Irvin McDowell's career if he won Bull Run?

ben0628

Banned
If General McDowell wins at Bull Run, what happens to him afterwards? Is he competent enough to defeat the Confederacy in the East and if so, is it possible that he runs for president in the future?
 
I don't think the Union forces were ready yet to defeat the Confederacy in the East. for untrained, unorganized armies, the defense has an advantage.
 
I doubt that a victorious Union army after Bull Run can march on Richmond anymore than the victorious Confederates were able to march on Washington in OTL. So the war will go on, and nothing in McDowell's OTL career indicates that he is capable of successfully directing the war to a victorious conclusion in the east. That said, a victory at Bull Run will keep him in high command longer. On the morale side: it will boost up Union morale, at least until frustration at the lack of a sucessful pursuit to Richmond sets in. The CSA is likely to have a major morale problem, assuming the west goes as badly as OTL; they'll have no victories to hang their hat on.

A Union victory at Bull Run may also lead to a shakeup in the Confederate command structure. As a West Pointer Jeff Davis might be sufficiently aware of the deficiencies of green troops to cut both Beauregard and Johnston a mulligan. On the other hand, he may dump whichever one he feels is more responsible for the defeat, or both of them. If the latter, his options to replace them are basically limited to A.S. Johnston or Robert E. Lee.
 
I doubt that a victorious Union army after Bull Run can march on Richmond anymore than the victorious Confederates were able to march on Washington in OTL. So the war will go on, and nothing in McDowell's OTL career indicates that he is capable of successfully directing the war to a victorious conclusion in the east. That said, a victory at Bull Run will keep him in high command longer. On the morale side: it will boost up Union morale, at least until frustration at the lack of a sucessful pursuit to Richmond sets in. The CSA is likely to have a major morale problem, assuming the west goes as badly as OTL; they'll have no victories to hang their hat on.

A Union victory at Bull Run may also lead to a shakeup in the Confederate command structure. As a West Pointer Jeff Davis might be sufficiently aware of the deficiencies of green troops to cut both Beauregard and Johnston a mulligan. On the other hand, he may dump whichever one he feels is more responsible for the defeat, or both of them. If the latter, his options to replace them are basically limited to A.S. Johnston or Robert E. Lee.

Part of it depends on how the battle ends. I would expect a partial Confederate rout (the Confederate right was never engaged, and would remain in good order). A few thousand prisoners taken? That would be big: think beaten rebels paraded through the streets of Washington.

McDowell gets saluted as the Hero of the Union. He'll be untouchable for a long time.

Another question is how the war continues. ISTM there is a significant possibility that the Confederacy unravels right then. There hasn't been much emotional and operational commitment to the CSA yet - in the sense of work and sacrifice, and actual attack on the US. Its physical organization has barely started. Morale-wise: the Fire-Eaters had loudly insisted that the cowardly Yankees would never fight - or if they did, "gallant Southern gentlemen" would thrash them easily. OTL Bull Run appeared to confirm that braggadocio, and gave the CSA enterprise a big boost. ATL, that bragging has been exploded. The Fire-Eaters are discredited. A peace party might form, calling on the states to rescind secession before everything goes pear-shaped. (I was going to write "goes south", but that would not work here.)

IMO: Kentucky declares for the Union immediately. The Five Civilized Tribes spurn Confederate alliance. A lot more Virginians adhere to the Unionist "Restored Government of Virginia".

Possibly Unionists regain control of a CSA state - most likely Tennessee. There wouldn't be an unconditional return to U.S. allegiance, but some kind of deal including amnesty for rebels and a pledge of security for slavery in the states from Lincoln (which he would be willing to give) could happen. Once one state reverts, the rest will follow

So there are no more battles and McDowell is The Hero of the Union. Maybe he ends up as President.

But perhaps I am too optimistic.

Suppose the beaten Confederates regroup, though demoralized. McDowell is ordered to march on Richmond, and flatly refuses, pointing out to Lincoln and Scott all the difficulties the Army of Virginia had just advancing a few miles from Washington, and how messy the battle was. Scott will back him up.

(The Union force at First Bull Run was the Army in the Department of Virginia; the Confederate force was the Army of the Potomac. Really.)

In September the Union advance resumes. By what route? The railroad runs SW. SE to Fredericksburg, and then along the railroad to Richmond? McDowell made this march with the I Corps in 1862, so it's not unthinkable. Can the demoralized CS army put up effective resistance?
 
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