Is it possible for East Germany to exist into the 21st century if in Soviet Union still breaks up?

iVC

Donor
3. A Germany that would look to befriend Eastern Europe to counterbalance it's frenemies in Western and Central Europe and almost certainly succeed, since those also are much more pro-US and anti-Russia then the rest of the EU.

Hell if you REALLY want to frighten everyone else, have Germany maintain or expand on her CW era force sizes, from a fear that she'll be victim to French or English aggressions otherwise. Or even better, have her withdraw from the NNPT and then immediately detonate a test warhead. Assuming she can't get ironclad American guarantees regarding protection from her "NATO allies"

West Germany-Polish discrepancy on the question of GDR-Polish border would be just enough. Declaration about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Warsaw_(1970) reconsideration in case of reunification would create enormous pressure in the Eastern Europe.
So we do have another POD: what if West Germany actually promised to semi-forcibly reconsider border treaty with Poland in case of reunification? (Imagine IRL OTL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Polish_Border_Treaty_(1990) went badly).

So, FRG declares an intention to redraw it's eastern border in case of reunification, shit hits the fan, Thatcher and Mitterand/Chirac begin their 'an old enemy is returning' speeches and also there is an opposition within the Soviet Union (patriotic Yeltsin wants to oust benevolent Gorby). More of this, economic reforms of the Czech Velvet Revolution fails somehow along with Czech wealth status diminishung - thus wave of 'Ostalgie' hits the Eastern Europe and severely disrupts the reunification momentum in GDR.
 
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I presume their point (UK/France/Italy/Benelux) would be 'let them leave but don't allow the united government'. So basically we would have type of ruined rump-state (something like german version of 90's Bosnia-Herzegovina) to the east of Elbe.

Again, it comes down to "Who is going to step up to the plate and stop the two German states from reuniting?"

The USA has no interest, and is in fact, entirely for it.

The USSR is too busy imploding faster then a U-boat below its operating depth, and even if did manage to intervene... well it turns out that if you aren't paying your troops they tend to be pretty piss poor fighters.

Benelux, well it'd be pretty hilarious watching the ten pound purse dog trying to take on the 120 pound timber wolf.

Italy doesn't even have a border with Germany. So they're out too.

And I suspect that England and France lack the political will to make a serious attempt at stopping it.
 

iVC

Donor
Again, it comes down to "Who is going to step up to the plate and stop the two German states from reuniting?"

So you're utterly sure that West Germany desire to reunification would be so overwhelming, aren't you? Overwhelming enough to actually put on risk their long-time connections with half-an-Europe? Overwhelming enough to persuade US not to give a f--k about NATO members raising a rebellion flag against possible German reunification?

I'm sure West Germany government would step back a little, and tries to find any other, masked or informal ways to affiliate East Germany some time later. Maybe using confederation state form. Maybe using some kind of a treaty.

And I suspect that England and France lack the political will to make a serious attempt at stopping it.

But the possibility of them doing so is not so impossible, eh?
Thatcher later wrote that her opposition to reunification had been an "unambiguous failure". Seems like she was a bit of determinator type.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...er-had-deep-misgivings-reunification-germany/
 
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So you're utterly sure that West Germany desire to reunification would be so overwhelming, aren't you? Overwhelming enough to actually put on risk their long-time connections with half-an-Europe? Overwhelming enough to persuade US not to give a f--k about NATO members raising a rebellion flag against possible German reunification?

I'm sure West Germany government would step back a little, and tries to find any other, masked or informal ways to affiliate East Germany some time later. Maybe using confederation state form. Maybe using some kind of a treaty.



But the possibility of them doing so is not so impossible, eh?
Thatcher later wrote that her opposition to reunification had been an "unambiguous failure". Seems like she was a bit of determinator type.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...er-had-deep-misgivings-reunification-germany/

The same also goes for the NATO states. Are they THAT willing to throw it all away just over what Germany *Might* do? And I should add, they'd be directly opposing the stated democratic will of the people they claim to cherish. History would suggest that no, they are not.
 
So, nobody provided any evidence of state wide desire to prevent the unification - and the willpower of greatly antagonizing the two main armies of NATO. All there's is some private dialogs between head of governments, some which are...well...the italian prime minister, really?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
I'm sure West Germany government would step back a little, and tries to find any other, masked or informal ways to affiliate East Germany some time later. Maybe using confederation state form. Maybe using some kind of a treaty.
... what, in effect, would have the same effect when called "Reunification".

Therefore : nothing won (in terms of your goal preserving a kinda functional GDR)

And ... even if you get the Wallies (GB, France, Benelux and - for whatever improbable reason the US) to disagree on any closer german-german relation ... @Jotun as well as @Drizzt have already pointed towards the even greater disadvantages it would bring.


In the short, middle as well as long(er) run everybody would substantially loose, if these stupid, two generations (or even longer) old prejudices of a "German Scare" would be served.

Not al least economical. Pls don't forget western germany at this time was the leading industrial economy worldwide, paymaster of the EU (as still of today). The following "desinterest" of western Germany in economic "cooperation" would be greatly reduced, due to the costs of dealing with the people of the GDR, now resident in the FRG (voting withe their feet).

The GDR would become a "ghost country" deprived of its people (beside a few imperturbable SED-members, serving their gerontocrats). Probably the (perhaps) remaining SU armed forces would well outnumber remaining germans.
And I don't think even Thatcher or Mitterand would be willing to pay the price for stationing troops on the german-german border (what they still were entitled to after WW2) to shoot on refugees to keep them in the GDR. ... Not the best of a press they could gain with modern TV-coverage of such events.
 

iVC

Donor
Is it possible for East Germany to exist into the 21st century if in Soviet Union still breaks up in 1991?
I understand that East Germany united with West Germany in 1990.

How about a Berlin Wall still standing in 2017?

The same also goes for the NATO states. Are they THAT willing to throw it all away just over what Germany *Might* do?

In the short, middle as well as long(er) run everybody would substantially loose, if these stupid, two generations (or even longer) old prejudices of a "German Scare" would be served.

I do in general agree with every suggestion you wrote. :)
But the OP question was: was it possible for East Germany to prolont it's existence?

Yes, it was technically possible. Yes, it would require several big IFs:
  • if West Germany decides to reconsider german borders after the planned reunification thus creating a new round of mentioned 'German Scare'
  • if european coalition of states, which were OTL opposed to unification, decides to stubbornly refuse to allow it, using official diplomacy, trade deals and maybe blackmailing
  • George Bush needs to ba fairly ambivalent
  • if East Germany would somehow be afraid of transitional period to capitalism (Small nitpick: the FRG constitution didn't allow the DDR to join the FRG straight, but only as the individual provinces. A result of this is that those that served in the DDR armed forces and police aren't allowed to use their former ranks and get far lower pensions than those serving during WW2 as they served a foreign country. Rumors about Trabant and Vartburg closure also were proven true.)
  • GDR receives a membership in the EEC
  • if there was a certain turmoil in the Soviet Union which allows a certain powers within the soviet government to make a 'stumbling block'
  • if some powers in the european common market or in the West German govt were divided by the unification question (Union/FDP coalition falls apart maybe, solidarity tax idea is not accepted)
  • only few people seriously expected reunification even in mid-89, as soon as the wall fell things gained an incredible momentum, so the Wall still standing may be of assistance.
So, there is still too many 'IFs'. It was very unlikely all of them had been put in motion. So the survivability chances for the East Germany were slim. Most likely, this improbable event would not lead to anything good. Most likely, this would be a great split of Europe and a revival of the forgotten confrontations unheard since beginning of the century and WWOne. Perhaps this would be even a revival of the Mitteleuropa project. And, yes, if GDR survived by 2000s then this country would be more alike 1991 USSR - unstable, hyperinflated, with huge social unrest and political instablilty.

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"«Two skeletons in the closet» of the German reunification", Voronov.
"Mitterrand, the End of the Cold War, and German Unification", Bozo.
https://www.thelocal.de/20151001/would-it-have-been-better-if-germany-stayed-split
 
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What if the Soviets had called it Prussia and promoted a different national identity, maybe even bring back old Prussian
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Actually I believe that allies preventing unification scared of a Nationalistic Germany would have turned into a self-fulfilling proficy...

And there where enough Soviet/ Russian troops in the GDR to keep the regime in power, provided someone is willing to give the order.
The army could have lived of the land with military supplies coming by ship.

And the FRG could have integrated the entire population of the GDR within its borders if it was really necessary, the country was rich enough. But I doubt that more than half the population would migrate

One of my biggest problem with Kohl is that he promised unification would be easy, without the need. People in the West mostly wanted it, and would have been willing to except more hardship.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
One of my biggest problem with Kohl is that he promised unification would be easy, without the need. People in the West mostly wanted it, and would have been willing to except more hardship.
Somehow I have severe troubles to imagine a Helmuth Kohl speaking out something true (at all during his political life).
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Having Kohl replaced by Späth in 1989 might help too. A relatively new and unstable government and maybe things go really wrong and Genscher breaks his neck falling from a balcony in Prague...
 
They could have gone for a much slower unification post-1989, and let ex-DDR first develop on its own for a decade with some help from the west if needed, and no 1-1 exchange rate. After that decade, reunification could have been considered if the people wanted it.
 
The wall is gone as soon as it is open. When I watched a nightlong of footage of November 9th a few years ago, I was amazed to see building machines already being brought into position in the early morning (apparently to open more of the blocked roads for checkpoints).

What if the Soviets had called it Prussia and promoted a different national identity, maybe even bring back old Prussian

The GDR did that to some extent, especially the army (unlike the Bundeswehr, the did "goosesteeping" in ceremonies).

But this could only really work in different borders which would e.g. ressemble the Prussia of 1807. However, the GDR incorporated Saxony who regard the Prussians as their nemesis. So they cannot just "Austrian" their way out of Germany. (Additionally, loosening the ties with Germany was made easier for the Austrians as they quickly realized that this time around, neutrality and an own identity would promise the best political and ecnomical results. The GDR however was stuck in the Warsaw Pact; with its abysmal economic principles..
 
Nope, you are wrong. Morgentau plan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgenthau_Plan) was created long before the end of war.
The Morgenthau Plan was Morgenthau's plan, nobody else's.
It was never policy.

So you're utterly sure that West Germany desire to reunification would be so overwhelming, aren't you? Overwhelming enough to actually put on risk their long-time connections with half-an-Europe? Overwhelming enough to persuade US not to give a f--k about NATO members raising a rebellion flag against possible German reunification?
Reunification was one of their national obsessions.
 
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