Iraq + Kuwait economy? (No Gulf War)

The US decides to not do anything about Saddam other than sanctions, for whatever reason. Saddam gets to keep Kuwait.

In 1989 Iraqi GDP Per Capita was ~3,850 USD.
In 2016 Iraqi GDP Per Capita was around ~5,850 USD
In 2016 Kuwaiti GDP Per Capita was around ~29,000 USD

What would be the size of the Iraqi economy? Without the two Gulf Wars, Iraqi Civil War, ISIS conflict, etc Iraq + Kuwait would probably have 55 million people.

Sanctions here would be comparable to 90s sanctions I suppose, but Iraq would have almost double the oil it did OTL.

How long does Saddam live? He was 69 when executed historically. In 2000 it was reported that he had Cancer.

Qusay would probably be the one to succeed Saddam, not Uday.
 

Marc

Donor
I believe that you really have to give some plausible reason. Not defending Kuwait is so unlikely, considering the consequences politically and economically for the the United States, Western Europe and the rest of the Middle East.
Whatever outlier reason, the subsequent outcomes are heavily predicated on the why.
 
An alternative suggestion here, gentlemen.

Assume the British decide to be lazy and lump Kuwait in with Iraq, making it part of a whole mandate, and have it governed from Baghdad. Now, I'll admit there are a few important differences in culture and history between the two countries, but let's just assume that Iraq has Kuwaiti territory every since independence in 1932, and work from there. Assume the Kuwaiti territory is a 'special administrative zone' that received a massive investment boost to give it a start in 1990.
 
An alternative suggestion here, gentlemen.

Assume the British decide to be lazy and lump Kuwait in with Iraq, making it part of a whole mandate, and have it governed from Baghdad. Now, I'll admit there are a few important differences in culture and history between the two countries, but let's just assume that Iraq has Kuwaiti territory every since independence in 1932, and work from there. Assume the Kuwaiti territory is a 'special administrative zone' that received a massive investment boost to give it a start in 1990.
If that was the case would the Iran-Iraq war have been butterflied away because "Greater Iraq" had adequate access to the sea? Also would the Berlin-Baghdad railway have been extended into Kuwait?
 
. . . Sanctions here would be comparable to 90s sanctions I suppose, but Iraq would have almost double the oil it did OTL. . .
The sanctions caused more loss of life than did the two wars themselves (1991 & 2003).

And I say this as an American citizen who was very skeptical when war drums began beating almost from the very beginnng in Aug. 1990.
 
If that was the case would the Iran-Iraq war have been butterflied away because "Greater Iraq" had adequate access to the sea? Also would the Berlin-Baghdad railway have been extended into Kuwait?
Not necessarily. Under the Shah, Iran had been leaning on its Arab neighbors with the dual threat of its massive army and its closeness to the USA to settle territorial claims. With Iran a mess due to the new Islamic Revolution and the purge of officers loyal to the Shah, its army would be in no condition to fight off the Iraqi army (or so Saddam thought). Plus, they wouldn't have the US' support on this one, making them a more enticing target. He figured that the Arab-populated zones in Southwest Iran would make a good addition to Iraq (never mind they were all Shi'ites and thus wouldn't have responded well to his rule).

Not to mention that the Islamic Revolution threatened to sweep into Iraq's large Shi'ite population, so Saddam needed to neuter them fast.
 
Not necessarily. Under the Shah, Iran had been leaning on its Arab neighbors with the dual threat of its massive army and its closeness to the USA to settle territorial claims. With Iran a mess due to the new Islamic Revolution and the purge of officers loyal to the Shah, its army would be in no condition to fight off the Iraqi army (or so Saddam thought). Plus, they wouldn't have the US' support on this one, making them a more enticing target. He figured that the Arab-populated zones in Southwest Iran would make a good addition to Iraq (never mind they were all Shi'ites and thus wouldn't have responded well to his rule).

Not to mention that the Islamic Revolution threatened to sweep into Iraq's large Shi'ite population, so Saddam needed to neuter them fast.
Therefore, it would have been more likely that Greater Iraq would have attacked Iran.
 
This is from the addenda "National Economies" of an early 1970s Encyclopaedia Britannica Book of the Year that I photocopied many years ago.

I was going to do it only for Iraq and Kuwait, but I ended up including all the other Middle Eastern countries and "Greater Egypt." The source document didn't say what the populations were so I divided the Total GNP by the GNP Per Capita.

Middle East Economies 1970.png
 
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This one is from the Encyclopaedia Britannica Book of the Year 1985. In common with the earlier table I calculated the population by dividing the GNP by the GNP per capita.

Middle East Economies 1985.png
 
And finally for now this was compiled from the Encyclopaedia Britannica Book of the Year 1990. In common with the other two tables the population has been calculated by dividing the GNP by the per capita.

Middle East Economies 1990.png
 
Not necessarily. Under the Shah, Iran had been leaning on its Arab neighbors with the dual threat of its massive army and its closeness to the USA to settle territorial claims. With Iran a mess due to the new Islamic Revolution and the purge of officers loyal to the Shah, its army would be in no condition to fight off the Iraqi army (or so Saddam thought). Plus, they wouldn't have the US' support on this one, making them a more enticing target. He figured that the Arab-populated zones in Southwest Iran would make a good addition to Iraq (never mind they were all Shi'ites and thus wouldn't have responded well to his rule).

Not to mention that the Islamic Revolution threatened to sweep into Iraq's large Shi'ite population, so Saddam needed to neuter them fast.
Those tables are crude calculations, but Greater Iraq is about twice as rich as OTL Iraq between 1970 and 1981, while in 1987 it's about 75% richer than Iraq IOTL.

Would Greater Iraq's armed forces have been increased proportionately to help it stand up to the Shah's Iran?

In 1970 Greater Iraq would be 55% as rich as Iran, which increased to 82% in 1981 and 75% as rich in 1987.
 
An alternative suggestion here, gentlemen.

Assume the British decide to be lazy and lump Kuwait in with Iraq, making it part of a whole mandate, and have it governed from Baghdad. Now, I'll admit there are a few important differences in culture and history between the two countries, but let's just assume that Iraq has Kuwaiti territory every since independence in 1932, and work from there. Assume the Kuwaiti territory is a 'special administrative zone' that received a massive investment boost to give it a start in 1990.
Another possibility. A surviving Arab Federation consisting of Iraq, Jordan and Kuwait.

IIRC Kuwait wanted to join when it was still a British Protectorate. What if the Iraqi Revolution of 1958 did not happen and Kuwait joined the Arab Federation in 1961? That is upon becoming independent from the UK.
 
Another possibility. A surviving Arab Federation consisting of Iraq, Jordan and Kuwait.

IIRC Kuwait wanted to join when it was still a British Protectorate. What if the Iraqi Revolution of 1958 did not happen and Kuwait joined the Arab Federation in 1961? That is upon becoming independent from the UK.
I see that as unlikely. The Kuwaiti emirs were not going to join a Hashemite personal union, and tended to be closer to other Gulf states than their northern neighbors.

Still, an interesting scenario, if a bit farfetched. Granted, Jordan's economy is almost negligible compared to Kuwait and Iraq, but the extra population and extra port on the Red Sea would improve its options quite a bit.
 
I see that as unlikely. The Kuwaiti emirs were not going to join a Hashemite personal union, and tended to be closer to other Gulf states than their northern neighbors.

Still, an interesting scenario, if a bit farfetched. Granted, Jordan's economy is almost negligible compared to Kuwait and Iraq, but the extra population and extra port on the Red Sea would improve its options quite a bit.
FWIW I agree that it's unlikely.

I agree that a Red Sea port would be useful. Perhaps the Kirkuk to Haifa oil pipeline would have been diverted to Aqaba in the 1960s. If there is still an Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s it would give them a safe route to export their oil from.

In the 1930s there was a proposal for a standard gauge railway line from Baghdad to Haifa IOTL. The Baghdad to Haifa section might be built in the 1960s IOTL. Then the section of the Hejaz Railway from Aman to Ma'an would be rebuilt to the standard gauge. Finally, the branch from Ma'an to Aqaba would built in the 1960s (instead of the 1970s) and to the standard gauge.
 
This is the data in Posts 8, 9 and 10 arranged in a different way.

This is OTL in 1970 arranged in GNP order, instead of alphabetically.

Middle East Economies 1970 OTL in order of size.png

This is TTL for 1970 also in GNP order.

Middle East Economies 1970 TTL in order of size.png

Now the early 1980s OTL in GNP order...

Middle East Economies 1981 OTL in order of size.png

Followed by the early 1980s in TTL order...

Middle East Economies 1981 TTL in order of size.png

The late 1980s in OTL order...

Middle East Economies 1987 OTL in order of size.png

And finally the late 1980s in TTL order...

Middle East Economies 1987 TTL in order of size.png
 
It would be interesting to see Greater Iraq vs. Israel war in 1980's.
We think that there would still be a 1980s Gulf War between Greater Iraq and Iran.

However, if it did happen Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran might be unofficial allies on the principle that "your enemy's enemy is your friend."
 
If that was the case would the Iran-Iraq war have been butterflied away because "Greater Iraq" had adequate access to the sea? Also would the Berlin-Baghdad railway have been extended into Kuwait?

The Iran-Iraq War would be butterflied away because ME history would be so changed Khomeini and Hussein are unlikely to take over. We are talking a POD almost a half-century earlier.
 
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