With any PoD, make Britain the backwater of Europe, a minor power that nobody bothers to even exploit. i.e, no major British Empire at any point.
With any PoD, make Britain the backwater of Europe, a minor power that nobody bothers to even exploit. i.e, no major British Empire at any point.
But as soon as coal starts powering a navy, it's hard to keep Britain out of the running.
At several points before the 18th century the British navy was allowed to fall into decay and rot. Just have one of these periods become the norm, and the British won't come to greatness.
They'll be somewhat important, and once they industrialize
the coal will be of great importance,
but if they're dominated by other powers,
they'll be a somewhat important resource for raw materials,
and some manufactured goods,
but they'll never build an empire.
The POD would have to be something along the lines of extreme corruption in the navy that surpassed even OTL and saw domination, not colonization, but humiliating and disastrous defeat by a larger power, which continued to keep a large navy after the humiliation. Not easy.The 19th century saw long periods of stagnation, complacency, appearance obsession, faulty doctrine, and the like, as did the 17th: when a serious challenge appeared, it was fixed. I don't see how you can prevent it: Britain has a huge mercantile interest and a series of overseas colonies. It's not Russia, which could built a fine fleet and then forget about it.
Before the late 1500's the English navy was laughable, it didn't even have charts of its home waters. If the early navy had been destroyed before it could become useful, it might keep the British thinking they should simply protect their own shores.For Britain to just stop trying to be a maritime power would require some sort of physical disaster.
Likely, but it depends on the POD.A) Would we industrialise so early and completely, in the absence of such naval and imperial power? The answer is probably yes in any recognisable Britain, although quite possibly other powers would catch up quicker, especially France, if it avoids its own physical disasters.
Agreed. But if it happens after France, Spain and maybe Prussia industrialize, it could go very differently.b) But if we do industrialise as IOTL - and takeoff is reckoned around the 1780s, the point-of-no-return perhaps in the 1760s - then there is no question of 'somewhat important'. We're only talking about the greatest change in human life since the invention of settlements and agriculture here.
Agreed. This would mean the British become an economic power, not necessarily a military or expansionary power.Coal had long been growing and Britain certainly produced more than everybody else put together by a long way around 1800, but it was not the first element of industrialisation or necessary for it: it put steam-engines in the ideas-space, but that's bound to happen (coal is a domestic good, nearly all the consumption was at home) and anyway some of the early mills didn't even rely on steam at all.
Who said colony. I was thinking dominated by threats of violence and much larger economies.How did we get from a less enthusiastic naval-imperial policy to being somebody's colony? The British crown of the early 1600s, which had no army, a small fleet that it rented to other people, a tiny colonial empire, and a small trade, was still a perfectly independent polity.
If parts of Europe industrialized sooner than Britain they may need some more coal. If Britain is small, weak and relatively poor, they might sell some of their coal and resources to get some much needed funds, which would allow them to industrialize later.But who would buy the coal if not us? Very few people in Europe used coal for anything prior to railways and the associated explosion in the iron industry (some in Belgium where it was easy to get, I believe): they had abundant charcoal. Britain, except for a few areas, is short on forest (and even then some 18th C foundries were located in the Highlands precisely to take advantage of it) and so coal has been mined from the earliest times.
Limited industrialization, and later than OTL. After France, and several other countries industrialize.Are we talking about the industrial revolution or not here?
True, which is why a POD in the 1500's is probably necessary. Unless we want England invaded.But mercantile imperialism came before industrial explosion and very likely contributed to it, by furnishing Britain with vast markets in which it could sell without limitation.
The pope grants Henry VIII the anullment of his marriage, England thus stays catholic. Edward VI dies young just as he did in OTL and is succeeded by Mary Tudor who still marries Philip II. In TTL, she gives birth to a son, who is both King of Spain and England, England thus remains a backwater of the spanish Empire in the way the spanish (southern catholic) Netherlands did, wealthy but globally insignificant.
The POD would have to be something along the lines of extreme corruption in the navy that surpassed even OTL and saw domination, not colonization, but humiliating and disastrous defeat by a larger power, which continued to keep a large navy after the humiliation. Not easy.
Before the late 1500's the English navy was laughable, it didn't even have charts of its home waters.
If the early navy had been destroyed before it could become useful, it might keep the British thinking they should simply protect their own shores.
Agreed. But if it happens after France, Spain and maybe Prussia industrialize, it could go very differently.
Agreed. This would mean the British become an economic power, not necessarily a military or expansionary power.
If the government doesn't act on industrializing quickly enough for some reason,
it might take a while to be used, allowing other nations to surpass it.
Or the government might try to control it too much, and smother a lot of the industry via centralization.
Who said colony. I was thinking dominated by threats of violence and much larger economies.
If parts of Europe industrialized sooner than Britain they may need some more coal.
If Britain is small, weak and relatively poor, they might sell some of their coal and resources to get some much needed funds, which would allow them to industrialize later.
Limited industrialization, and later than OTL. After France, and several other countries industrialize.
How about a Jacobite Restoration? Britain waivers between autocracy and instability, and then have the French Revolution get a successful constitutional monarchy. Ireland and Scotland are then split off as French puppets.
The butterflies, they are burning!!!!
Even if England were to become part of the Spanish Habsburg's domains, there's no reason why they couldn't have an empire of their own. Portugal kept control of its empire during the Philippine period, after all, and it was Aragon* that had the Italian domains under its aegis.
But even in this scenario, England would still be an important source of money, manpower and resources for the Spanish campaigns on the continent. If anything, it would allow the Spaniards to give France the finger if it meant excluding it from foreign expansion...
*There was no officiall country called the "Kingdom of Spain" IOTL until after the War of the Spanish Succession.
Have England partiotioned in 1066 - Welsh principalities, Wessex, Northumbria and Dane/Norse-held portions in the east, maybe the dukes of Normandy ruling Kent and Essex.
I agree with pretty much everything you said.Anent Balkanisation: none of the things vital to what we shall call Anglo-British world power (navy, commercial imperialism, industrial explosion) depended on in direct way on a united Britain. Indirectly a French-aligned Scotland might certainly be a means to keep England poorer, more embattled, and less secure; but a Scotland that goes the Irish way doesn't particularly hurt England's immediate prospects.
Cut for space
After reading your post, I'm going to say it 'Definitely needs a POD in the early or mid 1500's. Barring invasion and conquest of course.Domoviye said:True, which is why a POD in the 1500's is probably necessary. Unless we want England invaded.
It's too strategically placed to believe that no one will ever exploit it.