My personal belief is that European dominance is very likely, but this may be inspired by misunderstanding of especially Indian Ocean weather.
As far as I can tell, Europe has a rather decent progression of storminess. The Mediterranean is quite calm, the Baltic/North Sea a bunch rougher (but, at least the North Sea, fairly predictably), and the Atlantic eventually gets real rough.
As such, each subsequent step in sturdiness of ships was worthwhile, as it meant a few more miles of sea you could travel safely, or a month more of (relatively) safe travel, while Asia has more typhoons of the all-or-nothing variety (where small progressions might mean you sink half an hour later but still sink).
If this is true, the seeds of European dominance (represented by the Portuguese, mostly), which were firmly naval, are quite logically more likely in Europe. Sure, desire and need drove the Europeans a lot too, but in the end it was the European small-but-sturdy ships that took over Indian Ocean trade from the Arabs and (expat) Chinese, and accidentally also added America to the European sphere. IMO 1500-something is the last time to prevent Europe becoming dominant (not the absolute hegemony of the 1900s yet, mind, just 'Europe is the most powerful continent' dominance), as that is when the Indian trade was really cornered.