Iriish Republic invades N Ireland 1969.

cumbria

Banned
With the benefit of hindsight, observers of the Irish political scene can sit back and snigger at the notion - which emerged over the weekend in advance of a TV documentary to be broadcast in Ireland tonight - that 40 years ago the Republic's army could have invaded and liberated Northern Ireland.
The idea that a nation with one of the smallest armies in Europe could attack, seize and hold territory defended by a Nato power resembles the 1960s British comedy classic The Mouse that Roared in which a bankrupt Ruritania declares war on America.
Back in the tense, frenetic days of August 1969, however, after Irish taoiseach Jack Lynch said his government would no longer stand by and watch innocent people being hurt in the north, there were some in Northern Ireland, unionist and nationalist - including the then Prime Minister James Chichester-Clark - who believed the Irish Army was preparing to cross the border to 'liberate' Catholic dominated towns such as Newry and Derry's west bank.
Indeed there were harridan voices inside the Irish Cabinet who advocated military intervention even in the face of overwhelming odds as a means of completing the 'unfinished business' of
1916 and ending partition on the island.
Plans drawn up by Irish army strategists under the codename Exercise Armageddon envisaged a series of guerilla attacks on vital installations in Belfast, including the BBC's television studios, the docks and airport.
The programme - titled What If Lynch Had Invaded - explores what would have happened to the Irish army had it ventured north in August/September 1969: in all likelihood, they would have been massacred. It also examines what would have happened to Ireland diplomatically and politically if Lynch had listened to hard-line nationalists in his Cabinet such as Kevin Boland and Neil Blaney.
The documentary's two presenters, one of whom is a former Irish Army officer, conclude that the Republic would have been painted as the aggressor, censured in the UN, isolated in Europe and Ireland's entry into the EEC put back for years. In short, the whole adventure would have set the Republic's development back for decades.


Read more: http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/52933...rescue-catholics-on-the-bogside#ixzz19byUpaSx
 
Irish stories seldom have happy endings, everyone knows that. I don't know if if the invaders would have been massacred per say. I doubt they could have won either, the best they could have done was make it too expensive for the British to stay. The result would be that the troubles would more violent and the divisions would be deeper, more bitter.
 
If NATO stays neutral then our favourite unionist may gain more power by being able to say that Labour failed Northern Ireland, the Americans didn't care for the British interest and that he was right about Rivers of Blood.
 

Macragge1

Banned
The only way this could threaten Britain is if Harold Wilson laughs so much whilst ordering a counter-strike that he falls over and hits his head.

The Irish Air Corps was a few trainers and rescue aircraft; the navy was a non-issue. The Irish army was perishingly small and still relied mostly on WW2-era equipment - hell, some Irish reserve units were still using Brens at the turn of the century. There'd be some unrest caused by it, perhaps a larger Battle of the Bogside, but this would be offset by the fact that the British gloves would now be well and truly off. Within days there'd be enough troops in Ulster to not only beat back the invasion, but counter-attack and take large chunks of the Republic - the British would, from day one, be enjoying material, numerical and total aerial and naval superiority.
 
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cumbria

Banned
According to the documentaries alternate history scenario the Irish plan to push into Derry and Newry.
Only the Derry plan is carried out.
120 Irish troops take Newry in one night.
Within a day they are strafed, attacked and then defeated by the British army.
However from my point of view I very much doubt the Irish soldiers would have stayed in the open South of Newry as the documentary suggests.
I suspect they would fight in Newry itself in an urban warfare manner.
This would preclude the British from using more of their air power.
I would think the best bet for the Irish would be to put several hundred men in Derry and Newry and try to inspire the locals to rise up and fight even more.
I suspect the British Army would still beat them however within a day or two but would suffer some loses.
 

Ak-84

Banned
A lot like the Georgian War of 2008. The British maul the Irish "Invasion Force" take some territory in the South; because the can and then withraw.
 
Although it is highly unlikley that it would happen, if it did it would have a profound effect upon the troubles. Going at it from the extremes, it would either give considerable support to the Nationalists (now aware that there is considerable political support across the border), or completely kill the movement as moderate international support in the west largly vanishes.

Russell
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The NATO defense pact would automatically come into force, not that the British would need any help.

Also, the U.N. Security Council would label Ireland an aggressor and impose sanctions. The Soviets would see no benefit in vetoing such a measure, and would probably be more than happy to play ball with the British in exchange for some British support (or at least neutrality) on issues the British didn't particularly care about.
 

Cook

Banned
Plans drawn up by Irish army strategists under the codename Exercise Armageddon...
The name of the exercise indicates that the army officers concerned had a clearer idea of the consequences for the Irish Army than did some members of the Irish Cabinet.
 
Whoever thought this plan was a good idea obviously forgot that at the end of the, the UK had V-Force, and the Irish didn't. This is the worlds most ridiculous idea.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Whoever thought this plan was a good idea obviously forgot that at the end of the, the UK had V-Force, and the Irish didn't. This is the worlds most ridiculous idea.

By that logic...wouldn't the Falklands have gone nuclear?

Obviously, the Falklands War was harder to bring to a British victory with conventional forces than a defense of Belfast.

There isn't any way the British would look at the Irish military moving across the border and think to themselves "You know what would solve this issue? Strategic Bombing." :rolleyes:
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Is insanity something that is encouraged in Erie's political or military leadership?

If it isn't there is no way this happens. If there is, the entire thing becomes a severe embarrassment to Erie when its military is effectively grabbed by the ear and paddled by a Major Power.

The UK in 1969 was considerably more militarily robust than in 1982 and Erie is a tad closer to London than the Falklands.


It seems likely that this is similar to the "War Plan Red" thing we've been kicking around. Military planners always have a pile of "things go to Hell" options laid out, even if they are mainly there to show the Politicians that there ideas are dog chow.
 
It seems likely that this is similar to the "War Plan Red" thing we've been kicking around.


THIS.

Military planners always have a pile of "things go to Hell" options laid out, even if they are mainly there to show the Politicians that there ideas are dog chow.

Precisely. Odds are it was a staff exercise which the sane members of the Irish cabinet asked for in order to scare the feces out of the insane fire-eating members of the Irish cabinet. Once the uniformed professionals studied the situation and predicted consequences, the insane fire-eaters shut up.

It was a Reality Sandwich(tm)

Decades later, a reporter who is either too stupid to know what a staff study is or, more likely, knows couch potatoes watching his TV "documentaries" are too stupid to know what a staff study is, dredged up the study, dialed up the hyperbole, slathered on a heavy layer of innuendo, and got the ratings he was looking for.
 
By that logic...wouldn't the Falklands have gone nuclear?

Why would we be using nuclear weapons if we employed the V-Force? They had a pretty good conventional capability and it's not like the IDF had anything that could touch them.

To be honest this plan will have been one of those staff exercises drawn up to show someone how stupid and impractical an idea is. A bit like the Unmentionable Sea Mammal.
 
Britain invokes Nato accords. SAC launches B-52 saturation bombing of Dublin. Then-waitaminute, this isn't the ASB Forum!?:eek::eek:
 

Ak-84

Banned
In fairness the UK might bomb some sites inside the Republic. Its not the size of the invasion force (come on a Company) but the political impact. The UK has to retaliate in some way.
 
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