Irian Jaya (West Papua) and Papua New Guinea as a Unified Independent Country?

[Aozhouhuaren]

Is this an achievable scenario, if so how? Would it have been plausible for there to have been a post-Indonesian Independence POD or would it need a POD way before Indonesian Independence? What would be the economic, geo-political and cultural impacts of such a union? What are the possible titles for this new nation, would it be Papua, or Irian Jaya or something completely different?

Your thoughts?

 

[M79]

Probably best done between 1960 and 1975, perhaps the war of independence for Irian Jaya turns into a guerilla war that Indonesia does not believe winnable or Australia wins pccupation of it after WWII with Dutch blessing then turns the whole thing independent later on.

 

[Ran Exilis]

Propably Papua or Papua New Guinea.

Certainly not Irian Jaya, since that is the name that the Indonesian occupiers gave to the island.

The POD for this could be well after the Indonesian independance,
since it was not until 1961 that the UN and the US forced the Netherlands to give up West New Guinea.

I'd say that the best chance for unifying New Guinea under a single Papua nation would be to somehow convince the Americans that (understatement warning) it is perhaps a better idea to allow the former Dutch colony to become an independant country, or on the long therm, unify it with the other two territories on the eastern half of the island into a single Papua state.

 

[octaviuz]

*bump*
I was going to post this one (inspired by the konfrontasi thread) but this way I avoid accusations of double posting.

What if the Dutch decided to talk to the Aussies while they still controlled NNG? They had to be aware that Indonesia had designs on the territory and that it would be far too weak to resist if the Indonesians were really motivated. PNG is already made up of two former colonies, what's one more?

 

[Ridwan Asher]

Maybe this event can be the base for this scenario's PoD :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch-Indonesian_Round_Table_Conference

Maybe if the Dutch didn't delay the settlement that had been agreed in the Round Table Conference would be done a year after the conference, the Dutch would may had the chance to win over this dispute. Or not ? And maybe that was why they were delaying it over and over again until more than a decade which made Indonesia pissed off and then attacked? Who knows ?

Although if they would very well have the chance if they did it(the settlement plan) as they promised, at least from there an Independent West Papua could be achieved as very well, if the Dutch wanted to. Though to unite the whole island under one banner would be very well required the next effort.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

*bump*
I was going to post this one (inspired by the konfrontasi thread) but this way I avoid accusations of double posting.

What if the Dutch decided to talk to the Aussies while they still controlled NNG? They had to be aware that Indonesia had designs on the territory and that it would be far too weak to resist if the Indonesians were really motivated. PNG is already made up of two former colonies, what's one more?

The thing is, at that time the Aussies were rather supportive on our behalf. They had no intention whatsoever to gain anything in Indonesia's expenses.

 

[Youdontwanttoknow]

What is needed is that Prime Ministers Menzies through to Whitlam show a little more backbone to Indonesia and negotiated with the Dutch to have the entire island under one banner. The independence of PNG was not until 1975 and many modern observers say that it was far too soon for the country as well, so perhaps this might result in a later independece for New Guinea as a whole and perhaps a more anti-Australian and pro-Indonesian sentiment occuring...

 

[Doug M.]

This seems very, very unlikely.

The Dutch had no interest in giving their colony to Australia, and Australia had even less interest in taking it. By the 1960s, Australia had become rather bored and annoyed with its Papuan Trust Territory; they were looking to get rid of it, not add more.

And Canberra was perfectly happy to see Indonesia move into the west and, you know, take the wogs in hand.


Doug M.

 

[Youdontwanttoknow]

I know this, so in order for the West Papuans to not be taken over by Indonesia there would of had to been a radical shift in 1960s thought patterns in both Canberra and Amstredam. Unlikely however I admit as the main reason why the west (esp. Australia) supported Suharto was that he was (at times rabidly) anti-communist, and in the era of the Vietnam War and the domino theory, thats all he really needed. So a change in thought by the Australians and Dutch would require a much larger change to the prevailing attitudes during the cold war itself.

This support for Suharto was even greater because of the West Papuans being left-leaning, the leading Fretlin movement in Timor-Leste (East Timor) being socialist and the continued attacks against Sukarno supporters (yes Sukarno was a leftist too!)

Failing a change in the way Australia and the Netherlands thought, another way I could see the unifcation of New Guinea occuring, is a more sucessful (by the magnitude of at least 100) insurgency against Indonesia/Dutch forces and eventual unification with the Eastern half of the island (PNG) after its independence was granted in 1975.

Lastly but even more implausible (given the western support he gained) would be to have the Suharto take over from Sukarno in the late 1967 but have the situation then devolve into a civil war of sorts and just have Indonesia in no postion to be able to take West Papua over.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

1) This support for Suharto was even greater because of the West Papuans being left-leaning, the leading Fretlin movement in Timor-Leste (East Timor) being socialist and the continued attacks against Sukarno supporters (yes Sukarno was a leftist too!)

2) Failing a change in the way Australia and the Netherlands thought, another way I could see the unifcation of New Guinea occuring, is a more sucessful (by the magnitude of at least 100) insurgency against Indonesia/Dutch forces and eventual unification with the Eastern half of the island (PNG) after its independence was granted in 1975.

3) Lastly but even more implausible (given the western support he gained) would be to have the Suharto take over from Sukarno in the late 1967 but have the situation then devolve into a civil war of sorts and just have Indonesia in no postion to be able to take West Papua over.

1) Left leaning, yes. But by no means Sukarno was a communist. He got his own brand of socialism, that is Marhaenism.

2) It is actually very unlikely to have OPM gain what they wanted (that is, West Papuan independence) as long as Indonesia is till supported by US over West Papua, and US has a very strong reason to support Indonesia: Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc! Since it was formally annexed by Indonesia, Freeport company has been operating there, absorbing gold, silver, and copper there from us. And it is very unlikely to have Suharto defy US interest, borderline ASB. Seems that he even sacrificed developing Indonesian navy in order to make US more comfortable in doing their interest in this region.

3) IOTL Suharto was already in power since October 1965. And Indonesia has been in control over West Papua since May 1st, 1963.

 

[Doug M.]

One low-probability POD: have the Dutch sell their colony to Australia.

The problem is, the Dutch will have to want to sell it (they didn't), and the Australians will have to want to buy it (they wouldn't). Hum.

Getting really wacky, we could have the Dutch sell it to the Germans before WWI. That doesn't make much sense, but it's less insane than any other POD I can think of. And if it happened, the rest would follow naturally -- Australia would take it as a League of Nations mandate, then it would join the other two Papuan colonies in the Trust Territory, and voila.


Doug M.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

One low-probability POD: have the Dutch sell their colony to Australia.

The problem is, the Dutch will have to want to sell it (they didn't), and the Australians will have to want to buy it (they wouldn't). Hum.

Getting really wacky, we could have the Dutch sell it to the Germans before WWI. That doesn't make much sense, but it's less insane than any other POD I can think of. And if it happened, the rest would follow naturally -- Australia would take it as a League of Nations mandate, then it would join the other two Papuan colonies in the Trust Territory, and voila.


Doug M.

I seriously doubt the Dutch would sell even an island of Nusantara to anyone. This country was basically the only real thing the Dutch had and if they would release this country for whatever reason, something very grave must be made happened beforehand. So get the Netherlands selling any part of DEI/Indonesia won't going to be the PoD, instead the causal event that preceded it.

 

[ColeMercury]

This may require a pre-1900 POD - perhaps one in which none of Papua goes to the Dutch at all, with instead all the north going to Germany & all the south going to Britain. Then Britain acquires German New Guinea, and the country of Papua is later formed in a manner much like PNG in OTL.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

This may require a pre-1900 POD - perhaps one in which none of Papua goes to the Dutch at all, with instead all the north going to Germany & all the south going to Britain. Then Britain acquires German New Guinea, and the country of Papua is later formed in a manner much like PNG in OTL.

A certain Pre-1900 PoD could very well make the whole piece of Papua fall into the British hand at once

 

[Slamet]

A certain Pre-1900 PoD could very well make the whole piece of Papua fall into the British hand at once

If you push hard enough, the Portugese had a fighting chance. I mean, they had just won againts the Spanish.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

If you push hard enough, the Portugese had a fighting chance. I mean, they had just won againts the Spanish.

Depends on the time frame you're currently talking about, however

Now, a Portuguese Papua would be quite interesting to see. Should I suggest it to Thande for his LTTW TL ? But seems that only the French who can really compete with the Dutch over Papua, even though the Portuguese are stronger in that TL....