Iran's Military without the Islamic Revolution

[Simon]

I was about to mention this. Iran Air showed no sign of cancelling its Concorde orders before the revolution. However there is the problem of India forbidding supersonic transit in its airspace- a serious dent to any operation. There's a "what-if" essay written, by someone who's clearly a monarchist, that I was going to respond to in my next post. But let me say that Iran Air would occupy a position comparable to Emirates, if not stronger, today. Indeed, the cities of the gulf would markedly smaller in such a scenario. Dubai would be more like OTL Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi like OTL Doha, Doha more akin to OTL Kuwait. You'd have Kish Island as the Macau-Dubai analogue of the Gulf, while Tehran and other cities would capture much of the financial aspect. I'd easily believe the world's tallest building would be (or would have been) in Iran ATL.

Well that's a bit of a pisser India not allowing supersonic transits. Imagine if someone were to run a London-Tehran Concorde route, then onwards to Singapore - even if you do have to skirt around India, and from there it splits to separate Adelaide and Tokyo routes. Doing some very rough back of the envelope workings you could make Tehran in three and a half hours, London to Singapore in roughly the same time as a normal airliner takes to get to New York and get to Tokyo in ten hours or so. Of course it would probably be hideously expensive but I could see the Shah having Iran Air run the routes as a prestige loss-leader.

 

[Parterre]

So here's that essay, its snippets.

What did Mohammad Reza Pahlavi dream for Iran , the Middle East and the World? Let ' s review his most feasible plans that by now could have made our country part of what would have become the G9 group.

Would Iran have made it into the G7/8/9 before the formation of the G20 or its ATL counterpart? Russia joined in 1997, so I'd say a cutoff of 2000 works, that Iran would have had to have an economy comparable to the Gn members. In 1990, Iran's GDP would have been $290.81 billion, which was smaller than Canada at $582.73 billion. In 1995, Iran's GDP would have been $448.18 billion, still smaller than Canada at $590.51 billion. In 2000, Iran's GDP would have been $695.11 billion, still smaller than Canada at $724.23 billion. Even though it would have broken into the the top ten economies by the late 1990s, it seems possible but improbable. However Spain's continual non-inclusion casts doubt upon whether Iran could have gotten in at all.

Michael Heseltine a junior minister in the department of aerospace and industry at the time who later became Margaret Thatcher ' s deputy Prime Minister (1995-1997) visited the Shah in May 1972. In his recent autobiography, "Life In The Jungle"� published in 2000 he wrote; "The two big opportunities of my trip were thought to be Tehran and Singapore . It was understood that the Shah of Iran had a vision of Tehran as a staging post between West and East. He saw Concorde as an important part of the process, if Tehran was seen as a major stopover on its journey both ways. Our strategy was to fly him in the aircraft and hopefully get him to confirm his options to buy. We also needed his agreement to overflying rights. Much of Iran is open desert where the footprint of the sound barrier would have little or no impact."

Like I mentioned, Iran Air would very likely be one of the world's largest airlines in this TL. The Concorde would be mainly a prestige item, but it's worth noting anyway.

In the same year, the Shah spoke of creating a new grouping of Indian Ocean countries on the basis of economic, political and eventually naval cooperation, to "secure our shipping lanes" and keep "non-regional powers out."

When Iran ' s GNP (Gross National Product) rose by 40% towards the end of 1974 and when we bought over 25% of steel-making subsidiary of the Krupp group from its German owners - an agreement which could set the pattern for investment of Middle Eastern countries in Western Europe , the European Union was still considered at its infancy. The Shah, aware of the economical centers of power in the United States and the then European Economic Community, had come to conclude a plan of his own. A project that could help to counter balance the Western economical might with that of the fast Asian developing countries,- the Indian Ocean Economic Union or Common Market.

Michael Hornsby a journalist from the Times newspaper reported from Delhi on October 3, 1974 on the Shah ' s next regional vision. "The Shah envisaged the membership of his proposed organization being restricted initially to the "northern tier-of the Indian Ocean" Iran, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Burma, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore " but eventually extending to Indo China, Australia and even African countries."

An interesting idea, I'm not so sure how far the idea went but I could see it gaining ground. Iran would have to tread delicately, and I think it could find common ground here with Indonesia, and Thailand, particularly. I'm also inclined to note we'd regard the Shah in the same way we do Lee Kuan Yew today, as a brilliant autocrat who developed his country, which is interesting. I believe Iran was closer to Pakistan than it was India, but I do think they would both be able to agree join. Burma would be out for the time being. Oman would join, as would Iraq, etc. Maybe Somalia, then being pro-US, would join as well, and Kenya. I also think an intervention in Ethiopia, arming the few monarchist movements would not unexpected from Iran. Sudan is also a nation I could see joining, especially under Numeiry, who could very well move close to Iran as a relative moderate.

But the note about Krupp is worth paying attention to- the origins of technology transfer for the heavy industries that would form the backbone of Iranian industrialisation in the 1980s and 1990s.

Two months after the Shah ' s death in Egypt, Iran ' s brave armed forces who were trained as first class troops with the best armaments but without their top generals who had all been executed in the previous twenty months, were the key factors in stopping Saddam Hussein invading our country in an eight year war with Iraq.

Had the Shah of Iran remained in power, the Iran-Iraq war would not have occurred. By 1975, Iran ' s superior military and economic power, supported diplomatically by her good neighbour policy that promised peace and progress for all, had drawn Saddam Hussein to a politics of mutual respect and friendly interaction. The Algiers Agreement of 1975 and Saddam ' s expulsion of Khomeini from Iraq in 1978 attest to the efficiency of Iranian power and diplomacy. Had the war not occurred, a million Iranians and Iraqis would have not died in vain and several million would not have been forced from home and family.

Moreover, Iran ' s national power and international prestige, and her interest in the Persian Gulf, would have made it impossible for Saddam to invade Kuwait . With the fall of the Soviet system, Iran , boasting the most advanced economy, technology and military in the region, would be the hub of peaceful and profitable diplomatic, cultural, economic and commercial relations in Central Asia and the Middle East. Iran ' s power and her friendly and rational relations with the West would have made the presence of American troops and weapons in the Persian Gulf region redundant and consequently anti-American feeling would not have been excited by the likes of Khomeini or Khamanei or Osama Bin Laden. Islamist movements and organizations would not have the Islamic Republic as a model for emulation or support for expansion. A powerful, secular, and peaceful Iran - non-Arab and non - Jewish - would be a pillar on which both Israel and the Arab world could lean for balance and security as they and the world strived for peace in justice and dignity.

Henry Kissinger in Years of Upheaval in relation to the Shah and his fall wrote; "What overthrew the Shah was a coalition of legitimate grievances and an inchoate accumulation of resentment aimed at the very concept of modernity and at the Shah ' s role as a moderate world leader. The Shah was despised less for what he did wrong than for what he did right. He was brought down by those who hated reform and the West; who were against absolute rule only if it was based on secular principles. The immediate victors were not enlightened dissidents of liberal democratic persuasion but the most regressive group in Iranian society: the religious ayatollahs who identified human dignity not with freedom and progress but with an ancient moral and religious code."�

Worth noting, in the ultimate takeaway that the Middle East in ATL would be a substantially more peaceful place. Unbelievably so. It would have been perhaps a large Iranian armed force commensurate with its size would have been considered excessive, even.

http://www.sarafrazan.net/TheLateShahs .htm

Well that's a bit of a pisser India not allowing supersonic transits. Imagine if someone were to run a London-Tehran Concorde route, then onwards to Singapore - even if you do have to skirt around India, and from there it splits to separate Adelaide and Tokyo routes. Doing some very rough back of the envelope workings you could make Tehran in three and a half hours, London to Singapore in roughly the same time as a normal airliner takes to get to New York and get to Tokyo in ten hours or so. Of course it would probably be hideously expensive but I could see the Shah having Iran Air run the routes as a prestige loss-leader.

If Iran could compel India into allowing supersonic transits, then it is possible Singapore Airlines would keep its own Concorde orders; it flew leased ones for a while to Bahrain, undoubtedly if Iran Air was flying it they'd fly to Tehran. It could be possible to take Concorde with BA from JFK to London Heathrow...

With Iran Air from Heathrow to the new Tehran Ahmadabad airport...

And with Singapore Airlines from Ahmadabad to Changi...

 

[jmc247]

I'd doubt we'd have a Bush Jr.

Bush Jr. in 2000 ran on economic and social policy messages almost entirely in 2000, not it was not in any way a foreign policy centric campaign. Don't confuse post-911 Bush's election campaign against Kerry with the one with Gore in 2000. Bush wasn't elected in 2000 to be a good foreign policy President, he was elected to cut taxes and not have affairs in the White House.

 

[Simon]

Looks as though we've been reading the article but from different sites, I ran across it a while back when trying to research something else about Imperial Iran.

 

[Parterre]

Bush Jr. in 2000 ran on economic and social policy messages almost entirely in 2000, not it was not in any way a foreign policy centric campaign. Don't confuse post-911 Bush's election campaign against Kerry with the one with Gore in 2000. Bush wasn't elected in 2000 to be a good foreign policy President, he was elected to cut taxes and not have affairs in the White House.

I'm well aware, but I'm sure he'd be butterflied away by the change of things.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

While the essay (and TL in general) does present a much more peaceful Middle East, I do think that Iran would probably be a very large target for terror attacks sadly, probably from anti-Iranian sentiment from Iraq, angry Islamists inside Iran, and of course Saudi sponsored fools.

Otherwise, perhaps Iraq and Syria form a closer coalition to try and prevent Iran from having a full say over the region (a micro-version of China and Russia's agreement against America today) as well as to pool their resources in the (unlikely) event of war.

 

[Parterre]

Well that's a bit of a pisser India not allowing supersonic transits. Imagine if someone were to run a London-Tehran Concorde route, then onwards to Singapore - even if you do have to skirt around India, and from there it splits to separate Adelaide and Tokyo routes. Doing some very rough back of the envelope workings you could make Tehran in three and a half hours, London to Singapore in roughly the same time as a normal airliner takes to get to New York and get to Tokyo in ten hours or so. Of course it would probably be hideously expensive but I could see the Shah having Iran Air run the routes as a prestige loss-leader.

This may be of note: http://www.greatcirclemapper.net/en/great-circle-mapper/route/KJFK-EGLL-OIIE-WSSS/aircraft/135.html

Of course, it doesn't include stopovers or anything. It would still be a lot shorter than the current 18 hours SQ21 takes between Newark and Changi, or the 22 hours SQ25 takes from JFK via Frankfurt.

While the essay (and TL in general) does present a much more peaceful Middle East, I do think that Iran would probably be a very large target for terror attacks sadly, probably from anti-Iranian sentiment from Iraq, angry Islamists inside Iran, and of course Saudi sponsored fools.

Otherwise, perhaps Iraq and Syria form a closer coalition to try and prevent Iran from having a full say over the region (a micro-version of China and Russia's agreement against America today) as well as to pool their resources in the (unlikely) event of war.

If al-Bakr is able to successfully reconcile the Syrian and Iraqi Baath parties, then I think they could move back together, and would form a strong threat. But if Saddam takes power as in OTL I would imagine the Syrians would see Iran as the lesser of two evils.

But Sunni/Arab resentment at Iranian hegemony could boil over, but I think it's worth noting the effect OTL events have had on the course of terror. You'd have a lot fewer suicide bombings, because it was done less ATL. It depends on how the Iranian-backed governments rule. If the Dawa in Iraq are as inclusive as they were before their suppression by Saddam, I don't think you'd have much violence from there, if they are more confessionally organised then there is ground for conflict. You might have a Cedar Revolution-style movement in Lebanon, but the Iranian hand there is a lot gentler than the Syrian one OTL. Without Hezbollah I doubt you would have much of the OTL tension. Nothing like Hariri's assassination, certainly.

Iran would also strenuously object to the funding of Wahabism and Salafist movements.

 

[Simon]

This may be of note: http://www.greatcirclemapper.net/en/great-circle-mapper/route/KJFK-EGLL-OIIE-WSSS/aircraft/135.html

Of course, it doesn't include stopovers or anything. It would still be a lot shorter than the current 18 hours SQ21 takes between Newark and Changi, or the 22 hours SQ25 takes from JFK via Frankfurt.

Interesting site. Would they be able to get, or want, overflight rights from the Soviets? A lot of the military hardware mentioned previously was pointed north to make sure that they behaved themselves and didn't try anything in Iran. The rough figures I was using assumed that the London-Tehran flight would run roughly south-east down over France and the edge of Switzerland before going along the Italian mainland/Adriatic, turn east once you're past Albania and then over Greece and Turkey until you hit Lake Van, and then on to Tehran.

 

[Parterre]

Would Eastern Europe be such a problem? I don't know.

Something I found, right in the vein of this thread...

DIARY, OCT 7, 2012 (16 MEHR, 2571)

Being a woman engineer in a managerial position in Iran is hard, but rewarding. The week finally ended in triumph for me yesterday, as we were able to successfully lift the Israeli satellite into orbit from Chabahar International Space Port. This was the heaviest payload we've ever attempted with our new Atlas VIII orbital launch systems. I have to admit that The VIII series are the best launch vehicles ever designed by Iran as of yet, ever since we bought General Dynamics from the Americans back in 2005. The Israelis were quite pleased, and they have been one of our best clients, in the past 20 years.

Reaching such a position for someone like me is quite a feat, my mother keeps telling me. She keeps reminding me of how things have changed with Iran and women over the past century. Only 2 generations ago, women were basically confined to secretarial jobs at best, if not the traditional household tasks. Today, we've had two female Prime Ministers, and the current speaker of the Majles, a gifted woman. I've spoken to her once. She seems like a very intelligent person. Always an inspiration to women around the world. A true visionary. And she has to be too, thanks to her outstanding training at Tehran University Law School. I heard their school this year is ranked tied with Stanford Law School in the World's top 10 universities. Even so, they still can't beat our school Pahlavi University! We have 15 medical Nobel laureates alone teaching on our renowned campus at Shiraz, and our museum, designed by Alvar Alto, is by far the world's top academic cultural institution. UT may be excellent in Law. But we are #1 in the biosciences. Hands down. The other day I overheard a colleague say that Marvdasht has more bio-tech start-ups than Northern California!

http://iranian.com/main/blog/fesenjoon2/fiction-iran-2012-had-there-been-no-khomeini.html

Obviously wishful think, although Iran did bid for the 1984 Summer Olympics...

This page of unbuilt projects is also worth looking at: http://www.aryamehr.org/eng/aryamehr/future/index.htm Of note is the airport:

With Iran rapidly becoming the hub of airline routes across the Middle East, Tippetts-Abbott-McCarthy-Stratton of New York and Abdol Aziz Farmanfarmaian and associates of Tehran have joined together to develop a major airport facility for the nation comparable to the largest in the world. It is to be located 35 km south-west of Tehran on 12,000 hectares of land between two major freeways which, along with the future high-speed rapid transit link, will provide direct access from the capital. In the initial stage, one domestic and one international module totalling 36 gates will be constructed. By the year 2000, the series of five terminal modules and four runways in dual parallel configuration, with just over 100 loading/parking positions, will be capable of handling and annual traffic load of 12 million international passengers, 14,900,000 domestic passengers and 620,000 metric tonnes of cargo.

Terminal modules straddle a central spine road and transit system connecting the two freeways to Tehran. This spine also allows for inter-airport circulation and for under-terminal parking with direct vertical check-in and baggage claim. The airfield provides for the most advanced Air Traffic Control procedures. In addition to the terminals, hangars and cargo areas, a residential town is planned for airport employees.

TAMS-AFFA, Consulting Engineers and Architects

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

If there were no unrest, the 14th World Jamboree would have been held in Iran. The politics went into the pot, and it was hurriedly moved to Denmark. Which made my brother happy. Lots of cute, English speaking female Scandinavian Scouts....

 

[Parterre]

I feel like Iran should get to annex something. Azerbaijan? If failing that, perhaps lend support to Armenia? A Caucasian "adventure" in the 1990s would be interesting.

 

[Dfront21]

I feel like Iran should get to annex something. Azerbaijan? If failing that, perhaps lend support to Armenia? A Caucasian "adventure" in the 1990s would be interesting.

Would probably get Azerbaijan as the Shah was half-Azeri, his wife was Azeri, and most of staff was Azeri.

 

[Binky the Clown]

I feel like Iran should get to annex something. Azerbaijan? If failing that, perhaps lend support to Armenia? A Caucasian "adventure" in the 1990s would be interesting.

Hmm, the post-Soviet world would certainly be interesting for a NATO-aligned Iran. Of all the potential conflicts, the most likely probably involves Iran and Turkmenistan, since they do have simmering territorial disputes between each other. Since both are against 'teh imperialist west' IOTL, these disputes haven't amounted to much, but ATL we might see border clashes between Turkmenistan and Iran.

As for annexing Azerbaijan, I don't think that's terribly likely. The Caucasus remains very much a part of Russia's sphere-of-influence, and I doubt Iran would want to provoke the Russian bear - even if it is Russia under Yeltsin. On the other hand, extending Iranian economic influence over Azerbaijan is certainly doable. It's interesting that you bring up Iran Air in one of your posts. I doubt they'd be like Emirates today. Emirates is the way it is because it's effectively an airline with a single hub and no domestic market. If you want to see what Iran Air would've looked like without the revolution, check out Turkish Airlines. Like Iran, they're a nation with a fairly large domestic market, but also a globe straddling network based out of Istanbul.

 

[Parterre]

I've been imagining a crisis of sorts, and I think I have one. Iran successfully intervened in Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Iraq, and now sought to intervene in Bahrain during the 1990s upheaval. In Feb. 1995, after two months of protests by the Bahraini opposition, the Iranian Navy surrounds the island and forces the Emir to surrender to a bloodless invasion. The occupation and installation of a new government goes fine, but it causes tensions to soar in the Persian Gulf.

And you're right, but Iran Air would be even bigger.

 

[Have Blue-117]

What sort of replacements might we be looking at for some of Iran's older equipment (Chieftains, F-84's, F-86's, M-47's, M-48's, F-4's, F-5's, etc.)? What sort of MBT would Iran have ordered - Abrams or Challenger (1 or 2 - or both)? What of their F-14's, F-15's, F-16's and F-18's? Would the older ones have been upgraded or replaced entirely? What sort of next-gen fighter would Iran be looking at? And hell, would Iran be looking a new submarines for its navy? Since they ordered Type 206's and Type 209's from Germany, would Type 212's and Type 214's be likely replacements?

As far as aircraft are concerned, the Shah had an additional 79 Tomcats on order bringing the total to 158, although more could have been ordered. Its likely that they would be updated to Super Tomcat 21 standards. Although Iran wouldn't be able to buy the F-22 to replace it, they would have bought the ASF-14 instead, which is more than enough for any threats they might face.

The 300 F-16's the Shah had on order would have replaced the F-5, F-84, and F-86's, forming the backbone of the IIAF. These F-16's would have been MLU'd with Block 52/60's to replace worn or lost jets. To replace these, Iran would no doubt be a partner in the JSF program who could potentially order over 400 aircraft.

Now these are kind of un-necesary IMO, but the Shah was a big investor in the F-18 and was going to order 100+ aircraft to replace the F-4 in the strike role, as well as provide maritime strike and interdiction from bases along the coast of the Persian Gulf.

I've also heard the the Shah was interested in the A-10 and the Harrier, which was going to be operated aboard the Invincible Class carriers they had on order. With the Shah's funding the A-10B would have probably been built, and by now the fleet would have received upgrades along the lines of the A-10C. The Harriers would be replaced by F-35B's.

Iran had 7 E-3's on order, which would have received upgrades throughout their service life. Iran had a good relationship with Israel, so its possible they could have bought Phalcons to replace these. They had a large fleet of 707 tankers that need replacing, so I imagine more 747 based tankers are in the cards, most likely KC-33A's based on the 747-400. As for transports C-17's and possibly a couple C-5's for strategic transport duties, I'm not sure how close Iran and France were so the A400M may be out, so C-130J and C-27J for lighter duties. Their P-3s would get replaced by P-8's.

For the Navy, Type 214's to replace older 206 and 209's. The rest I'm not sure of but Burkes would replace their oldest destroyers while the Kidds and Spruances get overhauls. New frigates like the Type 26 would replace their older ships, and America class or Juan Carlos class to replace the Invincibles.

As for the Army, locally built and upgraded Challenger 2's would replace almost their entire tank fleet. I'm not sure about IFV's, probably a tossup between the CV90, Puma, K21, Dardo and ASCOD. For APC's its probably a tossup as well with the AMV, Piranha V, Pandur II, Pars, Boxer, and Freccia. M270 MLRS, AS90 Braveheart, Centauro 120 and M777 are all likely additions.

 

[Binky the Clown]

As far as aircraft are concerned, the Shah had an additional 79 Tomcats on order bringing the total to 158, although more could have been ordered. Its likely that they would be updated to Super Tomcat 21 standards. Although Iran wouldn't be able to buy the F-22 to replace it, they would have bought the ASF-14 instead, which is more than enough for any threats they might face.

The 300 F-16's the Shah had on order would have replaced the F-5, F-84, and F-86's, forming the backbone of the IIAF. These F-16's would have been MLU'd with Block 52/60's to replace worn or lost jets. To replace these, Iran would no doubt be a partner in the JSF program who could potentially order over 400 aircraft.

Interesting. I was always under the impression that the F-5's would've been kept in service even when the F-14's/F-15's/F-16's were delivered. It makes sense that Iran would upgrade their F-16A's instead of scrapping them: you don't buy $3 billion dollars worth of jets only to scrap them after 10 years. Thank you for answering my question. Out of curiosity, do you think we could see a Super Viper order from Iran, owing to delays in the F-35 program? Or (even more interesting), maybe Iran decides to upgrade its F-16's to Super Viper standards?

 

[Sulemain]

It's like a gearnut from here got hold of a country...

It's beautiful.

 

[Parterre]

Interesting. I was always under the impression that the F-5's would've been kept in service even when the F-14's/F-15's/F-16's were delivered. It makes sense that Iran would upgrade their F-16A's instead of scrapping them: you don't buy $3 billion dollars worth of jets only to scrap them after 10 years. Thank you for answering my question. Out of curiosity, do you think we could see a Super Viper order from Iran, owing to delays in the F-35 program? Or (even more interesting), maybe Iran decides to upgrade its F-16's to Super Viper standards?

I mean it's interesting to consider. IMO, a sustainable Pahlavi Iran would, as I pointed out before, have lowered expenditures between 1973-9. So that definitely means military cuts. You had a lack of capacity that created bottlenecks everywhere. There were helicopters (can't recall if they were military, maybe these were the ones they were going to use to move goods from the overcrowded ports that couldn't go on the overcrowded railways) sitting on the side of roads rusting away due to a lack of places to put them.

I mean even in OTL the UK had the Invincibles pulled because they saw Iran didn't have the capacity to man them. But I think they'd be able to support at least two by the mid 1980s. However I'm convinced their replacements would be indigenous derivatives, by 2000 Iran would definitely have the capacity to do so. As for proper carriers I could see Iran feeling the need for a proper one, maybe buying an ex-RN or MF carrier. I think they would work with BAE and Thales Group in developing 2-3 carriers for Iran today.

Don't also underestimate the role of purchasing capacity- as I pointed out earlier Iran had a stake in Krupp, and owned 20% of Mercedes as well. It was the Shah who pretty much told Mercedes to develop the G-Wagen.

 

[Have Blue-117]

Interesting. I was always under the impression that the F-5's would've been kept in service even when the F-14's/F-15's/F-16's were delivered. It makes sense that Iran would upgrade their F-16A's instead of scrapping them: you don't buy $3 billion dollars worth of jets only to scrap them after 10 years. Thank you for answering my question. Out of curiosity, do you think we could see a Super Viper order from Iran, owing to delays in the F-35 program? Or (even more interesting), maybe Iran decides to upgrade its F-16's to Super Viper standards?

Well anything is possible, especially with the Shah. I'm guessing Iran would be a level 2 partner in the JSF but that still means deliveries starting in 2015 at the earliest. It's possible but as a stopgap Block 52 and MLU Vipers are fine. Besides if Iran was a JSF partner you can bet they would be among the first countries getting them.

 

[Parterre]

Well anything is possible, especially with the Shah. I'm guessing Iran would be a level 2 partner in the JSF but that still means deliveries starting in 2015 at the earliest. It's possible but as a stopgap Block 52 and MLU Vipers are fine. Besides if Iran was a JSF partner you can bet they would be among the first countries getting them.

I could see Iran as level 1.