Is it possible for TR to win in 1912?

Edward IX

Banned
Could Theodore Roosevelt win in 1912? Not as a getting the Republican nomination but as a third party cabidate? What does a third term look like?

Did Wilson win in part as a "galvanized Yankee" that is to say a Southern person who was a Northern Governor?
 

SsgtC

Banned
You need someone other than Wilson to be nominated by the Democrats for TR to have a realistic shot at winning. Wilson, like TR, was a Progressive. For TR to win, he needed Progressive Democrats to vote for him. But with a Progressive candidate of their own, they largely didn't. If the Democrats had nominated someone like William Jennings Bryant, then yes, I think TR could have won.
 
You need someone other than Wilson to be nominated by the Democrats for TR to have a realistic shot at winning. Wilson, like TR, was a Progressive. For TR to win, he needed Progressive Democrats to vote for him. But with a Progressive candidate of their own, they largely didn't. If the Democrats had nominated someone like William Jennings Bryant, then yes, I think TR could have won.
Wasn't WJB also of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party?
 
What about Champ Clark as the Democratic nominee?

Would he really have been much weaker than Wilson? He blocked Taft's agenda and let Wilson's through, so I get the sense he was more pragmatic than anti-Progressive in general. There's also the danger that any Progressive defectors from the Democratic ticket get split between TR and Taft. Throw in the fact that Wilson got half again as many votes as TR, and you'd need a really weak Democratic campaign to throw away such a large advantage. I just don't think it's possible for Roosevelt to have won on a third party ticket. Things might have gone better if he'd somehow gotten the Republican nod again.
 

SsgtC

Banned
What if more than just 12 States held a Primary in 1912? TR won 9 of the Primaries held, 8 in landslides. That may give him the steam he needs to win the 1912 Republican Nomination
 
What if more than just 12 States held a Primary in 1912? TR won 9 of the Primaries held, 8 in landslides. That may give him the steam he needs to win the 1912 Republican Nomination

It would be another 60 years before primaries really became the deciding factor in party nominations, and they were still a rather new thing at this time. I think it'd be too early to completely overturn the authority of party leadership at this time.
 

SsgtC

Banned
It would be another 60 years before primaries really became the deciding factor in party nominations, and they were still a rather new thing at this time. I think it'd be too early to completely overturn the authority of party leadership at this time.
I'm not saying to completely overturn it. But if more States held primaries, it would have given TR more delegates. IOTL, he had 466. He needed 540 to win. During the Primaries, he won 278. A few more States hold a Primary, and he gets the 74 delegates he needs
 
You need someone other than Wilson to be nominated by the Democrats for TR to have a realistic shot at winning. Wilson, like TR, was a Progressive. For TR to win, he needed Progressive Democrats to vote for him. But with a Progressive candidate of their own, they largely didn't. If the Democrats had nominated someone like William Jennings Bryant, then yes, I think TR could have won.


Why?

He might have scared off some of the more conservative "Cleveland" Dems, but

a) Most of those had already gone over to the Republicans in the 1890s, so there were relatively few to lose.

b) Any remaining Cleveland Dems who defected would switch to Taft, not TR. If Bryan was too radical for them, so would TR be.

c) Even if Bryan lost a percentage point or two to TR (and there's no obvious reason why he should) he would probably gain a similar number from Eugene Debs. so it would be pretty much of a wash.
 
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