs is ASB, because it misses condition 2.

Basically, if things happen too far back, it is impossible to speculate on the effects, the ripples just grow too big. And they must be geologically reasonable according to known science.

We need to be able to speculate on the effects on known history and peoples of a distinct, possible, change happening.

By all means, I have never meant a POD like this and still history developing like OTL not to be ASB.

Its just that I have this thing for small geographical changes. If you for instant put a resonable sized island, that can be dedended geological, somewere in the Indian Ocean were it does not affect the major currents and leaves it unknown until europeans discovers it in the 16th or 17th century, I just dont see why that should be ASB

Btw, I have absolutley no intention of challengin Ians statement, I just like to explain myself