for my ASB ATL, i had originally planned that Brazil stays with Portugal as a part of the United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil, and Algarve. lately, however, ive been wondering if Brazilian independence would be inevitable. what does everyone think? the POD can be no earlier than the flight of the Portuguese royals to Brazil during the Napoleonic Wars, which imo was part of what brought on the drive for Brazilian independence
Is an independent Brazil inevitable?
- Thread starter oshron
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Once the ports were opened it was only a matter of time. You can still keep the Portuguese King as the Emperor, though, should he abandon Portugal to the liberals.
It's avoidable but never in the form of Brazil under Portugal. The United Kingdom of PB&A will continue for at least as long as the royal family is Brazil-based.
The strongly anti-Brazilian Liberal Portuguese Members of Parliament in the early 1820s sped the process. Suppress these Liberals earlier and have Pedro IV adopt reforms along the lines of early Brazilian proposals for a double monarchy. Good luck for him with the rebellions that will follow...
The strongly anti-Brazilian Liberal Portuguese Members of Parliament in the early 1820s sped the process. Suppress these Liberals earlier and have Pedro IV adopt reforms along the lines of early Brazilian proposals for a double monarchy. Good luck for him with the rebellions that will follow...
one thing that i was considering for the ATL is that Napoleon wins and has de facto control over much of Europe for a time, perhaps forcing the Portuguese royals to stay in exile for a while longer, at least until Napoleon's death. do you suppose this would give incentive for them to not only stay in Portugal for a while longer but also to continue their family while still in exile, thus producing a Portuguese king who is more at home in Brazil than in Iberia?
No, you can't satisfy the elites of both Portugal and Brazil. The Portuguese want recolonization and a monopoly on Brazil's international trade, while the Brazilians will become independent if the ports are closed once again.
Think about it in this way: Brazil sells X product for 1$ to the Portuguese, who re-sells it to Britain for 3$. The same process also happens vice-versa, i.e. the Portuguese buy British products for 1$ and send them to Brazil for 3$. However, with open ports, the Brazilians directly sell their products to the British for 2$ and buy their products for 2$ too, so it's a win-win situation, but which leaves out Portugal and consequentially leads it to bankruptcy.
Think about it in this way: Brazil sells X product for 1$ to the Portuguese, who re-sells it to Britain for 3$. The same process also happens vice-versa, i.e. the Portuguese buy British products for 1$ and send them to Brazil for 3$. However, with open ports, the Brazilians directly sell their products to the British for 2$ and buy their products for 2$ too, so it's a win-win situation, but which leaves out Portugal and consequentially leads it to bankruptcy.
Well, facing pragmatically the late 18th and early 19th century in the lusophone world, I have just two considerations to make: Brazil is way too big and Portugal is way too poor. Portugal wasn't able to absorb Brazilian economy for a while when the royal family fled to Rio, it's merely a pragmatic issue: Brazil wouldn't be happy selling only to a country that couldn't take all its potential and Portugal wouldn't be happy giving more freedom to trade to Brazil as it was seen as a potential way out of the economic black hole they (the earthquake?) dug theirselves in. I see OTL's political maneuver as the best that both countries could do.
I can only see an everlasting Portuguese-Brazilian Union (Commonwealth-like?) if we go way back in time... Maybe the 17th century?
I can only see an everlasting Portuguese-Brazilian Union (Commonwealth-like?) if we go way back in time... Maybe the 17th century?
(even though i said that the POD can't predate the Napoleonic Wars Any chance for the Portuguese royals to stay in Brazil, and be able to crush the inevitable rebellion it would cause home in Portugal?
Iffy but yes, I think so. The trick being crushing a first Portuguese rebellion under royal authority, keeping the status quo for time enough to humble the Portuguese into accepting Brazil as at least a proportional partner.
I'm not sure how it'd play out, perhaps eventually princes would have to "commute" across the Atlantic to preside over the regency of Portugal or Brazil.
so a Principality of Brazil? certainly sounds like it could be interesting
it's not (only) because I'm Brazilian, but I think it would probably work the other way round.
Nope, the King has no real support coming from the elites, Liberal or Absolutist.
Not a de jure principality. Portugal and Brazil would each have their own governments in need of a regent (or directly the king). Think of 19th century Portugal-Brazil as Austria-Hungary with the Atlantic in the middle. Eventually the British Commonwealth will be a better analogue.
So do I. More often than not the king will be in Brazil. I can't see it "work" otherwise. João VI and Pedro IV liked it better to rule the show from Rio anyway.
yeah, a Britain/Canada analogy had occurred to me
what i'd envisioned when i typed "Principality of Brazil" was that, perhaps by tradition, the heir-apparent to the Portuguese throne stays in Brazil while the monarch lives in Portugal: when the monarch passes away, the Brazilian prince would then move to Portugal
another comparison that came to mind a long time ago was perhaps one to the Roman Empire, with the two being distinct from one another but part of the same country and having regional capitals: Rio de Janeiro for Brazil and Lisbon for Portugal
Oh, you mean among Brazilians... I can't see him being overthrown while staying in Brazil though.
