Is it possible for East Germany to exist into the 21st century if in Soviet Union still breaks up?

The only way IMO is to get France and the U.K. to threaten or actually use military action to prevent it. And of course you need to somehow keep the eight hundred pound American gorilla out AND prevent their respective governments from imploding within the week.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Once the wall is down it is over, basicly.

It might be possible to stall unification till the SU breaks appart.

Maybe Russia is faling into chaos and not capable of negotiating anything.
THe Soviet troups are still in Eastern Germany, and Western Germany starts paying them Sold to stay in the Barraks untill things calm down.

But eventually the GDR will collaps.

Unless an Agressive Expansionist Russia replaces the Soviet UNion and declares martial law.
 
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longsword14

Banned
Over time, the economies of the two Germanies are practically one and when the Schengen Zone takes effect in 1995 following an East German accession to that treaty (which is distinct from East Germany joining the EU), East Germany remains technically a separate state with an economy integrated into that of West Germany. For various reasons since, reunification never gets off the ground and East Germany remains technically separate.
Open borders, free movement are allowed, but if the two halves decide to join up, it is not allowed ?
Strange world.
 

iVC

Donor
Open borders, free movement are allowed, but if the two halves decide to join up, it is not allowed ?
Strange world.

Totally population-approved 2017 merging of Germany and Austria surely would NOT be allowed.
Just think about modern obsolete bans - Austrian military cooperation ban, Japanese aggressive military ban.

This old international treaties are still enforced somehow.
 

iVC

Donor
Your source for this is?

In October 1955, the Federal Assembly passed a constitutional law in which "Austria declares of her own free will her perpetual neutrality." The second section of this law stated that "in all future times Austria will not join any military alliances and will not permit the establishment of any foreign military bases on her territory." Since then, Austria has shaped its foreign policy on the basis of neutrality.

After the Second World War, there has been no serious effort among the citizens or political parties to unite Germany and Austria. In addition, the Austrian State Treaty forbids such a union and the constitution required Austria's neutrality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_State_Treaty


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So it could be somehow realised as 'fake separation', like the reverse of 'fake marriage'. De-facto ITTL West and East Germany are united, de jure both countries are officially independent (maybe in the name only).
 
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oberdada

Gone Fishin'
[QUOTE="iVC, post: 15313480, member: 104643"
So it could be somehow realised as 'fake separation', like the reverse of 'fake marriage'. De-facto ITTL West and East Germany are united, de jure both countries are officially independent (maybe in the name only).[/QUOTE]

The disadvantages would be to great for everyone...
 

iVC

Donor
The disadvantages would be to great for everyone...

But british tea and french croissants remains undisturbed!
Really, I wonder if maintaining such separation would be necessary for some profits of the European common market.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
But british tea and french croissants remains undisturbed!
Really, I wonder if maintaining such separation would be necessary for some profits of the European common market.

I had a suggestion to have a formal Brexit without anything changing de facto, but to what end?
 

longsword14

Banned
Even if such a statement officially existed (which did not), this could only be upheld if popular support did not exist. This was simply not the case in Germany.
Hard power was out of question by the time being considered, and none of the EU nations as they existed were going to have any soft power to stop West Germany, and Berlin would be insistent on this issue.
Overall, reunification cannot be stopped in the time period in question.
 

iVC

Donor
Hard power was out of question by the time being considered, and none of the EU nations as they existed were going to have any soft power to stop West Germany, and Berlin would be insistent on this issue.

What about reunification taking a longer time due to British-French obstruction or Soviet staunch 'demilitarize and pay' position? So GDR population could meet Eastern Europe transition to capitalism and receive a certain 'Ostalgie' hit?

Therefore reunification could not be prevented completely, but just take other shapes?
 

longsword14

Banned
Bessarabia (Moldova) is still not the part of Romania, despite the momentum for unification was enormous in the 90s.
This is not the case here. France is not interested, neither is Britain. The sole power who wants it is going to disintegrate.
East German opposition to unification is no way near compared to that of Moldova.
 
Open borders, free movement are allowed, but if the two halves decide to join up, it is not allowed ?
Strange world.

It does seem strange, but reunification required the assent of each of the Four Powers per treaty. It is not hard to imagine Putin's Russia, as the successor to the Soviet Union, preferring Germany to remain politically divided today, even if East Germany was a part of the Schengen Area and a member of NATO. To get that, you need only keep East Germany a separate state for other reasons through around 2001. I don't find that to be all that far-fetched or inconceivable. Both the French and British had misgivings at the outset over reunification.
 

longsword14

Banned
I don't find that to be all that far-fetched or inconceivable. Both the French and British had misgivings at the outset over reunification.
Misgivings do not cut it. Neither France or Germany could do anything for long.
The Americans had given the green light, which is far more important.
 

iVC

Donor
Both the French and British had misgivings at the outset over reunification.

So, basically we need strong and staunch Thatcher, followed by ITTL Labour government which would be ready to seriously sever its ties with both USA and Euro common market in case of German unification. Chirac instead of Mitterand and maybe more patriotic and pragmatic Yeltsin/Gorby would be of assistance.

@longsword14 position about USA as indisputable decision-maker seems to be overrated a bit.

I've honestly tried to construct a possible situation for the 'freezing' of GDR condition.
 

longsword14

Banned
indisputable decision-maker seems to be overrated a bit.
They had the hard power, they were not interested. Anglo-French soft power is not going to be enough, considering the issue it would create.
Simply put, removing both soft and hard means is what makes it a done deal.
 
The Problem is that basically: What are France and the UK going to do if Germany ignores them and goes and does it anyways? Declare an embargo? Sanctions? Declare a War? Flat out nuke them?

They had the hard power, they were not interested. Anglo-French soft power is not going to be enough, considering the issue it would create.
Simply put, removing both soft and hard means is what makes it a done deal.

Longsword is correct. The US is not interested in preventing the reunionification of Germany. The USSR has much bigger problems on it's plate at the time. And France and the UK lack the means to enforce their desires, short of something insane like starting a fight with Germany and presumably then the rest of NATO and the USA.
 
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