Iran-Iraq War without the Ayatollah

How would the Iran-Iraq war have gone if the Iranian Revolution hadn't placed Khomeni and the Mullahs in power? Say the military takes power or a more congenial noble replaces the Shah a la the Glorious Revolution.
Would no Islamic Republic butterfly away the war or would Saddam have still seen post-revolutionary Iran as a weak and easy target?
 

Ak-84

Banned
Saddam saw Iran as an easy target since the Ayatollah had shot most of the generals and imprisoned many of the officers. If what you are describing had happened, then that would not be the case.
 
Very true. If the Iranian military was intact then the would be no war between the two. It is even possible that the military would put the Shah's son on the throne in order to project stability to the world.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Got to agree with AK and Chris. Had the Iraqi military tried going up against the Iranians without the immense personnel sweeps and reshuffling in the Army and Air Force that the Revolution put into place, then they would've gotten hammered hard.

The US would've had no qualms against openly backing Iran, and F-14s and F-4s trump MiG-23s and -25s any day of the week. That's why the Iranians bought them.

Even had it happened, think it would've probably not been as large though. Saddam probably would've known he couldn't get away with much, and it might have turned into a second round of clashes like those fought over the mouth of the Shatt al-Arab in the mid-70s.
That way, inferior Iraqi numbers could be brought to bear on a single point where they might be able to make headway. I still don't think they'd be able to accomplish their goals (they didn't capture the mouth in '75, they lost it in '82-'83), but it's the only thing I could see Saddam thinking is worth taking a gamble.
 
Had Iran never become an Islamic republic, Saddam Hessein wouldn't have attacked. He was smarter than that. Also, he was provoked, by the Ayatollah's declaration of Iran's intent to export the Islamic revolution to Muslim states wth secular governments.
 
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