Iraq, Libya, and Syria during the Arab Spring w/o a 2003 Iraq War

Bashar vacillated to much. He didn't want to come down with an iron first in fear of provoking foreign intervention, but he wasn't willing to give up power too much. In the end, a dictatorship shouldn't bend to popular will unless it intends on dismantling itself - giving in to the crowd without giving up power entirely just makes the regime look weak.
And you think that Bassel would have immediately crushed this uprising?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
And you think that Bassel would have immediately crushed this uprising?
Yes, I believe so. His brutality might have provoked foreign intervention, but assuming it didn't, that would have been the end of the uprising. I also believe that Bassel would have maintained stricter control of the armed forces; any officer suspected of potentially deserting or defecting in a time of crisis would have been removed one way or another in the years before the Arab Spring.
 
Yes, I believe so. His brutality might have provoked foreign intervention, but assuming it didn't, that would have been the end of the uprising. I also believe that Bassel would have maintained stricter control of the armed forces; any officer suspected of potentially deserting or defecting in a time of crisis would have been removed one way or another in the years before the Arab Spring.
Just how many Syrian military officials defected during the Arab Spring in our TL?
 
That's the point. Hafez had what it took to scare the population into submission. Basel also had what it took. Bashar was never supposed to be leader, he was never given the same grooming that Basel got. If Basel never died and was leader of Syria in 2011, the protests would have been crushed like Hama 1982. Assuming that no foreign powers used that as an excuse to intervene, the Arab Spring in Syria would have amounted to nothing - much like the Arab Spring in Bahrain.

Assuming no foreign power intervenes. That is the problem. It will. And thinking that Basel will crush it like Bahrein is silly. Bahrein is a small island which was occupied by Saudi Arabia. Syria is bigger and has (hostile) neighbours.
 
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