(2) Alternatively, they might have succeeded by getting along better with
Qassem and gradually gaining more and more influence within his regime.
Obviously, the Kirkuk massacre hurt the ICP badly here, but even before
that, Qassem seems to have begun to curb the ICP's influence. So maybe
what we need is a Qassem who underestimates the communist menace and
overestimates the nationalist one, rather than vice versa as in OTL. (In
1963 the ICP appealed to Qassem for arms to help them resist the Ba'athist
coup that they said was imminent, but Qassem, confident that he could
defeat the coup on his own, declined.)
Obviously, communist parties face serious obstacles in Muslim countries.
Still, South Yemen was officially "Marxist-Leninist" for many years, so I
would not rule out the possibility of a Communist Iraq. Admittedly,
though, the IRC had only a brief window of opportunity under Qassem, and
it is questionable whether their leadership had the competence to take
advantage of it.
https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/U7F8yOI_fnE/wk9ERyli0OQJ