Is a global conflict preventable with a POD no earlier than 1815?

The Napoleonic wars happen, then there's the Vienna conference, and the European Concert, and nationalism is on the rise, European powers grow more imperialistic etc. Do all those things - which were mostly influenced by the French Revolution, the Enlightment and the Napoleonic Wars, and the multi-polar balance-of-power system that existed in the international stage that we call the "Concert of Europe" - must lead to a global war (nevermind who the combatants are), or at least a pan-European war? I mean, there's no way for nationalism not to rise after the Napoleonic wars, and things directly relating to nationalism have lead to the breakout of the first world war, and the congress system did not allow one nation to impose its will upon the rest of Europe, so you have no Pax [Insert Nation Here]na, and thus clashes of interests are likely to be solved through war as no greater power is going to intervene to keep the peace because there are no greater powers.
 
I think nationalism can easily be kept down as a force with a PoD of 1815. It will still exist, and be a hassle, but I think global war isn't inevitable. A European war will happen at some point, it's guaranteed, but I doubt something on the level the Franco-Prussian War, or the Crimean War could escalate into a world war.
 
It's an interesting question, and I'll be interested to see the answers of those with more background in the period.

My initial assessment would be that some sort of global conflict is likely but not inevitable. One scenario would be that the balance of power is maintained until the development of nuclear weapons to the point of mutually-assured destruction. (In which case, you might see many wars on the scale of the Franco-Prussian War or similar, but without ever breaking into a pan-European or global conflict.) For this to happen, though, I think you'd need to prevent the development of an alliance system along the lines OTL saw--and that may be a problem, since forming alliances is a geopolitical strategy as old as organized states...
 
Yes, it's easily preventable with PODs as late as 1866 or 1870. Butterfly away German unification and European power politics remains traditional and not destabilized. Instant removal of a general European war in any recognizable model.
 
It's an interesting question, and I'll be interested to see the answers of those with more background in the period.

My initial assessment would be that some sort of global conflict is likely but not inevitable. One scenario would be that the balance of power is maintained until the development of nuclear weapons to the point of mutually-assured destruction. (In which case, you might see many wars on the scale of the Franco-Prussian War or similar, but without ever breaking into a pan-European or global conflict.) For this to happen, though, I think you'd need to prevent the development of an alliance system along the lines OTL saw--and that may be a problem, since forming alliances is a geopolitical strategy as old as organized states...

Actually the easiest way to do it is to say, have Koniggratz go the other way. As that was the largest battle since Leipzig to that point it's actually possible at a couple of points in the battles where a For Want of a Nail change can actually derail Otto von Bismarck before he fairly gets started. United Germany was a profoundly destabilizing and unbalancing force. The Kingdom of Prussia, however, was not anything equivalent.
 
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