Iran without the revolution

[British Republic]

More active participation in international contests like Miss Universe, Miss World and Miss Earth.

More diverse film and broadcasting industry, especially in producing television dramas; imagine a possible Israeli-Iranian co-production about Esther and the origin of Purim.

The film industry is going to be doing much better than it already is OTL?

And, expect a series of concerts by Iranian-born singer Rita, as well as more frequent Persian-language album releases.

Who is she?

 

[ramones1986]

The film industry is going to be doing much better than it already is OTL?

Just without the obvious censorship

Who is she?

Rita, a well-known Israeli singer who was born in the Iranian capital. Ask Minchandre (an AH dude from Tel Aviv) for more details.

 

[Delta Force]

It seems you have an idea on Iran Air using Concorde Bs which would fix the noise issues and give enough range for pretty much any city in Europe and Asia. What Destinations could be served do you think? I would suggest mainly cities to Europe and Tokyo for a start.

Speaking of which Tehran is in a very good position for flights as Emirates and the other Gulf Airlines is (maybe more so) for Asia-Africa, West/South Asia-Americas, Europe-Asia-Oceania and Europe-East Africa flights.

When you add the much larger local market which by the end of the 20th century can afford such flights and the earlier set up them the Gulf Airlines it would mean Iran Air would one of the largest airlines in the world if not the largest in some measurements with 500-600 planes at least an a large section of them rather big ones.

They would be very keen on the 747-400 as soon as Boeing can make it and a ATL 777 like plane as well to replace the 747SPs. They would also be keen on bigger and longer range planes of both versions.

If you think Emirates and Watar Airways are "major" rivals to airlines across the world then Iran Air would be a even bigger airline. In fact many other airlines in the region would likely go out of business such as Malsysia, Gulf Air and Air India unless they step up their game, which in the case of India might not happen like in OTL. It would also help Israelis bypass the Arab States in relation to air travel in a way Turkish Airlines does in OTL.

Actually after suggesting it it shows how much potental Iran lost when the Islamists came to power .

Imperial Iran would be in an interesting position. Unlike the other large airlines of the Middle East, it would have a large domestic population as well. Consider how important the Japanese and Korean airlines are for Pacific travel and airline orders. Now imagine a nation like that, but with petroleum and centrally located between the world's major air routes.

Perhaps Iran Air could become a major customer for the 300 seat American SST given the right PoD. That would really help an SST business model. Another option would be a stretched Concorde, depending on how difficult that would be to accomplish. There might even be a second generation SST in the 1990s, depending on how things go.

Iran would be very keen on nuclear technology both for civilian use and milltary use, which would mean by the late 2000s ITTL they would be one of the leading nations in nuclear technology. I would also agree that eventually the Americans would accept it, in fact they might even welcome it.

There are many top Iranian scientists - they just don't live in Iran. Most of them fled Iran after the Revolution, with the new crop of scientists never going back after receiving training and permanent residency for themselves and their families overseas.

 

[British Republic]

Just without the obvious censorship

Agreed.

Rita, a well-known Israeli singer who was born in the Iranian capital. Ask Minchandre (an AH dude from Tel Aviv) for more details.

Just found a wiki page about her, it states that she left Israel in 1970. Do you know why she did that?

Imperial Iran would be in an interesting position. Unlike the other large airlines of the Middle East, it would have a large domestic population as well. Consider how important the Japanese and Korean airlines are for Pacific travel and airline orders. Now imagine a nation like that, but with petroleum and centrally located between the world's major air routes.

The clost example in OTL I can think of is Turkish Airlines but they only started to expand to a large degree for only 10 years, another way to put it would be that it would be Emirates with a large domestic base.

Thus Iran Air in itself would be a very interesting butterfly in its own right.

Perhaps Iran Air could become a major customer for the 300 seat American SST given the right PoD. That would really help an SST business model.

Reviving Boeing 2707? I would think it would need to have quiter engines and enough range to do Tehran-New York City and Tehran-Tokyo-Los Angeles for a start. Then perhaps such a plan might come into operation for Iran Air.

Another option would be a stretched Concorde, depending on how difficult that would be to accomplish. There might even be a second generation SST in the 1990s, depending on how things go.

Could Conorde be stretched or would there have to be a new design? Certainly a 2nd Generation SST would be ordered by the airline by now at least ITTL.

Anyway here is a picture of what a Iran Air Concorde would look like:

There are many top Iranian scientists - they just don't live in Iran. Most of them fled Iran after the Revolution, with the new crop of scientists never going back after receiving training and permanent residency for themselves and their families overseas.

Were do they work now? In Europe and North America?

 

[ramones1986]

Just found a wiki page about her, it states that she left Israel in 1970. Do you know why she did that?

You mean she left Iran or she left for Israel in 1970.

 

[RLBH]

Could Ira become as major a shipbuilder as Korea for example?

Not by the present day; Korea had a head start, and was a major shipbuilder by 1980. Iran would probably be developing in that market, and on a par with Vietnam or the Philippines. What I can see is Iran leveraging its 'Western' status amd relatively advanced engineering and electronics industries to break in to the more complex markets. In those areas they might compete with South Korea and Japan, but they'd be lagging behind in simpler ships.

That depends on if the New Union Treaty actually still happens.

True, but I think the drivers for Soviet collapse were largely internal. Some form of reform is possible, but what comes out of it won't be a Soviet Union in the sense that we know it.

So around now in TTL would they be looking at a update on the TTL Challenger?

Maybe; it depends on how the world is looking. If it's continued in the vein of OTL's 1990s, and rapidly deployable medium-weight armour is fashionable, then a new/updated MBT won't be in favour, though some in the Army will be pushing for it anyway. The press will probably deride them as dinosaurs.
On the other hand, the situation in the Middle East may keep armoured warfare in the ascendant. In that case, a new MBT is pretty much certain. Depending on what the former USSR is up to, they too might be cause for concern in Western Europe; that would certainly see a new MBT in the works.

How many RO factories were actually operational or viable and what did they make?

Not an expert on this field, but there were sixteen, including ROF Leeds; they make/made small arms, ammunition, explosives, and I believe some larger ordnance including tank guns. Three have closed since privatisation.

Were there any other nations which were interested in the Tornado apart from the countries which developed the plane and Saudi Arabia?
It turns out there was quite a bit of interest, that I didn't know about. Canada. Spain and Greece all liked the Tornado, but needed a true multi-role aircraft so bought other types instead. Interestingly, the original NATO F-104 replacement studies had included Canada, Belgium and the Netherlands, so with an early enough PoD it's easy enough to see all three getting the type.
The Middle East was fairly active for Tornado. Turkey placed an order for 40 in 1984, but the export credit wasn't approved and the deal fell through. Iraq was actually very interested, having evaluated the type in 1982 and anticiapated an order of 100 aircraft; the Iran-Iraq war put paid to that. Jordan and Oman were both interested, Oman actually placing an order, but only for small numbers.
In the Far East, South Korea had a requirement for 50, 40 of which to be a specialist SEAD type, and Malaysia actually ordered 12 including 4 SEAD versions - this was later recast as an order for Hawks. The SEAD type in question was to be a GR.1 with Marconi electronics, as opposed to the German ECR version. Japan considered the Tornado for the requirement that led to the F-2, and it was quite well regarded by JASDF officers.
Gazing into the crystal ball, with a 'late' PoD I would expect the Iraqi order to go through, whilst the Jordanian interest is converted into F-15s (they were to have been supplied through Saudi Arabia). The Iraqi interest is particularly significant as it's similar in size to the OTL Saudi order, and clearly threatens both Iran and Israel. This probably sees Iran looking for a long-range strike aircraft of its' own, I like the F-111 but the F-15E is more likely.

Would an alternative to Bae be a bigger focus on Airbus and Regional Jets?

This wouldn't be a bad idea, whether or not the military aviation side is doing well. There again, it would've been in OTL, and BAe didn't really do very well.

I see then you see no prospect in Iran buyinf British jets.

It was Iranian policy under Mohammed Reza Shah to equip the IIAF with American aircraft and train it along USAF lines. Once he dies, this stance may weaken, but it was taken for sound military reasons and I can see a strong preference for US fast jets at least. British, or other nations, aircraft would only really get a look-in if they offered something that the Americans couldn't match.

Iran still kept the order until the Revolution, the only nation apart from Britain and France to do so.

Very interesting...

Which Civil War in Yemen (there have been several) and how close were they to Oman until 1979, I say this because both of them can control access to the Gulf.

I'm thinking of Iranian support to the North in 1994. This would offset the Wahhabi support, weakening their influence in Yemen and increasing that of Iran, probably removing the grievances behind the current Houthi (Shia) insurgency. On the other hand, it would increase discontent amongst the Wahhabi community. I think this is the community responsible for OTL's al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, but trying to make sense of who is behind which of Yemen's several ongoing insurgencies is giving me a headache.

Iraq would likely be another flashpoint for Iran as well which the Saudis would not be happy anout.

Only if Saddam, or his successors, are foolish enough to invade Iraq. Admittedly that can't be ruled out, especially considering his probable successors. The way I see it is that Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia are three contenders for control of the Persian Gulf. At first, they're fairly even, and jockeying for position amongst them will see two of them aligning against the third. As Iran gains in power and influence, the Iraq-Saudi Arabia axis will have its' superiority eroded away until Iran eventually overtakes even the combination.
This, together with potentially closer Saudi-Pakistani relations and the Soviet Union to their north, will make Iran feel encircled. They've got their outlets through the Arabian Sea, though that threatened by the Muslim nations, and through Turkey. Expect to see the Turkish border crossings improved, and Iran prepared to close the Persian Gulf (they can use Arabian Sea ports) and contest control of the Arabian Sea.

Which the Americans would benefit from unless relations with them were strained over US-Iranian relations. Likewise would they be keen on a higher oil price than on OTL because if it does follow OTL prices then yes their economy will suffer badly.

Which would of course sour American-Saudi relations. Especially if the Iraqi-Saudi axis is able to dominate OPEC.

If Iran develops the bomb then I would expect the Saudis to be even more keen on the Pakistan nuclear programe. Which I would agree would cause a seperate Cold War between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Thinking about this, Iran is militarily superior. It doesn't need nuclear weapons. Of the three major Gulf powers, Saudi Arabia is weakest - they don't have the demographics or the economy to oppose Iran. If they're feeling threatened, nuclear weapons give them a deterrent against Iranian attack. Iraq of course had a nuclear progam in OTL, which worried both the Iranians and the Israelis.
On OTL's timescales, Iraq would probably get nuclear weapons in 1993 and Saudi Arabia (extrapolating from the Pakistani program) in 1998. No Iran-Iraq war probably moves the Iraqi program forward a few years. The Pakistani/Saudi program apparently had a deliverable weapon by 1987, hough the first test wasn't until 1998 in response to Indian tests.
With Saudi Arabia running scared of Iran, and them taking a more open involvement in the programme, that capability may be tested much earlier. The Iraqi program will be advanced by a few years, especially with them increasingly aligned to Saudi Arabia and possibly sharing knowledge. Iranian nuclear weapons will probably be a response to the Arab nations.
I'd expect all three nations to have nuclear weapons by the start of the 1990s. Syria won't be far behind, and the Non-Proliferation Treaty will probably start falling apart at this point. Israel may be playing whack-a-mole with nuclear weapons facilities in the Arab states.

Of course the close Israeli-Iranian relationship would continue to endure for quite some some.
Who will the Shia's of Lebanon turn to if Iran does not back them or decides to do other actions to avoid alenating Israel? (Syria perhaps?) Would this also mean there is no close Syrian-Iranian relationship either?

Israel and Syria are both natural allies of Iran, with similar strategic interests and few areas of conflict. I'd envisage Israel pushing ballistic missile defence harder than OTL, and probably sharing the fruits of that work with Iran. Possibly also the Jericho missile, and even space launch capabilities. The Israelis will still want sovereign capability, but Iran has better geography.
Lebanon will play out totally differently. With an early enough PoD, Iran supports the Lebanese Armed Forces in the Lebanese Civil War, possibly intervening directly to aid in keeping the peace. This avoids the Israeli invasion of 1982 altogether, no Hezbollah, no tying up of Lebanon and the West Bank. The Palestinians get expelled from their third country, goodness only knows who'll have them after they've brought strife to Israel, Jordan and Lebanon. The Syrian occupation of Lebanon is replaced by an Iranian one.
If later, they at least don't support the Shia community, which means a much weaker, maybe non-existent, Hezbollah. Probably still an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon, but with Iran providing support. Lebanon is still unstable, but less threatening to Israel.

Perhaps the Iranians would want a naval base in Aden to deal with this threat.

Very probably; this would fit quite nicely with Iran's vision of succeeding the United Kingdom as the major power in the region too. If Iran has supported the Yemenis in their civil war, it should be easy to obtain rights for a naval base and an air base, possibly both at Aden.

Just without the obvious censorship

The film industry is going to be doing much better than it already is OTL?

It would appeal to me to make one of the first Iranian films to go big in the rest of the world to be an adaptation of Lord of Light.

 

[ramones1986]

It would appeal to me to make one of the first Iranian films to go big in the rest of the world to be an adaptation of Lord of Light.

Well, I personally want to see adaptations of both Persian-language literary classics like Shahnameh and biographies of personalities like Cyrus the Great for both film and television.

 

[RLBH]

Well, I personally want to see adaptations of both Persian-language literary classics like Shahnameh and biographies of personalities like Cyrus the Great for both film and television.

Oh, no doubt such productions would make far more sense. In fact, I'd love to see the Achmaenids done as a proper, big-budget historical production.

My suggestion was more humorous; the script for a Lord of Light adaptation was bought by the CIA and used as a cover story for the 'Canadian Caper' rescue of diplomatic personnel after the Islamic Revolution.

 

[Welshroyalhistory]

His son seems to be more liberal-minded (actually so was Mohammed Reza Shah, but he had some serious father issues), so would probably build upon his father's work. Interestingly though, he's still alive (only born in 1960) and still hopes to regain his father's crown. Crucially, if the Shah died on schedule, his son wouldn't come of age for another eighteen months or so, so there would be a regency. There's something you don't often say in the modern world.

Apparently his daughter from his first marriage, HIH Shahnaz Pahlavi, was the intended regent; her political views might inform the likely line of such a regency. Unfortunately I can't find anything on the subject.

The Crown Prince is an impressive figure.

Part of the man he is today is no doubt as a result of the exile from Iran, he probably would not have been able to study in the United States, nor marry the woman he did (Crown Princess Yasmine is an American of Iranian descent), had he not been exiled. These things have obviously shaped him greatly.

His mother's influence would have remained strong, the Empress Farah is a remarkably interesting woman. Her life would have been remarkably different, she has lost two children to suicide. They seemed to struggle with a life in exile, in the way that the Crown Prince has not. This could obviously be attributed to the fact that the Crown Prince married and had a family of his own, his siblings did not, although his late brother did have an illegitimate daughter, born after his death, the daughter is recoignised by the Crown Prince as an Iranian princess and member of the Imperial Family.

If anyone is interested in seeing the former Iranian Imperial Family in close up, then Nahid Persson Sarvestani's documentary film from 2009 about the Empress "The Queen and I," is an excellent start. It is available on youtube. The Empress, her son Crown Prince Reza and daughter-in-law Crown Princess Yasmine are featured.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9gIT69_vFM

Crown Prince Reza has only produced daughters, his late brother had an illegitimate daughter. The headship of the family will pass to an extended member of the Pahlavi family in due course.

 

[British Republic]

You mean she left Iran or she left for Israel in 1970.

Yes that is what I meant.