Is a Victorious Germany in WW1 a serious threat to the UK?

Well, the German is not going to get the Russian BBs unless they could occupy as much Russian lands as OTL. Occupying Poland alone is not enough, and the war is too short to occupy as much territories as IOTL.

Also, depending on the situation, the French could end up not employing Joffre's idiotic offensive strategy (too risky without British backing) and instead choose Victor Michel's one and hence manage to stonewall German troops in Belgian borders. And if the German could not set a boot on French lands, their industrial base would be safe. Remember that until 1916, defenders (if they actually employ defensive strategy) always had the advantage thanks to machine guns, and the Germans could end up like the French during Nivelle Offensive IOTL.

The French are likely to get massacred thanks to them launching their offensive before Britain entered the war. Assuming the Germans still invade Belgium, the lack of a BEF at the very least leaves German forces in control of more of France than OTL, and the Schlieffen Plan might actually succeed thanks to less troops able to block German advances.
 
It takes a lot to form a serious threat to a globe-spanning economic and political entity such as the pre-war British Empire. The German Fleet was deemed to be such a threat, as it was a direct challenge to the century-old cornerstone of the British geopolitical strategy.

However, this was a threat Britain could and did contain in OTL. Germany is still surrounded by revanchist powers, and can also be collaborated with in some colonial questions. It is not an ideal diplomatical situation, but not intolerable either.

All it takes is naval domination of the Channel and North Sea - which a victorious Germany has the industrial capacity to achieve. And given Imperial Germany's track record in diplomacy, I wouldn't be too optimistic if I were Britain.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
The French are likely to get massacred thanks to them launching their offensive before Britain entered the war.
Without British support, Joffre's plan would be less likely to be accepted

Well, if they choose Victor Michel's plan, this would not happen, and it is the Germans that would be massacred when trying to attack French defensive line.
 
All it takes is naval domination of the Channel and North Sea - which a victorious Germany has the industrial capacity to achieve. And given Imperial Germany's track record in diplomacy, I wouldn't be too optimistic if I were Britain.

For now, yes. The problem with all of this though is, in the event that Great Britain does reach the point of Germany dominating the Continent the internal arguments about the virtues of Free Trade vs. Protectionism (A strategy, in the later case, the US and Germany were both using alongside their access to Imperial and other markets to fuel their own rapid industrial expansion) are likely to rather quickly settle in favor of the Conservatives/Later position. Since Germany is going to need to go through a period of post-war restructuring, higher tax rates to fund the naval build-up and subdueing of its wartime games, creating a stable defensive position in the East, ect. (All of which is going to, at least in the short-medium term, somewhat retard its industrial competitiveness.), plus the added hamstringing of increasing efforts at trade wars and rising tariff/political walls erected by the British Empire to try to favor British commerce over German (Which having the co-operative of Revachist/German-suspcious nations is likely to help with, in addition to G.B's greater ability to leverage its pre-existing international political and commercial power, is another advantage to Westminster), will pre-war trends on German industrial growth continue?
 
Without British support, Joffre's plan would be less likely to be accepted

Well, if they choose Victor Michel's plan, this would not happen, and it is the Germans that would be massacred when trying to attack French defensive line.

Except, as I pointed out, the French had already attacked into Germany before Britain declared war, and British support for the French at that point wasn't guaranteed. Even OTL, this nearly caused a disaster, without the BEF it would be closer or even descend into a disaster. This leaves France in a worse position than OTL no matter how you cut it.

Edit: Wait, I just double-checked, I had that wrong. In any case, the French are still going to be worse off due to the lack of a BEF to slow down the Germans. If the Germans can catch the French in a disorganized position, say from rushing to stop the German drive, then I'd bet it's going to be a sad day for the French.
 

trajen777

Banned
Germany will have a difficult time getting war reps of value for a long time. Yes it will keep France down but for a 3year war France, Russia, and really germany will be close to brankrupt. A german win still leaves millions dead, war support would be zip, and the reconstruction of middle europa, etc would cost billions. A navy is the last thing to spend on
 

Thomas1195

Banned
The problem with all of this though is, in the event that Great Britain does reach the point of Germany dominating the Continent the internal arguments about the virtues of Free Trade vs. Protectionism (A strategy, in the later case, the US and Germany were both using alongside their access to Imperial and other markets to fuel their own rapid industrial expansion) are likely to rather quickly settle in favor of the Conservatives/Later position
No. Even IOTL, the free trade argument still prevailed as late as 1923, long after all British industrial weaknesses had been exposed. And even so, it would not be necessarily better since the Liberals actually had far better non-Tariff policies. You know, they essentially proposed a New Deal of their own while the Tories always preached "Safety First" (a glorified nickname for austerity).

Except, as I pointed out, the French had already attacked into Germany before Britain declared war, and British support for the French at that point wasn't guaranteed. Even OTL, this nearly caused a disaster, without the BEF it would be closer or even descend into a disaster. This leaves France in a worse position than OTL no matter how you cut it.
No, unlike Joffree plan, a Victor Michel plan would turn the Western Front into a static state from early. Victor had no intention to launch offensive into A-L, as he actually predicted German plan to attack through Belgium. His plan was large defensive, and the war thus would go very nasty.
 
All it takes is naval domination of the Channel and North Sea - which a victorious Germany has the industrial capacity to achieve. And given Imperial Germany's track record in diplomacy, I wouldn't be too optimistic if I were Britain.

As someone else recently posted, the Wilhelmine Germany had a horrid lack of coherent foreign policy. But as for holding true to the deals they had made, the Germans were actually reliable.

This might have been merely a byproduct of their disadvantageous diplomatical position and the misguided adventurism of Wilhelm II, but during the time of peace Germany was a part of the diplomatical world of Europe, not a North Korea on steroids.
 
No. Even IOTL, the free trade argument still prevailed as late as 1923, long after all British industrial weaknesses had been exposed. And even so, it would not be necessarily better since the Liberals actually had far better non-Tariff policies. You know, they essentially proposed a New Deal of their own while the Tories always preached "Safety First" (a glorified nickname for austerity).


No, unlike Joffree plan, a Victor Michel plan would turn the Western Front into a static state from early. Victor had no intention to launch offensive into A-L, as he actually predicted German plan to attack through Belgium. His plan was large defensive, and the war thus would go very nasty.

Correct, but how much of this was a result of a backlash/ response to government controls during The War, the detachment of the industrial/economic threat from the political threats to the U.K's position (The U.S retreated back into isolationism pretty quickly, and isen't exactly the most hostile to the U.K. Meanwhile, France is deeply crippled and indebted to Britian, while Germany just got shot through the heart and the rising Russia was collapsing into a flaming wreck, somewhat limitings it formerly meteoric industrial development)? This timeline has much different circumstances in these reguards, especially if Germany starts making noises towards the ocean. Add that to the fact that the main industrial rival left, the US, was taking steps away from its protectionist stance into the Roaring 20's deregulation, and their actions aren't surprising.
 
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