Iran Vs. Saudi Arabia

DaHound22

Banned
Relations between these two Muslim powers has not been good, but as of yet it has not resulted in any strait-up war between the two. My question? Could this happen? How severe would it be? POD would have to be after 1979, Iranian revolution and all. How could it happen?
 
They were almost there a few weeks ago. Before Saudi-Arabia ended their ties with Daesh, there was a de facto proxy war between them, with Iran backing the Iraqi Shia militias, and Saudi-Arabia Daesh. As the Shia militias continue to fight against Assad's opposition, they both still have their proxies involved.

Many people consider the Iraqi government as essentially being an Iranian client state, so the danger is still there. The Iranian army is probably much stronger than the Saudi one (which relies heavily on foreign aid and contractors). So without having guaranteed Western support, the Saudis probably won't gamble. The US would definitely support Saudi Arabia if Iran makes the first move. It would depend on who wins in November. If Trump wins and sticks to some of the things he said, he might allow the Saudis to enforce an own nuclear program.
 
Prior to 1991 the Saudi armed forces weren't a serious contender, they were more of a guard force for the holy cities and borders, hence Desert Sheild when Saddam invaded. After that I think things have changed, I think that what force they have now are serious fighting forces. In contrast the Iranians have been serious fighting forces since the Iraq war but are hampered by the sanctions and arms embargoes. Mmm, tough call.
 
They were almost there a few weeks ago. Before Saudi-Arabia ended their ties with Daesh, there was a de facto proxy war between them, with Iran backing the Iraqi Shia militias, and Saudi-Arabia Daesh. As the Shia militias continue to fight against Assad's opposition, they both still have their proxies involved.

Um, no. SA never backed ISIS; it backed (and still backs) mainline Sunni rebels, like Ahrar al-Sham, who fight against both ISIS and Assad.
 
Prior to 1991 the Saudi armed forces weren't a serious contender, they were more of a guard force for the holy cities and borders, hence Desert Sheild when Saddam invaded. After that I think things have changed, I think that what force they have now are serious fighting forces. In contrast the Iranians have been serious fighting forces since the Iraq war but are hampered by the sanctions and arms embargoes. Mmm, tough call.

The Saudi forces are deliberately kept pretty weak in order to prevent them from overthrowing the monarchy.
 
It's a cold war between the two, each considers itself the head of their respective branches of Islam and will stick to proxy wars, /unless/ the US pulls out in full from the region. Which is damn near improbable as the past half century has shown. Honestly the only way it might end is if either faction pulls a USSR and completely collapses under its own weight. (Oil running out or being replaced with something else being the most likely cause)
 
Well, from my understanding, at least, a direct war between the two wouldn't be very likely. Pretty much up until the US left Iraq, the Iranians had no way of even getting to the Saudi border, so, as has been said, the war would pretty much have been at sea. And neither the Iranian nor the Saudi navies are all that amazing. I dunno, maybe the Iranians decide shut down the Straits of Hormuz for some reason, resulting in the Gulf Arab states declaring war? In that case, I imagine that the US would have done the heavy lifting and would have cleared out the Iranians.

And even after Iranian influence started growing in Iraq, I doubt the Iranians would have been able to just march a full on invasion force through there to hit the Saudis. At most, you'd have proxy warfare between the two nations, which is more or less what's going on now.
 

DaHound22

Banned
What if some kind of coalition rose up? Some kind of anti-west coalition or a more severe Sunni-Shia fight could make the Saudis a target for this coalition as they are western backed and occupy the Muslim holy sights. What if Iran lead a coalition of say Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Afghanistan and a few others? Could the mount a serious invasion of Saudi Arabia, and could the Saudis fight back?
 
What if some kind of coalition rose up? Some kind of anti-west coalition or a more severe Sunni-Shia fight could make the Saudis a target for this coalition as they are western backed and occupy the Muslim holy sights. What if Iran lead a coalition of say Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Afghanistan and a few others? Could the mount a serious invasion of Saudi Arabia, and could the Saudis fight back?

I mean, if we're going with a post-1979 POD, I can't really see Egypt or Jordan suddenly aligning with Iran and invading Saudi Arabia, or Afghanistan even caring about Saudi Arabia. And depending on the dates, Iraq would either be led by Saddam who wasn't the best of friends with Iran, or it might have a bunch of US troops in it, or it might be the current hellhole(which isn't exactly in a position to invade anyone).
 
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