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Hi! I was reading all of these ideas where a king dies early and history changes. So, it occurred to me: supposed an unnamed, unrecorded peasant dies in the year AD 500 in France. Could the death of an individual peasant change history? If so, how?

Obviously, the peasant himself could not talk to kings or influence royal decrees and so forth, and it would be unlikely that the king or even many royal governors know him/her personally. However, consider the following.

1. Six degrees of separation. Lots of people may know people who know this peasant. For instance, the lord of the manor may go to his/her funeral and keep him from doing something his/her supervisor needs.
2. A ruler somewhere down the line in medieval France may have this peasant as an ancestor (for instance, if a commoner is elevated to the aristocracy on the basis of merit).

How much of an effect (on average) could the death of a single peasant have hundreds of years later?

Here's a case you can consider: a 20-year old woman who has had a child survive infancy dies in childbirth whereas in OTL s/he survives. You can also consider the case where someone who dies in OTL survives.

Thanks in advance,

ACG
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