Is it feasible for Japan to at least attack the West Coast of the U.S.A?

All Rounder

Gone Fishin'
The most likely point of divergence is the Battle Of Midway, in which the Japanese win the battle instead of the Americans, leaving a section of the Pacific open for Japanese ships to stroll through to Hawaii for a full scale invasion and if that were to occur then an attack or possible invasion of the West Coast of the United States and more of a focus on the Aleutian islands. This P.O.D could only occur if Isoroku Yamamoto, Nobutake Kondo and Chuichi Nagumo made a more competent and carefully thought out plan and the Japanese message code JN-25b weren't partially broke among countless other things that brought their defeat in the battle and turned the tides in the American's favor.

Thoughts?
 
If "at least attack" means bombard the coast, they did that, with balloons that flew over using the jet stream, and with submarines, though damage was so slight it was easily concealed
 
If by "attack" you mean invade, the answer is no.

One factor would make it incredibly difficult for the Japanese to reach Hawaii, let alone the West Coast of the US: logistics. Given that the Japanese were embroiled in the Chinese quagmire and were occupying vast swathes of South East Asia at the time, all while fighting a nation which industrial capacity had already dwarfed that of Japan's even during the Depression, it would be pretty difficult for them to transport enough troops, equipment, and supplies in quantities required for an invasion so far in the Pacific, especially if it was Hawaii or further east, and actually keep them supplied the whole time. This excellent article, while focusing mainly on the difficulties inherent in any Japanese invasion of Hawaii, could be applied to the West Coast. To put it in perspective, successfully seizing Midway would actually have stretched the overstretched Japanese logistical system to breaking point.

On the other hand, if you mean bombarding and the like, then yes. The Japanese actually attacked with submarines and balloons, although the damage was pretty mild (it did create an invasion scare, tho).
 
In any meaningful way, I think not. A one way mission before the hostilities open, using an innocuous freighter, perhaps, and inserting naval special landing forces--very possible, but one way missions weren't really pat of the plan at that time.
 

ben0628

Banned
I'm sure the could bomb the West Coast of the Continental US a little bit but it'd probably be ineffective. An invasion of Hawaii or California/Washington/Oregon would be a disaster due to distance and supply problems.

An invasion of Alaska on the other hand is something to consider. Japan did occupy two Islands in far far western part of Alaska in otl which was pointless with the exception that it tied up thousands of American troops.

Now a Japanese occupation of Anchorage and the Western part of mainland Alaska would be interesting and probably be a publicity disaster for the US, and would result in tens of thousands of US troops being sent to liberate Alaska instead of fighting in the Pacific.
 
A Japanese submarine did shell a lighthouse on the west coast of Canada and it is rumoured that another submarine launched a floatplane to drop small bombs, but neither did significant damage and few Canadian citizens heard about the attacks.
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
I could see with a victory at Midway an invasion of Dutch Harbor and Anchorage being possible. Perhaps even Juneau would have been at risk, although it would have been too close to Vancouver for the Canadians to not quickly push the Japanese out.

Hawaii was impossible to invade even with a win at Midway, or at least impossible to succeed at invading. Logistics alone made it damn near impossible. The West Coast of the US is a non starter.
 

All Rounder

Gone Fishin'
The West Coast is off limits, and Hawaii is a waste of time. I would say that Alaska is the only way to go post Midway for the Japanese.
 
If the Japanese won Midway, it might have been practical to send their battleships, especially the Yamatos, to make bombardment raids on the West Coast like the Germans did with their battlecruisers on the British coast in WWI. I'm sure that given the range of the Yamatos' guns, they could have done a good amount of damage to coastal industry and possibly some test ranges, but it would be a bit hard for the battleships to make it that far and back without being intercepted.
 
The West Coast is off limits, and Hawaii is a waste of time. I would say that Alaska is the only way to go post Midway for the Japanese.

They technically did, even though they've only occupied a couple of islands, and for all intents and purposes, was a distraction meant to fool the Americans into believing it to be a full invasion while the attack on Midway was underway. Of course, that failed too.
 

All Rounder

Gone Fishin'
They technically did, even though they've only occupied a couple of islands, and for all intents and purposes, was a distraction meant to fool the Americans into believing it to be a full invasion while the attack on Midway was underway. Of course, that failed too.

Yep, it is quite overshadowed though in comparison to other campaigns. As I said in the OP, a more carefully crafted and thought out plan along with some more competence from the admirals may result in a different outcome at Midway.
 
I don't think even the most optimistic IJN planners saw a direct attack on the US mainland as being very likely.


What about trying it a few decades earlier as some sort of joint war with the UK onside before the Anglo-Japanese treaty expired (War Plan Red-Orange)? With the UK onside, I would think Japan could afford to be more aggressive in this hypothetical war in the 1920s.
 

All Rounder

Gone Fishin'
I don't think even the most optimistic IJN planners saw a direct attack on the US mainland as being very likely.


What about trying it a few decades earlier as some sort of joint war with the UK onside before the Anglo-Japanese treaty expired (War Plan Red-Orange)? With the UK onside, I would think Japan could afford to be more aggressive in this hypothetical war in the 1920s.

The U.S wouldn't be so stupid...Or would they? :)
 
Not even Alaska is feasible.

The US had garrison units there, plus the fact that it's far too north and away from the actual Pacific theater. Even if the Battle of Midway was a disaster, the Japanese can't just pull troops out of its pocket and throw them at Alaska.

Besides, it would be COMPLETELY pointless.
 
No, the Japanese military basically ran on being belt tighteners of the highest order, trying to attack the West Coast would be a waste of resources not the point of a Japanese attack. The main goal to at least cripple the U.S fleet and buy some time to win in China, take the resource-rich areas, and at least set up defenses for those areas.
 
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