Is it possible for East Germany to exist into the 21st century if in Soviet Union still breaks up?

Only possible with POD in, say, 1945 where the Soviets seize all of Berlin and get away with it (so no Berlin wall) by concessions elsewhere. Stalin dies in 1946 and whoever takes over treats the people of the Eastern Zone much better than Stalin did. In the 1950s, the GDR is encouraged to develop an economy with quality production that trades with the West at least as much as with the East, and a regime that is far less repressive than the one that evolved under Stalin and his dogmatic successors. I can't think of a plausible scenario for this except one that results in the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union decades earlier than actually happened in our timeline. Such a collapse would make the suggested outcome meaningless.
 

iVC

Donor
The question of German reuinfication was widely discussed when an extraordinary European summit in Dublin in April 1990 took place.

Der Spiegel later described other European leaders' opinion of reunification at the time as "icy". Italy's Giulio Andreotti warned against a revival of "pan-Germanism" and joked "I love Germany so much that I prefer to see two of them", and the Netherlands' Ruud Lubbers questioned the German right to self-determination. They shared Britain and France's concerns over a return to German militarism and the economic power of a reunified nation. The consensus opinion was that reunification, if it must occur, should not occur until at least 1995 and preferably much later.

As late as March 1990 Thatcher summoned historians and diplomats to a seminar at Chequers to ask "How dangerous are the Germans?" and the French ambassador in London reported that Thatcher told him, "France and Great Britain should pull together today in the face of the German threat."

The pace of events surprised the French, whose Foreign Ministry had concluded in October 1989 that reunification "does not appear realistic at this moment". A representative of French President François Mitterrand reportedly told an aide to Gorbachev, "France by no means wants German reunification, although it realises that in the end it is inevitable." At the Strasbourg summit, Mitterrand and Thatcher discussed the fluidity of Germany's historical borders. On 20 January 1990, Mitterrand told Thatcher that a unified Germany could "make more ground than even Hitler had". He predicted that "bad" Germans would reemerge, who might seek to regain former German territory lost after World War II and would likely dominate Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakia, leaving "only Romania and Bulgaria for the rest of us". Mitterrand recognized before Thatcher that reunification was inevitable and adjusted his views accordingly; unlike her, he was hopeful that participation in a single currency and other European institutions could control a united Germany. Mitterrand still wanted Thatcher to publicly oppose unification, however, to obtain more concessions from Germany.

---

So I still can see a massive POD here.

Imagine a joint pan-european movement against German reunification. Imagine the threats from British and France to be actually declared and supported by Italy and Benelux. Imagine Yeltsin opposing benevolent Gorbachev position and declaring publicly that UUSR decision to allow German reunification must be reconsidered seriously. Imagine the British and French diplomats actually blackmailing US State Dept to end their NATO allegiance due to Soviet threat severely shrinking last years. Imagine Thatcher declaring that UK would put an end to the Special Nuclear Relations with USA if USA would continue to support German reinification movement. Imagine threats to break any diplomatic relationships with FRG.

There is no way German states would proceed with their union against the will of the Europe. We will enforce our decision to cage the Germany as we did it before! We would use every opportunity to keep the Europe peaceful and safe, even if it would mean severing of all our relationships with German state. We are hereby to admonish everyone in the world: We ARE the GREAT POWERS of EUROPE. (Thatcher/Chirac joint statement)

This is pure madness and most of the Europe is already in a turmoil. I think we should qualify this 'european rebellion' in a most serious way. (US ambassador in London).
 
Misgivings do not cut it. Neither France or Germany could do anything for long.
The Americans had given the green light, which is far more important.

And the French and British had a veto over the whole thing. All four powers had to consent. The US could lean on them, but in the end it was their decision to make. Reunification happened in 11 months from the time the wall fell until the reunification took effect. That was incredibly fast and all it would have taken to slow the process would be someone saying -- "hold on, we need to think about this and what it means for the future of Europe". Both the British and French could make this argument. As could the Soviets, for that matter. Given that Europe was in the process of unifying, and a larger Germany was a significant departure from a lot of assumptions that went into that, it wasn't an unreasonable question to wonder what the impact of a larger and more powerful Germany would be.
 
Then if they stop the German unification which country will maintain the East German economy and how to force people not to leave the country
 

Greenville

Banned
If there's no heavy push for reunification, I can see a corrupt government like post-Soviet Ukraine taking over and running East Germany like a command economy. Eventually trade and cultural pressure causes the holding of referendums for reunification into the next century.
 

Mitterand and Thatcher might be able to delay unification some years but can their successors? And Germans might be pretty annoyed when great powers not be willingful allow re-unification and probably Brits, French, Americans and Russians understand that it might be even more dangerous frustrate Germans. And big problem is how to keep East Germany viable country. East Germany was economically ruined and young and highly educated people was moving to west immediately when borders opened. If great powers would stop unification East Germany is totally wrecked nation. And East Germans even don't feel that non-communist Germany has anything purpose.
 
Again? :confounded::rolleyes:

Okay. The DDR was in such a shit state in ALL aspects that a state can be in a shit state that it would not have had a chance of a paper cat being chased through hell by a pack of asbestos dogs to survive for much longer without the USSR propping it up. Its export products were just as shit as its economy. The whole sorry excuse for a state would have collapsed through manpower drain. Millions of refugees to West Germany. Who would pay for them? West Germany alone? Fuck off. In order to keep two Germanies, the Four Powers would have had to prop up the DDR. The costs of Reunification to this day are somewhere between 1,2 and 2,0 TRILLION Euros. Rebuilding infrastructure and the economy alone was more than 300 billion Euros until thios day. Since you also have to rebuild the social net and all that, good luck to the Four Powers. While West Germany would certainly pitch in out of a patriotic sense of obligation, they would also be correct and within their rights to give the Four Powers the finger and say: You do not want us to reunify? Well, see how you prop up the DDR, we are out.

I understand the lure of reunified Germany being the boogey man for many, but this is starting to get ridiculous.
 
Last edited:
Mitterand and Thatcher might be able to delay unification some years but can their successors? And Germans might be pretty annoyed when great powers not be willingful allow re-unification and probably Brits, French, Americans and Russians understand that it might be even more dangerous frustrate Germans. And big problem is how to keep East Germany viable country. East Germany was economically ruined and young and highly educated people was moving to west immediately when borders opened. If great powers would stop unification East Germany is totally wrecked nation. And East Germans even don't feel that non-communist Germany has anything purpose.

I think the Germans would just unify anyways, with the support of the Americans, and the Brits and French would face a Suez situation. They know the Brits and French aren't going to put boots on the ground. Might even do it during the Gulf War.

Totally population-approved 2017 merging of Germany and Austria surely would NOT be allowed.
Just think about modern obsolete bans - Austrian military cooperation ban, Japanese aggressive military ban.

This old international treaties are still enforced somehow.

If those governments really wanted to overturn those bans, it would happen. Especially the latter, provided America supported it.
 
The Problem is that basically: What are France and the UK going to do if Germany ignores them and goes and does it anyways? Declare an embargo? Sanctions? Declare a War? Flat out nuke them?



Longsword is correct. The US is not interested in preventing the reunionification of Germany. The USSR has much bigger problems on it's plate at the time. And France and the UK lack the means to enforce their desires, short of something insane like starting a fight with Germany and presumably then the rest of NATO and the USA.

which would make no sense being 50 years since the end of the war. yes I know its still fresh in the minds of many people. however the idea at the end of the war was not to have a permanently divided Germany, that happened due to spheres of influence and politics.


As the Eastern Block disintegrated and Moscow's control weakened, self determination was the order of the day, you can not back freedom and self determination and yet deny the Germans the same thing, especially when West Germany was considered a very key US ally and the reunification is taking place at the will of the people and not at by the point of a gun.

Short of East Germnany turning into North Korea, no, reunification of Germany was as inevitable as the sun rising, just when, where and how.
These are Germans. A great example is Poland and the Baltics. split up, divided, occupied, invaded, erased, yet the national identity is so strong that Poland and the baltic states exist.
 

iVC

Donor
however the idea at the end of the war was not to have a permanently divided Germany, that happened due to spheres of influence and politics.

Nope, you are wrong. Morgentau plan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgenthau_Plan) was created long before the end of war. Actually, it was the Cold War which created the need of united West Germany to serve as military buffer with their eastern counterpart. The initial plans of WAllies were to completely disband and un-industruialize the german lands:

    • It should be the aim of the Allied Forces to accomplish the complete demilitarization of Germany in the shortest possible period of time after surrender and forever. This means completely disarming the German Army and people (including the removal or destruction of all war material), the total destruction of the whole German armament industry, and the removal or destruction of other key industries which are basic to military strength.
    • Partitioning of Germany:
  1. Poland should get that part of East Prussia which doesn't go to the USSR and the southern portion of Silesia as indicated on the attached map, (Appendix A).
  2. France should get the Saar and the adjacent territories bounded by the Rhine and the Moselle rivers.
  3. As indicated in part 3 an International zone should be created containing the Ruhr and the surrounding industrial areas.
  4. The remaining portion of Germany should be divided into two autonomous, independent states, (1) a South German state comprising Bavaria, Württemberg, Baden and some smaller areas and (2) a North German state comprising a large part of the old state of Prussia, Saxony, Thuringia and several smaller states.
  • There shall be a custom union between the new South German state and Austria, which will be restored to her pre-1938 political borders.
    1. The Ruhr Area.: (The Ruhr, surrounding industrial areas, as shown on the attached map, including the Rhineland, the Kiel Canal, and all German territory north of the Kiel Canal.)
      Here lies the heart of German industrial power, the cauldron of wars. This area should not only be stripped of all presently existing industries but so weakened and controlled that it can not in the foreseeable future become an industrial area.
 
Last edited:
Nope, you are wrong. Morgentau plan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgenthau_Plan) was created long before the end of war. Actually, it was the Cold War which created the need of united West Germany to serve as military buffer with their eastern counterpart. The initial plans of WAllies were:

    • Partitioning of Germany:
  1. Poland should get that part of East Prussia which doesn't go to the USSR and the southern portion of Silesia as indicated on the attached map, (Appendix A).
  2. France should get the Saar and the adjacent territories bounded by the Rhine and the Moselle rivers.
  3. As indicated in part 3 an International zone should be created containing the Ruhr and the surrounding industrial areas.
  4. The remaining portion of Germany should be divided into two autonomous, independent states, (1) a South German state comprising Bavaria, Württemberg, Baden and some smaller areas and (2) a North German state comprising a large part of the old state of Prussia, Saxony, Thuringia and several smaller states.
  • There shall be a custom union between the new South German state and Austria, which will be restored to her pre-1938 political borders.
    1. The Ruhr Area.: (The Ruhr, surrounding industrial areas, as shown on the attached map, including the Rhineland, the Kiel Canal, and all German territory north of the Kiel Canal.)
      Here lies the heart of German industrial power, the cauldron of wars. This area should not only be stripped of all presently existing industries but so weakened and controlled that it can not in the foreseeable future become an industrial area.
best laid plans of mice and men. however by the end of occupation and the final settlement treaty, said plans changed
 

iVC

Donor
Then if they stop the German unification which country will maintain the East German economy and how to force people not to leave the country

I presume their point (UK/France/Italy/Benelux) would be 'let them leave but don't allow the united government'. So basically we would have type of ruined rump-state (something like german version of 90's Bosnia-Herzegovina) to the east of Elbe.
 
Last edited:
What about East Germany surviving the same way the DPRK did (by ratcheting up oppression and militarizing itself)?

Not work. DDR wouldn't has any friendly great power as neighbor as NK has. DDR would be practically sieged by democracies in east, south and west. And it has very long land border. It would be impossible guard border and stop all foreign influence. DDR just can't pull North Korea without any support. North Korea at least has China.
 
Not work. DDR wouldn't has any friendly great power as neighbor as NK has. DDR would be practically sieged by democracies in east, south and west. And it has very long land border. It would be impossible guard border and stop all foreign influence. DDR just can't pull North Korea without any support. North Korea at least has China.
Well, support for a DPRK-esque East Germany could be provided by a Russian Federation more belligerant towards the West (like one ruled by Vladimir Zhrinovsky).
 

iVC

Donor
Well, support for a DPRK-esque East Germany could be provided by a Russian Federation more belligerant towards the West (like one ruled by Vladimir Zhrinovsky).

This would be literally impossible ITTL, due to post-soviet russian economic being literally fu--ed up because of severing former resource and tech relations between the former republics. Until 1999 there were a sheer numbers of demolished and forgotten industries. Zhirinovsky's Russia could be slightly better in matter of corruption prevention, but still too many of planned economy industries were useless in the modern times due to lack of logistic support from abroad. Zhirinovsky's Russia would barely keep on track itself, maybe slightly better than Yeltsin's OTL, but still would not be able to provide much of support.
 

Nebogipfel

Monthly Donor
Well, support for a DPRK-esque East Germany could be provided by a Russian Federation more belligerant towards the West (like one ruled by Vladimir Zhrinovsky).
And how would he do it ? Poland might not be too happy (and not would not allow Russian logistics running trough their territory). And in the GDR, with the exception of the staunched socialists, nobody would be willing to fight for such a state. You would need an earlier change in the SU/Russia, e.g. if they refuse leaving GDR. With several hundred thousand Russian soldiers on its territory, it could get a bit more interesting. But still, I don't see anything preventing unification at least with a post 1989 POD. It would just happen - IIRC constitution (sorry: Grundgesetz) of West Germany actually allowed East German states to join them whenever they decided to.
 
The problem with your scenario is that, everybody know or at least had to assume that this would only delay unification not prevent it forever, so they had to factor in the long-term consequences of trying to force Germany by any means short of war to stay apart.
I am sure France would have loved for Britain, Italy and the Netherlands to poison their future relationship with Germany to delay reunification. And Italy would have loved for France, Britain and the Netherlandsto poison their future relationship with Germany to delay reunification. And so on. But no one would have been willing to be that first one to play the bad cop.
They were not playing a strategy game with the objective of delaying German unification as long as possible. They had to look at the long haul.

If the scenario you describe had come to pass then, after say delaying unification by 10 years the price Germany's "EU partners" :p would have paid for that would be:
1. A Germany with much less of an ideological commitment to the "European Dream" and as willing to play hardball as anyone else instead.
2. A Germany that's the best friend of the U.S. 2nd or not perhaps not even even that compared to the UK.
3. A Germany that would look to befriend Eastern Europe to counterbalance it's frenemies in Western and Central Europe and almost certainly succeed, since those also are much more pro-US and anti-Russia then the rest of the EU.

10 years after that and you've basically created a de-facto Mitteleuropa. The Germany-less in TTL Eurozone would also lack any other of the Northern members being de-facto a Latin currency union with no more stability than somewhere between the Franc and the Lira. Wheras the Deutschmark has become the unofficial 2nd currency in much of Eastern Europe, giving Germany a de-facto currency union who's fellow members don't have any seats at the Central Bank nor can demand bailouts by threatening to bring it down.
Ironically history books in Britain and France will probably congratulate Thatcher and Mitterrand for their foresight about a resurgent Germany and how they wisely tried to prevent it.
 
The problem with your scenario is that, everybody know or at least had to assume that this would only delay unification not prevent it forever, so they had to factor in the long-term consequences of trying to force Germany by any means short of war to stay apart.
I am sure France would have loved for Britain, Italy and the Netherlands to poison their future relationship with Germany to delay reunification. And Italy would have loved for France, Britain and the Netherlandsto poison their future relationship with Germany to delay reunification. And so on. But no one would have been willing to be that first one to play the bad cop.
They were not playing a strategy game with the objective of delaying German unification as long as possible. They had to look at the long haul.

If the scenario you describe had come to pass then, after say delaying unification by 10 years the price Germany's "EU partners" :p would have paid for that would be:
1. A Germany with much less of an ideological commitment to the "European Dream" and as willing to play hardball as anyone else instead.
2. A Germany that's the best friend of the U.S. 2nd or not perhaps not even even that compared to the UK.
3. A Germany that would look to befriend Eastern Europe to counterbalance it's frenemies in Western and Central Europe and almost certainly succeed, since those also are much more pro-US and anti-Russia then the rest of the EU.

10 years after that and you've basically created a de-facto Mitteleuropa. The Germany-less in TTL Eurozone would also lack any other of the Northern members being de-facto a Latin currency union with no more stability than somewhere between the Franc and the Lira. Wheras the Deutschmark has become the unofficial 2nd currency in much of Eastern Europe, giving Germany a de-facto currency union who's fellow members don't have any seats at the Central Bank nor can demand bailouts by threatening to bring it down.
Ironically history books in Britain and France will probably congratulate Thatcher and Mitterrand for their foresight about a resurgent Germany and how they wisely tried to prevent it.


Hell if you REALLY want to frighten everyone else, have Germany maintain or expand on her CW era force sizes, from a fear that she'll be victim to French or English aggressions otherwise. Or even better, have her withdraw from the NNPT and then immediately detonate a test warhead. Assuming she can't get ironclad American guarantees regarding protection from her "NATO allies"
 
I presume their point (UK/France/Italy/Benelux) would be 'let them leave but don't allow the united government'. So basically we would have type of ruined rump-state (something like german version of 90's Bosnia-Herzegovina) to the east of Elbe.

And just imagine how THAT one would go over internationally :rolleyes: It would be a PR and foreign policy disater of the highest order. West germany would be absolutely within its moral rights to foist the refugees upon the Benelux states and France. The borders are nearly impossible to fortify against such an onslaught. In the rump DDR, famine and chaos would rule and thinking about it, I would HOPE that the rump DDR would take up terrorism against the Four Powers.
 
Top