Iran-Iraq war decisive outcome?

Dorozhand

Banned
Is it possible for either side of the Iran-Iraq war to win a decisive victory? If so, what would it look like? Would there be territorial cessions? Would the middle east be stabilized by the rise of a major regional power in the form of either party, or would it make things worse?
 
Considering that Iraq was - at least by the middle-eastern Arab states - considered as the bulwark against any possible Iranian aggression, they might have considered Saddam Hussein a dangerous $%#$ (insert general swearword), but at least he was their (insert general swearword).

So, any victory by Iran isn't going to stabilise anything, but is going to make everything worse.
 
If Iran wins the war and is able to take significant territory from Iraq, it might weaken it dramatically as a regional power and still put it on the path of economic ruin that motivated its later invasion of Kuwait. But Iraq won't have a military to do this so, most likely things will get so bad that some sort of popular uprising with Iranian support will oust Saddam from power with another dictator replacing him more moderate to the Iranians. Puppet government? IDK. This could end in a blood bath of chemical weapons even greater than in our time.

If Iraq wins, then almost all of Iran's western seaports are in their hands and the country increases its oil output and puts more money in its pocket. Iraq's economy will be stronger and might be enough to keep it motivated away from invasion of Kuwait during the Gulf War and it will remain a regional power with a significant economy and military. On the other hand, it might also embolden Saddam to invade Kuwait and cause a much larger version of the Gulf War that lasts somewhat longer and leaves Iraq in a more dangerous state after its over. This leads to a bloodier invasion and occupation of Iraq needing more troops and possibly the threat of WMDs could come true for at least the coalition and the war lasts longer than the nearly 9 years it did now. It might also mean fewer Iraqis die from UN sanctions as Iraq can resist them more.
 

Flubber

Banned
Is it possible for either side of the Iran-Iraq war to win a decisive victory?

No, it is not possible.

Neither side had the ability/skill to cause a decisive defeat of the other and neither side had the ability/skill to exploit a collapse of the other to create a decisive defeat.

More importantly, the world powers would not allow either side to decisively defeat the other. A regional hegemon in the Gulf is a threat to world economy whether it's Baathist or Islamist.

Iran-Contra was as much about maintaining a stalemate in the Iran-Iraq War as it was about getting money for the Nicaraguan insurgency.
 
Is it possible for either side of the Iran-Iraq war to win a decisive victory? If so, what would it look like? Would there be territorial cessions? Would the middle east be stabilized by the rise of a major regional power in the form of either party, or would it make things worse?

Only if Saddam Hussein has more chemical weapons at his disposal and uses them even more widely and freely. The geography, infrastructure, and general state of both nations' armies means the only kind of war the two could fight was a bloody, attritional one. OTL the war came to an end partially because both armies were exhausted but also because Saddam threatened to gas Tehran. That gives another very gruesome possibility for a "decisive" victory, for one meaning of the word anyway.
 
No, it is not possible.

Neither side had the ability/skill to cause a decisive defeat of the other and neither side had the ability/skill to exploit a collapse of the other to create a decisive defeat.

More importantly, the world powers would not allow either side to decisively defeat the other. A regional hegemon in the Gulf is a threat to world economy whether it's Baathist or Islamist.

Iran-Contra was as much about maintaining a stalemate in the Iran-Iraq War as it was about getting money for the Nicaraguan insurgency.

I agree with this. The better Iraq is doing, the less support it gets from the Saudis and the West. The worse Iraq does, the more support it gets. Only a limited victory was possible for either side.
 
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