Iran under influence of Soviet Union.
- Thread starter Malanic
- Start date
Pangur
Donor
Extremely unlikely to say the least of it. Your first issue is/was the APOC (BP in a previous life) which supplied most of the oil for the RN at rock bottom prices. When the Iranians made a bid for democracy in 1953, over trowing the Shah the CIA and the British engineered a coup placing the Shah back on the throne They used the pretext of the Soviets having influence as an excuse where as they did it to protect Oil money,
With that real live example = no chance
Alternate History
Banned
First of all, make the Soviets disown any and all Azeri and Kurdish separatist movements after WWII and withdraw from Iran on time. That means their relations are preserved and any Irani leftist regime won't be inherently distrustful of the USSR. Secondly, have Mossadegh's reformist regime somehow survive the inevitable countercoup. That's not yet enough to pull the country into the Soviet sphere, since Mossadegh wasn't a big fan of the Soviets himself, but we can work from there.
The Tudeh Party of Iran can then try to pursue a "popular front" strategy, making a strategic alliance with Mossadegh and using the opportunity to establish more and more influence of its own in the country. Citing the threat of a monarchist uprising, they can demand more and more of a say in government while at the same time building a grassroots revolutionary base of its own covertly. When the Tudeh inevitably go far and break with Mossadegh, the Tudeh Party can make its move and try and take over, forcing the National Party out. This gives us... well, maybe not a satellite state, but someone who is friendly to the Soviet Union and dependent on them for survival. The British and Americans aren't going to let Iran get away easily, though, and they'll continue supporting the reactionaries - if it doesn't lead to another coup, then it may just lead to an early Afghanistan, writ large.
The Tudeh Party of Iran can then try to pursue a "popular front" strategy, making a strategic alliance with Mossadegh and using the opportunity to establish more and more influence of its own in the country. Citing the threat of a monarchist uprising, they can demand more and more of a say in government while at the same time building a grassroots revolutionary base of its own covertly. When the Tudeh inevitably go far and break with Mossadegh, the Tudeh Party can make its move and try and take over, forcing the National Party out. This gives us... well, maybe not a satellite state, but someone who is friendly to the Soviet Union and dependent on them for survival. The British and Americans aren't going to let Iran get away easily, though, and they'll continue supporting the reactionaries - if it doesn't lead to another coup, then it may just lead to an early Afghanistan, writ large.
Pangur
Donor
Thanks for your answers, i slowly building a scenario in which an even more polarized ME will be the background for a series of extremely heavy tank battles in the desert.
This is a bit of the wall but if that's what you after then find a way to keep India & Pakistan together and then kick of a war with Iran
Nah you just have to steal that alt-future history book I once read where Iran, Japan and Mexico formed an alliance that conquered all of central asia and the middle east with super tanks and only the US cavalry can stop them!
Delta Force
Banned
The Tudeh Party could come to power, perhaps in a democratic Iran or following the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
Easy -
Have a scenario where the Germans invade Turkey and the Levant, and to protect their own flanks the Soviets invade Iran (and probably reclaim the Kars-Ardahan region of Turkey).
The British, with this additional fighting front against the Germans, either don't fight the Soviets at all or engage in only desultory undeclared fighting before Germany turns on Russia and makes Russia and Britain allies. The USSR never loses a piece of Iran to the Axis that its own forces do not reclaim. The British and Americans never have the opportunity to invade any portions of Iran under temporary Axis occupation.
Have a scenario where the Germans invade Turkey and the Levant, and to protect their own flanks the Soviets invade Iran (and probably reclaim the Kars-Ardahan region of Turkey).
The British, with this additional fighting front against the Germans, either don't fight the Soviets at all or engage in only desultory undeclared fighting before Germany turns on Russia and makes Russia and Britain allies. The USSR never loses a piece of Iran to the Axis that its own forces do not reclaim. The British and Americans never have the opportunity to invade any portions of Iran under temporary Axis occupation.