Is an independent Brazil inevitable?

yeah, a Britain/Canada analogy had occurred to mewhat i'd envisioned when i typed "Principality of Brazil" was that, perhaps by tradition, the heir-apparent to the Portuguese throne stays in Brazil while the monarch lives in Portugal: when the monarch passes away, the Brazilian prince would then move to Portugal

The demographic pressure dictates however that should there be a junior partner in this union eventually it will be Portugal.
Portugal was more populated than Brazil in the early 19th century but it looks like the empire must still be ran from Rio to avoid a Brazilian rebellion. Both João and Pedro had that hindsight.
 
yeah, a Britain/Canada analogy had occurred to mewhat i'd envisioned when i typed "Principality of Brazil" was that, perhaps by tradition, the heir-apparent to the Portuguese throne stays in Brazil while the monarch lives in Portugal: when the monarch passes away, the Brazilian prince would then move to Portugal

another comparison that came to mind a long time ago was perhaps one to the Roman Empire, with the two being distinct from one another but part of the same country and having regional capitals: Rio de Janeiro for Brazil and Lisbon for Portugal

I don't think that kind of agreement between the King and the heir would survive the idiosyncracies of the next generations of the Royal family, it's just the Atlantic Ocean between Lisbon and Rio. Communication is surely hard, someone sometime wouldn't like to go to Rio or to Lisbon.
Although, if we have a real conflict of interest between João VI and the Prince Regent, the Portuguese King could try to hold the Northern Brazil (Grão-Pará e Maranhão) that was much more politically connected to Lisbon than to Rio.
 
Sorry, I meant that while the King is in Brazil he would have zero support in Portugal.

Oh... yes, quite so. Hence a rebellion in Portugal is inevitable and it needs to be crushed. It's not as if there was a universal hatred of the king by 1820 (when the liberal revolution finally kicked in IOTL). Perhaps some longing and resentment but overall respect for the institution of the monarchy... It's manageable.

As a flawed example, in 1820 the revolutionaries considered acceptable that only the crown prince would come to Portugal. Of course Pedro wanted nothing of that but I could see him say "Sure! I'll go to Portugal. I'll go to Portugal and I'll sort this whole mess". He'd stage his little internal coup in Lisbon and write his own constitution. It would be in character, to say the least...
 
for my ASB ATL, i had originally planned that Brazil stays with Portugal as a part of the United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil, and Algarve. lately, however, ive been wondering if Brazilian independence would be inevitable. what does everyone think? the POD can be no earlier than the flight of the Portuguese royals to Brazil during the Napoleonic Wars, which imo was part of what brought on the drive for Brazilian independence

At least partly, yes, I think so. However, though, I don't think a situation similar to what developed in Canada IOTL is at all implausible, either.
 
I don't think that kind of agreement between the King and the heir would survive the idiosyncracies of the next generations of the Royal family, it's just the Atlantic Ocean between Lisbon and Rio. Communication is surely hard, someone sometime wouldn't like to go to Rio or to Lisbon.
Although, if we have a real conflict of interest between João VI and the Prince Regent, the Portuguese King could try to hold the Northern Brazil (Grão-Pará e Maranhão) that was much more politically connected to Lisbon than to Rio.
Portugal-aligned North Brazil and independent South Brazil...me likey :D

maybe Brazilian independence in general would be delayed a little bit by this, but im becoming more and more convinced that Brazil would become independent anyway sometime in the early/mid-19th century, maybe in the latter half or at the turn of the century at the latest
 
The demographic pressure dictates however that should there be a junior partner in this union eventually it will be Portugal.
Portugal was more populated than Brazil in the early 19th century but it looks like the empire must still be ran from Rio to avoid a Brazilian rebellion. Both João and Pedro had that hindsight.

Indeed. The question would be better as ,,is an independent potugal inevitable?,,
 
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