Iran-Iraq war has a clear victor

Are any of these scenarios for the Iran-Iraq War having a clear victor particularly plausible?

  • Iraq manages to completely occupy Khuzestan in 1981
  • Iran captures Basra
  • Iran captures Kirkuk
  • Iran captures Suliemaniya
  • Kurdistan successfully secedes from Iraq
  • United States formally joins the war on Iraq's side
  • Iran successfully closes the Straits of Hormuz
  • Iran manages to reach the Iraq-Kuwait border
  • Iraq follows up on their successes in 1988 and launches another full-scale invasion of Iran using chemical weapons
 
Are any of these scenarios for the Iran-Iraq War having a clear victor particularly plausible?

  • Iraq manages to completely occupy Khuzestan in 1981
  • Iran captures Basra
  • Iran captures Kirkuk
  • Iran captures Suliemaniya
  • Kurdistan successfully secedes from Iraq


  • Sure.



    [*]United States formally joins the war on Iraq's side


    Hard to imagine.



    [*]Iran successfully closes the Straits of Hormuz


    Not really a victory condition.



    [*]Iran manages to reach the Iraq-Kuwait border

    Sure.

    [*]Iraq follows up on their successes in 1988 and launches another full-scale invasion of Iran using chemical weapons


Ouch. Diplomatic costs would be high. Not sure what new goals they would have. Full occupation is not possible.
 
Again one of these rather interesting scenarios: Define "win" for either side.

What does "win" mean to Iraq:
Occupation of Iran (a bit tough!)
Weakening Iran to the point of not being a threat to the Arab countries around?
Regime change?
Grab some of the oil fields in the border regions?

Iran and "win":
restore the borders?
Kill Saddam?
Spread Shiite interpretations?
Oil fields?


Before really diving into it, the objectives must be looked at and then it would be possible to create some nice "what if's" to tinker with the developments.

I do believe that Saddam saw a confrontation as inevitable. The mullah's on the other side were specifically aiming at Saddam.

Saddam proclaimed himself as the savior of the Arab nations and started the war with all the backing from Kuwait, Saudi et al.

The objectives: Maybe:
1) Internal tensions to be released into awar with an outside enemy (always a nice strategy)
2) To release the pressure on Arab nations from Iran
3) To seriously weaken Iran and create some peace for a decade or more

I am not sure even Saddam saw regime change as an option.

If these were the objectives, 1 was fulfilled, 3 attempted.

Now, would Iran have attacked Iraq within a decade counting from 1980?

THAT could be an interesting discussion all by itself.

Ivan
 
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