With a PoD as far back as July 1, 1940 is there any way Japan can try its strike south operation in the early 1940s but utterly fail to take one or more of its major Southeast Asian territorial/resource objectives?
For instance they fail to seize one or more of:
A- Luzon
B- Mindanao
C- Borneo
D- Celebes
E- Java
F- Sumatra
G- Singapore
H-Malaya
I- Guam
J- Bismarck archipelago
K-northernNew Guinea
L- Solomon Islands
M- Gilbert islands
Or, is there simply a tipping point, where if the Japanese have a plausible chance of failing to succeed in winning any of these territories in the first nine months of the war, they will simply not choose to attack?