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Central Powers victory timelines often feature Germany controlling huge areas in the east, from the Baltics to all of Ukraine. But is it possible for WWI to end like this?

In order for this to happen, the USA must remain neutral. Otherwise, if the Central Powers manage to get as far east as they did in OTL, any peace treaty they establish won't last any longer than 1-2 years.

Also, the war must last long enough for the Russian war effort to collapse. In OTL it took over 3 years. Without a Russian collapse the Central Powers aren't likely to get far beyond the 1915-1917 frontlines.

If the Russian war effort is beginning to collapse and Russia gives up, German gains are probably close to the initial OTL demands at Brest-Litovsk, which amounted to most of what later became Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

For Russia not to give up at this point, 3+ years into the war the western Entente must be performing so well that they appear to be going to win ... but still lose. This seems unlikely to me.

Thoughts?
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