Prior to the first Gulf War, Iraq was one of the most developed countries in the Middle East. Iraq's GDP Per Capita was $2304 in 1989, and its GDP was $38 Billion. Primary healthcare services reached about 97% of the Urban Population and 78% of the Rural Population, while literacy rates were as high as 89%. Iraq was ranked 50th out of 130 countries on the 1990 UNDP HDI list. All this progress was undone when Saddam invaded Kuwait, resulting in the destruction of Iraq's infrastructure and the decimation of the Iraqi economy. The Gulf War has to be one of the great tragedies of our time, since all the progress that had been achieved prior to the war was largely undone by a single megalomaniac. While looking over the Wikipedia page on the Gulf War, however, I came upon an interesting tidbit:
"Discussions in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, mediated on the Arab League's behalf by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, were held on 31 July and led Mubarak to believe that a peaceful course could be established. The result of the Jeddah talks was an Iraqi demand for $10 billion to cover the lost revenues from Rumaila; the Kuwaiti response was to offer $9 billion. The Iraqi response was to immediately order the invasion."
Let's say for the sake of argument that Iraq either accepts the Kuwaiti offer or the rest of the Arab League is able to convince Kuwait to raise its offer. Without the Gulf War, how would Iraq look today? (I'm thinking that Iraq would have a GDP per capita of $4500-5100 and a population of 38 million) If the Arab Spring isn't butterflied away, do you think it'd look more like what happened in Libya with urbanites leading the charge or more like Syria, where the Islamists and tribal groups have gained the upper hand? And hell, what about the Iraqi armed forces? How would they look?