Iran without the revolution

[British Republic]

That would make a good TL or RP game.

Do you want to launch it?

 

[British Republic]

His son seems to be more liberal-minded (actually so was Mohammed Reza Shah, but he had some serious father issues), so would probably build upon his father's work. Interestingly though, he's still alive (only born in 1960) and still hopes to regain his father's crown. Crucially, if the Shah died on schedule, his son wouldn't come of age for another eighteen months or so, so there would be a regency. There's something you don't often say in the modern world.

Apparently his daughter from his first marriage, HIH Shahnaz Pahlavi, was the intended regent; her political views might inform the likely line of such a regency. Unfortunately I can't find anything on the subject.

Why not Queen Farah? Besides such Regency would he short lived...

There is some relevant information on the Imperial Iranian military and likely economic trends here.

Interesting information you have got there, I might have a good look at it myself later.

 

[Historyman 14]

Do you want to launch it?

I don't have the skills, but if someone help me with a RP game.

 

[British Republic]

I don't have the skills, but if someone help me with a RP game.

What help do you need?

 

[RLBH]

Why not Queen Farah? Besides such Regency would he short lived...

Seems I've misremembered, it was indeed the Shahbanu who was named as regent. The regency might be short, but the regent's policies would influence the course of the nation. Especially if they were such as to bring about a revolution or coup of some description.

One prospect that I'd forgotten to mention was the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. If Iran isn't distracted by internal matters, this will greatly disquiet them - especially as Afghanistan was, and is, part of the greater Iranosphere. It would be particularly courageous of the Shah, old or new, to openly intervene against the Soviets, but I can see covert support to the Mujahideen. The presence of Iran as a US-backed power would deemphasise Pakistan, which would have effects as profound for Islamic fundamentalism as the lack of a Gulf War. The Mujahideen is likely to have more of a pan-Iranian, Shiite flavour to it, and probably a more stable Afghanistan in the 1990s and 2000s, though that is a very low bar indeed.

I keep meaning to do a TL on a non-revolutionary Iran, but the more I read up on the subject the more I realise how little I know.

 

[Historyman 14]

What help do you need?

All of it. I do not have the skills of FPSlover and the like.

 

[British Republic]

Seems I've misremembered, it was indeed the Shahbanu who was named as regent. The regency might be short, but the regent's policies would influence the course of the nation. Especially if they were such as to bring about a revolution or coup of some description.

Did she even want to be a Regent, perhaps they should avoid even having one?

One prospect that I'd forgotten to mention was the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. If Iran isn't distracted by internal matters, this will greatly disquiet them - especially as Afghanistan was, and is, part of the greater Iranosphere. It would be particularly courageous of the Shah, old or new, to openly intervene against the Soviets, but I can see covert support to the Mujahideen. The presence of Iran as a US-backed power would deemphasise Pakistan, which would have effects as profound for Islamic fundamentalism as the lack of a Gulf War. The Mujahideen is likely to have more of a pan-Iranian, Shiite flavour to it, and probably a more stable Afghanistan in the 1990s and 2000s, though that is a very low bar indeed.

I doubt Iran would back the Pashtun considering the fact they are Shia, perhaps most of those fighting against the Russians are either from Iran or even the local Hazara population. No Iran-Iraq war (unless Saddam was really stupid or Uday somehow became leader and remained there) means either no Gulf War or a different one. Which since it would be Iran that fights the Russians rather than the Saudis, AQ might not be formed.

Speaking of which, how does a Imperial Iran affect American relations with Saudi Arabia?

 

[British Republic]

All of it. I do not have the skills of FPSlover and the like.

What is it, I say this because while I have a involvement in Shared World, it sadly as yet does not reach RPs.

 

[RLBH]

I doubt Iran would back the Pashtun considering the fact they are Shia, perhaps most of those fighting against the Russians are either from Iran or even the local Hazara population.

There was a pretty sizable Shia Muhjahideen movement in OTL; I'd imagine Iran is more active in supporting it, and promotes pan-Iranism amongst the non-Shia community. And probably some Iranian irregular troops in small quantities.

If pan-Iranism works, I can even see it leaking into parts of Soviet Central Asia, bringing places like Tajikistan into the Iranian sphere of influence after the Soviet collapse.

Speaking of which, how does a Imperial Iran affect American relations with Saudi Arabia?

They'll be very different, simply because Saudi Arabia isn't the only major oil exporting nation that gets along with the US. Given the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the US will have to appear even-handed; simple geography and economics means that they'll favour the Iranians, yet the Saudis are a bigger oil supplier. The Saudi F-15 order that was cancelled after OTL's Islamic Revolution will certainly go ahead, but eventually the Saudis will get their noses out of joint over something or other. Probably Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will get closer, with neither of them as close to the US as in OTL.

 

[British Republic]

There was a pretty sizable Shia Muhjahideen movement in OTL; I'd imagine Iran is more active in supporting it, and promotes pan-Iranism amongst the non-Shia community. And probably some Iranian irregular troops in small quantities.

If pan-Iranism works, I can even see it leaking into parts of Soviet Central Asia, bringing places like Tajikistan into the Iranian sphere of influence after the Soviet collapse.

Don't forget Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan (all with large oil and gas reserves) as well as the Uzbek, Tajik, Turk parts of Afghanistan. Maybe Iraq could be "dealt with" or even partitioned (with the Shia and Kurd areas linked to Iran). Funny enough I am working on a FH timeline which is heading in that direction, although with a Shia Islamist Iran.

Would America back this, considering their Pre-1979 relations and of course their keenness of weakening Russia, I think they would.

They'll be very different, simply because Saudi Arabia isn't the only major oil exporting nation that gets along with the US. Given the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the US will have to appear even-handed; simple geography and economics means that they'll favour the Iranians, yet the Saudis are a bigger oil supplier.

So they will try and get on with both of them even though both of them have issues with each other. If Iran expands into Central Asia and maybe Iraq, perhaps the "oil balance" would change in favour of Iran.

The Saudi F-15 order that was cancelled after OTL's Islamic Revolution will certainly go ahead, but eventually the Saudis will get their noses out of joint over something or other.

If that happens it would be good news for American Defence Companies since they will still have a large market in Iran and a bigger one in Saudi Arabia than OTL. In contrast for the UK Defence Industry it is bad news, this is because with the F-15 deal BAE will not sell the Saudis Tornados and thus it would be in a worse state than OTL.

Probably Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will get closer, with neither of them as close to the US as in OTL.

Could America move towards a better relationship with India.

 

[RLBH]

Don't forget Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan (all with large oil and gas reserves) as well as the Uzbek, Tajik, Turk parts of Afghanistan. Maybe Iraq could be "dealt with" or even partitioned (with the Shia and Kurd areas linked to Iran). Funny enough I am working on a FH timeline which is heading in that direction, although with a Shia Islamist Iran.

Would America back this, considering their Pre-1979 relations and of course their keenness of weakening Russia, I think they would.

I don't think that outright expansion is likely, that would play very badly. But I can see a decent chunk of Soviet Central Asia being economically and politically tied to Iran. This would weaken Russia, as you note, and probably strengthen central Asia by giving it routes to market other than through Russia. I'd imagine that a major railway/pipeline system gets pushed up the Silk Road from Teheran.

If that happens it would be good news for American Defence Companies since they will still have a large market in Iran and a bigger one in Saudi Arabia than OTL. In contrast for the UK Defence Industry it is bad news, this is because with the F-15 deal BAE will not sell the Saudis Tornados and thus it would be in a worse state than OTL.

Probably bad for the British aviation industry, but good for the armoured vehicles industry - Iran had an order for 1,350 Shir tanks outstanding at the time of the Islamic Revolution, and it's possible that other equipment would follow; we were very generous to the Iranians with Shir 2, which is basically Challenger 1. Now ironically, the Shir 2 getting delivered may mean no Challenger 1 for the British Army, so that the British replacement for Chieftain is a hybrid between Challenger 1 and Challenger 2, and enters service later. On the other hand, I can see the Iranians buying Warrior; they planned to buy 800 BMP-1s, but that vehicle was a bit rubbish by Western standards.

British warships would probably be attractive for the Iranian navy, though that's not guaranteed; they were intending to get eight heavily modified Kortenaer class frigates and six Type 209 submarines built in German shipyards. The oft-quoted Iranian wish to buy three Invincible class aircraft carriers and their air wings from Britain was a pipe dream, and they'd recognised that well before the Revolution.


Personally, I'd expect to see German trucks being built in the country, given serious modernisation. The Shah was a shareholder in Mercedes Benz, and the G-Wagen was designed partially at his suggestion - I think it's very possible that domestically-produced Mercedes will become the vehicle of choice among Iran's growing middle class, and Mercedes trucks common sights on Iranian roads.

Could America move towards a better relationship with India.

I think it's likely, American relations with India have been tempered by the need to remain close to Pakistan in the War on Terror.

 

[British Republic]

I don't think that outright expansion is likely, that would play very badly. But I can see a decent chunk of Soviet Central Asia being economically and politically tied to Iran.

That is what I was thinking depending on support for annexation itself.

This would weaken Russia, as you note, and probably strengthen central Asia by giving it routes to market other than through Russia. I'd imagine that a major railway/pipeline system gets pushed up the Silk Road from Teheran.

How would it affect Russia? Certainly it would make dealing with them defense wise easier for NATO as well as Afghanistan if it is needed.

Probably bad for the British aviation industry, but good for the armoured vehicles industry - Iran had an order for 1,350 Shir tanks outstanding at the time of the Islamic Revolution, and it's possible that other equipment would follow; we were very generous to the Iranians with Shir 2, which is basically Challenger 1.

Now ironically, the Shir 2 getting delivered may mean no Challenger 1 for the British Army, so that the British replacement for Chieftain is a hybrid between Challenger 1 and Challenger 2, and enters service later. On the other hand, I can see the Iranians buying Warrior; they planned to buy 800 BMP-1s, but that vehicle was a bit rubbish by Western standards.

Would the British Army simply buy the Shir 2 instead and the Challenger 2?

Would this mean then that BAE would likely switch towards buying ordinance companies earlier than they did in OTL?

British warships would probably be attractive for the Iranian navy, though that's not guaranteed; they were intending to get eight heavily modified Kortenaer class frigates and six Type 209 submarines built in German shipyards. The oft-quoted Iranian wish to buy three Invincible class aircraft carriers and their air wings from Britain was a pipe dream, and they'd recognised that well before the Revolution.

Would they need any aircraft carriers at all?

Personally, I'd expect to see German trucks being built in the country, given serious modernisation. The Shah was a shareholder in Mercedes Benz, and the G-Wagen was designed partially at his suggestion - I think it's very possible that domestically-produced Mercedes will become the vehicle of choice among Iran's growing middle class, and Mercedes trucks common sights on Iranian roads.

I would agree, although will they be wholly owned or JV with local investors?

I think it's likely, American relations with India have been tempered by the need to remain close to Pakistan in the War on Terror.

India would gain a boost from increased trade with Iran as well (they are still trading with them in OTL despite sanctions).

 

[RLBH]

How would it affect Russia? Certainly it would make dealing with them defense wise easier for NATO as well as Afghanistan if it is needed.

Currently, the only routes that Central Asia has to market for its' resources and products is through Russia's sphere of influence. This Iranian influence will mean that Russia can't just lord it over Central Asia. Russian influence on Eastern Europe will also be slightly reduced since there's less gas in their pipelines. The Turks won't relax any, though, with Iran for a neighbour. Iran and Russia will probably clash over Caucasia at some point, though neither places enough importance over it to get into a full-blown war; the danger point is probably the early 1990s when Russia hasn't declined too much and the former USSR is still unstable, but Iran hasn't grown to dominate the region too much.

Would the British Army simply buy the Shir 2 instead and the Challenger 2?

Shir 2 was less capable than Challenger 1; when Iran cancelled the order, the loss of work threatened to close the British tank factories, so the British Army took over the vehicles and upgraded them. Challenger 2 then came along to satisfy the requirement for the tank they actually wanted. TTL, they'll not have to buy Challenger 1, so the tank they really want will come along first - won't be quite as spiffy as Challenger 2, but better than Challenger 1. Chieftain will get a few more upgrades to help tide it over.

Would this mean then that BAE would likely switch towards buying ordinance companies earlier than they did in OTL?

Not likely; in fact, the land vehicles business didn't come into BAE Systems until 2004. The history is rather convoluted, but essentially I'd expect to see Alvis and Vickers (if they don't merge) doing much better, whilst British Aerospace is doing somewhat worse. The British Aerospace/Marconi Electronic Systems merger will come along much as in OTL, I expect, but Marconi will be more dominant. The British assumption that defence = aviation is probably going to be weaker - the big Iranian contract will probably help Britain win orders for other armoured vehicles.

Would they need any aircraft carriers at all?

The Shah had visions of becoming an Indian Ocean power, which they'd be needed for. Realistically, Iran is always going to be a land power, and a powerful navy is a luxury item for them.

I would agree, although will they be wholly owned or JV with local investors?

If I were the Shah, I'd push for joint ventures in everything possible. How much of that is agreed to by the foreign company is another matter. Commoditised items, like trucks or entry-level cars, I think JVs would be agreed quite readily. Luxury items, less so. I'd expect licence production of military equipment to be pushed for quite hard, though.

 

[British Republic]

Currently, the only routes that Central Asia has to market for its' resources and products is through Russia's sphere of influence. This Iranian influence will mean that Russia can't just lord it over Central Asia. Russian influence on Eastern Europe will also be slightly reduced since there's less gas in their pipelines. The Turks won't relax any, though, with Iran for a neighbour. Iran and Russia will probably clash over Caucasia at some point, though neither places enough importance over it to get into a full-blown war; the danger point is probably the early 1990s when Russia hasn't declined too much and the former USSR is still unstable, but Iran hasn't grown to dominate the region too much.

So you are thinking of rail lines to the Southern Iranian Ports for example as well as pipelines?

It also depends on how the USSR meets its end as well, do you see that changing compared to OTL?

Shir 2 was less capable than Challenger 1; when Iran cancelled the order, the loss of work threatened to close the British tank factories, so the British Army took over the vehicles and upgraded them. Challenger 2 then came along to satisfy the requirement for the tank they actually wanted. TTL, they'll not have to buy Challenger 1, so the tank they really want will come along first - won't be quite as spiffy as Challenger 2, but better than Challenger 1. Chieftain will get a few more upgrades to help tide it over.

Right I see, so the ITTL Challenger 2 would end up as a new design altogether by the Early 2000s maybe?

Not likely; in fact, the land vehicles business didn't come into BAE Systems until 2004. The history is rather convoluted, but essentially I'd expect to see Alvis and Vickers (if they don't merge) doing much better, whilst British Aerospace is doing somewhat worse. The British Aerospace/Marconi Electronic Systems merger will come along much as in OTL, I expect, but Marconi will be more dominant. The British assumption that defence = aviation is probably going to be weaker - the big Iranian contract will probably help Britain win orders for other armoured vehicles.

BAE actually went into land vehicles when they bought Royal Ordnance Factories in 1984, this funny enough excluded ROF Leeds which made the tank in question which went to Vickers.

Likewise if such a deal goes ahead it could be Vickers that buys Alvis and could in itself remain independent for longer.

This also means that the Eurofighter project would be put into question since BAE would have less interest in aviation. In fact a BAE-Marconi would likely consider aviation a lesser priority and that could mean a earlier pullout of Airbus.

On the other hand there might still be a chance Iran still gets the Concordes it ordered...

The Shah had visions of becoming an Indian Ocean power, which they'd be needed for. Realistically, Iran is always going to be a land power, and a powerful navy is a luxury item for them.

I would definitely agree there, all they really have is the Gulf.

If I were the Shah, I'd push for joint ventures in everything possible. How much of that is agreed to by the foreign company is another matter. Commoditised items, like trucks or entry-level cars, I think JVs would be agreed quite readily. Luxury items, less so. I'd expect licence production of military equipment to be pushed for quite hard, though.

Daimler-Benz has done JV's before in India and I think still in Egypt in OTL, perhaps an additional investment company would do the trick and as you say it would help the industrial sector in Iran.

 

[RLBH]

So you are thinking of rail lines to the Southern Iranian Ports for example as well as pipelines?

Absolutely, such projects are happening slowly in OTL, a economically booming Iran will make them happen more quickly. One of the Iranian ports, probably Bandar Abbas, will become a major container port for the Middle East and Central Asia. Incidentally, Iranian shipbuilding will take off. The Gulf states in OTL are getting in to ship repair since it makes sense to work on a tanker near one of its regular ports, Iran will get there first as it industrialises and then get into building ships.

It also depends on how the USSR meets its end as well, do you see that changing compared to OTL?

I don't see any reason why the factors at work should change, though of course butterflies will flap their wings and it won't happen exactly the same as in OTL.

Right I see, so the ITTL Challenger 2 would end up as a new design altogether by the Early 2000s maybe?

TTL's "Challenger" would probably come along between 1989-1992, and would be a less sophisticated version of OTL's Challenger 2. Unless of course the British Army buys the Leopard 2, Abrams, or Vickers Mark 7 - though I think they'd prefer a domestic solution.

BAE actually went into land vehicles when they bought Royal Ordnance Factories in 1984, this funny enough excluded ROF Leeds which made the tank in question which went to Vickers.
Likewise if such a deal goes ahead it could be Vickers that buys Alvis and could in itself remain independent for longer.

The Royal Ordnance Factories which British Aerospace - not BAE Systems, the distinction is important - bought were the ones that built small arms and ammunition, but not armoured vehicles. Armoured vehicles, as you say, were ROF Leeds, VSEL, Alvis and GKN, which all wound up in BAE Systems after a series of mergers.
I can easily imagine that series of mergers developing differently, especially with a stronger British armoured vehicle industry. And a different British government might very well have sold off the Royal Ordnance Factories individually, or not at all, which would give a very different British defence industry.

This also means that the Eurofighter project would be put into question since BAE would have less interest in aviation. In fact a BAE-Marconi would likely consider aviation a lesser priority and that could mean a earlier pullout of Airbus.

British Aerospace was always going to be interested in aviation, and the British government isn't going to let Eurofighter slip. Unless of course it orders P.1216 instead, but that would be very risky. The British Aerospace/Marconi Electronic Systems merger happened in OTL, creating BAE Systems; losing the Saudi fast jet contracts isn't going to weaken the aviation side enough to wipe it out altogether. It may actually mean that the British aviation industry pushes harder for exports, since it can't just rely on selling to Saudi Arabia.
Now, if the Iranians *were* to buy British aircraft carriers and the aircraft to fly from them, that would be a shot in the arm for both British shipbuilding and the aviation industry... not very likely, though.

On the other hand there might still be a chance Iran still gets the Concordes it ordered...

Unlikely, unless the PoD is quite early; Concorde production was virtually finished before the Revolution. Though if the lines were still open, I'm sure that the Iranians would buy them for prestige purposes.

I would definitely agree there, all they really have is the Gulf.

The caveat here is that they'll still need to be able to project power into the Arabian Sea, hence the frigates and destroyers, and will probably want an amphibious capability. A blue water fleet is a prestige thing, and I can see them going for it.
Iran was actually quite interventionist around the Arabian Peninsula - the Shah wanted Iran to be a world power - providing support to Oman in the Dhofar Rebellion. I can see them intervening in Yemen's Civil War to stabilise the area and support the Shia community there. This will annoy the Saudis, since they backed the other side. There's a potential flashpoint for a major war in the Middle East over this, especially if the Iranians intervene in the Shia rising in Bahrain around the same time. Saudi Arabia will probably go on an even bigger armaments spree than OTL, which won't do their economy any good at all. With an extreme form of Islam, lots of weapons, and a shaky economy, it's very possible that the world views Saudi Arabia as a major security threat. Close ties with Pakistan - they may well cash in on their investment in the Pakistani nuclear program, which is just scary - will strengthen that view.
That means Israel will be even more worried than OTL about the Arab states, though at least Iran will probably stabilise Lebanon and the Hezbollah threat won't exist in anything like the same way. Iranian intervention in Somalia is also possible. They certainly won't put up with any piracy in the region, and will respond robustly to the development of piracy.

Daimler-Benz has done JV's before in India and I think still in Egypt in OTL, perhaps an additional investment company would do the trick and as you say it would help the industrial sector in Iran.

A dead cert, then, given the Shah as a major shareholder and the company being amenable to JVs. Probably a few other JVs with Western companies too, as well as Iranian subsidiaries of Western companies and ultimately wholly Iranian businesses. By the present day, Iran could potentially have an economy comparable to Western European countries and in a totally different league to the other Gulf states.

 

[Delta Force]

On the other hand there might still be a chance Iran still gets the Concordes it ordered...

I came up with a business plan of sorts for how Iran Air might have been able to utilize the Concorde.

A dead cert, then, given the Shah as a major shareholder and the company being amenable to JVs. Probably a few other JVs with Western companies too, as well as Iranian subsidiaries of Western companies and ultimately wholly Iranian businesses. By the present day, Iran could potentially have an economy comparable to Western European countries and in a totally different league to the other Gulf states.

Imperial Iran would likely have an economy and level of development akin to the Republic of Korea had it maintained its course, but with more natural resources and a larger population.

Among other things, Imperial Iran would likely be a major user of commercial nuclear energy. The Shah once famously remarked that "petroleum is a noble material, far too valuable to burn". He wanted to reduce Iranian reliance on petroleum for electricity and transportation in order to maximize exports and allow for a petrochemical industry. As a rapidly industrializing nation with a growing need for energy and a desire to save petroleum, Iran could provide a market for nuclear technologies in the 1980s. That's potentially huge for American firms, as after 1977 there were no new domestic orders.

Also, Imperial Iran might acquire domestic nuclear reprocessing capabilities in the 1980s or 1990s. The reprocessing facility in France that Iran helped partially fund was partially a confidence building measure to show that Iran could be trusted with such technologies. President Carter was opposed to nuclear reprocessing due to proliferation concerns. If Reagan is elected in 1980, the United States might become comfortable enough to give diplomatic permission for a nuclear reprocessing facility in Iran. The Reagan Administration tried to promote nuclear power but had little success. Major Iranian orders in the early to mid-1980s would significantly help the American nuclear industry and the goals of the Reagan Administration.

 

[RLBH]

Among other things, Imperial Iran would likely be a major user of commercial nuclear energy. The Shah once famously remarked that "petroleum is a noble material, far too valuable to burn". He wanted to reduce Iranian reliance on petroleum for electricity and transportation in order to maximize exports and allow for a petrochemical industry. As a rapidly industrializing nation with a growing need for energy and a desire to save petroleum, Iran could provide a market for nuclear technologies in the 1980s. That's potentially huge for American firms, as after 1977 there were no new domestic orders.

I believe that the goal was something like 20,000 MW of nuclear power, with the reactors to be supplied by American, French and German firms. That, and nuclear reprocessing, I think are pretty much inevitable. I also think that Iran would seek a nuclear capability, though it may remain 'virtual'. Something like the French model where there's no distinction between the civil and the military nuclear programs seems probable.

 

[British Republic]

I came up with a business plan of sorts for how Iran Air might have been able to utilize the Concorde.

It seems you have an idea on Iran Air using Concorde Bs which would fix the noise issues and give enough range for pretty much any city in Europe and Asia. What Destinations could be served do you think? I would suggest mainly cities to Europe and Tokyo for a start.

Speaking of which Tehran is in a very good position for flights as Emirates and the other Gulf Airlines is (maybe more so) for Asia-Africa, West/South Asia-Americas, Europe-Asia-Oceania and Europe-East Africa flights.

When you add the much larger local market which by the end of the 20th century can afford such flights and the earlier set up them the Gulf Airlines it would mean Iran Air would one of the largest airlines in the world if not the largest in some measurements with 500-600 planes at least an a large section of them rather big ones.

They would be very keen on the 747-400 as soon as Boeing can make it and a ATL 777 like plane as well to replace the 747SPs. They would also be keen on bigger and longer range planes of both versions.

If you think Emirates and Watar Airways are "major" rivals to airlines across the world then Iran Air would be a even bigger airline. In fact many other airlines in the region would likely go out of business such as Malsysia, Gulf Air and Air India unless they step up their game, which in the case of India might not happen like in OTL. It would also help Israelis bypass the Arab States in relation to air travel in a way Turkish Airlines does in OTL.

Actually after suggesting it it shows how much potental Iran lost when the Islamists came to power .

Among other things, Imperial Iran would likely be a major user of commercial nuclear energy. The Shah once famously remarked that "petroleum is a noble material, far too valuable to burn". He wanted to reduce Iranian reliance on petroleum for electricity and transportation in order to maximize exports and allow for a petrochemical industry. As a rapidly industrializing nation with a growing need for energy and a desire to save petroleum, Iran could provide a market for nuclear technologies in the 1980s. That's potentially huge for American firms, as after 1977 there were no new domestic orders.

Also, Imperial Iran might acquire domestic nuclear reprocessing capabilities in the 1980s or 1990s. The reprocessing facility in France that Iran helped partially fund was partially a confidence building measure to show that Iran could be trusted with such technologies. President Carter was opposed to nuclear reprocessing due to proliferation concerns. If Reagan is elected in 1980, the United States might become comfortable enough to give diplomatic permission for a nuclear reprocessing facility in Iran. The Reagan Administration tried to promote nuclear power but had little success. Major Iranian orders in the early to mid-1980s would significantly help the American nuclear industry and the goals of the Reagan Administration.

Iran would be very keen on nuclear technology both for civilian use and milltary use, which would mean by the late 2000s ITTL they would be one of the leading nations in nuclear technology. I would also agree that eventually the Americans would accept it, in fact they might even welcome it.

 

[British Republic]

Absolutely, such projects are happening slowly in OTL, a economically booming Iran will make them happen more quickly. One of the Iranian ports, probably Bandar Abbas, will become a major container port for the Middle East and Central Asia.

Definately.

Incidentally, Iranian shipbuilding will take off. The Gulf states in OTL are getting in to ship repair since it makes sense to work on a tanker near one of its regular ports, Iran will get there first as it industrialises and then get into building ships.

Could Ira become as major a shipbuilder as Korea for example?

I don't see any reason why the factors at work should change, though of course butterflies will flap their wings and it won't happen exactly the same as in OTL.

That depends on if the New Union Treaty actually still happens.

TTL's "Challenger" would probably come along between 1989-1992, and would be a less sophisticated version of OTL's Challenger 2. Unless of course the British Army buys the Leopard 2, Abrams, or Vickers Mark 7 - though I think they'd prefer a domestic solution.

So around now in TTL would they be looking at a update on the TTL Challenger?

The Royal Ordnance Factories which British Aerospace - not BAE Systems, the distinction is important - bought were the ones that built small arms and ammunition, but not armoured vehicles.

Armoured vehicles, as you say, were ROF Leeds, VSEL, Alvis and GKN, which all wound up in BAE Systems after a series of mergers.

Oh I see so they did not really go into the Armoured vehicles (although they had interests in armaments before and after merging with Marconi) until they bought Avis Vickers.

I can easily imagine that series of mergers developing differently, especially with a stronger British armoured vehicle industry. And a different British government might very well have sold off the Royal Ordnance Factories individually, or not at all, which would give a very different British defence industry.

How many RO factories were actually operational or viable and what did they make?

British Aerospace was always going to be interested in aviation, and the British government isn't going to let Eurofighter slip. Unless of course it orders P.1216 instead, but that would be very risky. The British Aerospace/Marconi Electronic Systems merger happened in OTL, creating BAE Systems; losing the Saudi fast jet contracts isn't going to weaken the aviation side enough to wipe it out altogether. It may actually mean that the British aviation industry pushes harder for exports, since it can't just rely on selling to Saudi Arabia.

Were there any other nations which were interested in the Tornado apart from the countries which developed the plane and Saudi Arabia?

Would an alternative to Bae be a bigger focus on Airbus and Regional Jets?

Now, if the Iranians *were* to buy British aircraft carriers and the aircraft to fly from them, that would be a shot in the arm for both British shipbuilding and the aviation industry... not very likely, though.

I see then you see no prospect in Iran buyinf British jets.

Unlikely, unless the PoD is quite early; Concorde production was virtually finished before the Revolution. Though if the lines were still open, I'm sure that the Iranians would buy them for prestige purposes.

Iran still kept the order until the Revolution, the only nation apart from Britain and France to do so.

The caveat here is that they'll still need to be able to project power into the Arabian Sea, hence the frigates and destroyers, and will probably want an amphibious capability. A blue water fleet is a prestige thing, and I can see them going for it.

Perhaps they would be doing a lot of the work of the US Navy in the Region?

Iran was actually quite interventionist around the Arabian Peninsula - the Shah wanted Iran to be a world power - providing support to Oman in the Dhofar Rebellion. I can see them intervening in Yemen's Civil War to stabilise the area and support the Shia community there.

Which Civil War in Yemen (there have been several) and how close were they to Oman until 1979, I say this because both of them can control access to the Gulf.

This will annoy the Saudis, since they backed the other side. There's a potential flashpoint for a major war in the Middle East over this, especially if the Iranians intervene in the Shia rising in Bahrain around the same time.

Iraq would likely be another flashpoint for Iran as well which the Saudis would not be happy anout.

Saudi Arabia will probably go on an even bigger armaments spree than OTL, which won't do their economy any good at all.

Which the Americans would benefit from unless relations with them were strained over US-Iranian relations. Likewise would they be keen on a higher oil price than on OTL because if it does follow OTL prices then yes their economy will suffer badly.

With an extreme form of Islam, lots of weapons, and a shaky economy, it's very possible that the world views Saudi Arabia as a major security threat. Close ties with Pakistan - they may well cash in on their investment in the Pakistani nuclear program, which is just scary - will strengthen that view.

If Iran develops the bomb then I would expect the Saudis to be even more keen on the Pakistan nuclear programe. Which I would agree would cause a seperate Cold War between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

That means Israel will be even more worried than OTL about the Arab states, though at least Iran will probably stabilise Lebanon and the Hezbollah threat won't exist in anything like the same way.

Of course the close Israeli-Iranian relationship would continue to endure for quite some some.

Who will the Shia's of Lebanon turn to if Iran does not back them or decides to do other actions to avoid alenating Israel? (Syria perhaps?) Would this also mean there is no close Syrian-Iranian relationship either?

Iranian intervention in Somalia is also possible. They certainly won't put up with any piracy in the region, and will respond robustly to the development of piracy.

Perhaps the Iranians would want a naval base in Aden to deal with this threat.

A dead cert, then, given the Shah as a major shareholder and the company being amenable to JVs. Probably a few other JVs with Western companies too, as well as Iranian subsidiaries of Western companies and ultimately wholly Iranian businesses. By the present day, Iran could potentially have an economy comparable to Western European countries and in a totally different league to the other Gulf states.

Iran by the looks of things ITTL would certainly be the leading industrial power in the region as well as the most powerful nation in the region and one which is closely linked to America.

 

[ramones1986]

More active participation in international contests like Miss Universe, Miss World and Miss Earth.

More diverse film and broadcasting industry, especially in producing television dramas; imagine a possible Israeli-Iranian co-production about Esther and the origin of Purim.

And, expect a series of concerts by Iranian-born singer Rita, as well as more frequent Persian-language album releases.