Iran developed nuclear weapons in the 1970's

Teejay

Gone Fishin'
The POD is that Iran under the rule of Mohammad Reza Shah starts a nuclear weapons development program, in the years just before the Iranian revolution as a way of defending Iran in case of a Soviet Invasion.

Although the exact time when Iran developed nuclear weapons could be either before the Iranian Revolution or immediately after it. Say in this POD Iran has nuclear weapons by the time of the Iranian Revolution. It would be definite that both Saudi Arabia and especially Iraq just before or after the Iranian Revolution would start a nuclear weapons development programs to create nuclear weapons in order to defend itself from Iran.

If nuclear weapons were available in during the Iran-Iraq war , I don't believe Khoemini would use them, since he against even developing nuclear weapons let along using them. Although if Iraq possessed nuclear weapons during the Iran-Iraq war Saddam Hussein would definitely use them.

How would both Iran, Saudi Arabia and possibly Iraq possessing nuclear weapons change the whole history of the Middle East from the Iranian Revolution onwards?
 
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Roughly a 90% chance of thermonuclear war by the millennium, call it a 75% chance that the rest of the world's powers are drawn in.
 

Ak-84

Banned
Unless they piggy back onto the Pakistani program (which requires massive POD), impossible. Iran lacked (and probably still lacks) the technological, Industrial, technical and Human resource base needed.
 
Before the revolution Israel and Iran were close allies. Maybe it could be Israel helping Iran’s nuclear program
 

Ak-84

Banned
Israel, South Africa and Pakistan all had reasons they needed to develop nuclear weapons. Why would Imperial Iran; having access to Uncle Sam's latest toys, be in a similiar situation?
In OTL, the three aforementioned countries asisted each other, but developed programmes seperatly (see Eating Grass). Iran, not have the technical capabilities to follow suit would do what? Provide monies? As Libya and S Arabia found out, no guarentee that they won't turn around and say "fuck off, build your own, and thanks for the cash".
 

longsword14

Banned
Before the revolution Israel and Iran were close allies. Maybe it could be Israel helping Iran’s nuclear program
Non proliferation is a thing, though. In some hypothetical scenario where nukes are a necessity, the US would park its own there rather than let tensions appear.
Remember Park Chung Hee ? After Nixon's change of policy, SK had attempted to get the bomb, only to be pressured by the US to shut it down.
 
The danger of Iran getting nukes was always that it could trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The Arab states, regardless of their relations to Iran, will not want to be under a nuclear umbrella. And with their oil revenue they can afford to buy the equipment and training to manage a nuclear program.

Think of it this way, if Pakistan could get the bomb how could the Arab states not acquire nuclear capability if they really wanted to?
 

Ak-84

Banned
The danger of Iran getting nukes was always that it could trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The Arab states, regardless of their relations to Iran, will not want to be under a nuclear umbrella. And with their oil revenue they can afford to buy the equipment and training to manage a nuclear program.

Think of it this way, if Pakistan could get the bomb how could the Arab states not acquire nuclear capability if they really wanted to?
The book the "The Islamic Bomb" answers this question succinctly and was written contemporaneously to the era in the OP. Pakistan has the industrial and technological base to sustain a programme. It also had the facilities to undertake research and excellent universities and institutes to train people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_Institute_of_Engineering_and_Applied_Sciences#History
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Engineering_and_Technology,_Lahore
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NED_University_of_Engineering_and_Technology


Arab countries lacked all of these.
 
Assuming Saddam still comes to power in this TL, no Iran-Iraq war most likely. Iraq will try to develop it's own nukes as it did in OTL, and almost certainly, just as in OTL, Israel will launch an airstrike to end it. If that's the case, then no Gulf War, and the Arab and Western worlds rely on Iraq as a counterweight to Iran. No Iran-Iraq War also means no Gulf War, no Iraq War, and no modern-day troubles. Iraq would likely be far more prosperous, and would avoid the troubles of any ATL-equivalent Arab Spring.

As for Iran, the weapons would be retained as a deterrent, but would not actually be used. The Iranian regime is cold, calculating, and rational.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Unless they piggy back onto the Pakistani program (which requires massive POD), impossible. Iran lacked (and probably still lacks) the technological, Industrial, technical and Human resource base needed.

Why is Pakistan's base so much more robust than Iran's? Pakistan has twice the population. But Iran has more revenue per citizen, especially when not under heavy sanctions.

Israel, South Africa and Pakistan all had reasons they needed to develop nuclear weapons. Why would Imperial Iran; having access to Uncle Sam's latest toys, be in a similiar situation?
In OTL, the three aforementioned countries asisted each other, but developed programmes seperatly (see Eating Grass). Iran, not have the technical capabilities to follow suit would do what? Provide monies? As Libya and S Arabia found out, no guarentee that they won't turn around and say "fuck off, build your own, and thanks for the cash".

Israel and Pakistan assisted each other on this?

Assuming Saddam still comes to power in this TL, no Iran-Iraq war most likely. Iraq will try to develop it's own nukes as it did in OTL, and almost certainly, just as in OTL, Israel will launch an airstrike to end it. If that's the case, then no Gulf War, and the Arab and Western worlds rely on Iraq as a counterweight to Iran. No Iran-Iraq War also means no Gulf War, no Iraq War, and no modern-day troubles. Iraq would likely be far more prosperous, and would avoid the troubles of any ATL-equivalent Arab Spring.

As for Iran, the weapons would be retained as a deterrent, but would not actually be used. The Iranian regime is cold, calculating, and rational.

That is not the only question though. With a nuclear shield, might Iran feel it can play harder at lower rungs of the escalatory ladder, like using chemical weapons in quantity against neighboring adversaries, or making liberal use of conventional missiles or armed proxies? Tehran could rationally think that although using nukes on anyone is very risky against any country with its own nuclear weapons or a nuclear ally, it's own nuclear weapons allow more aggressive overseas behavior with a reasonable expectation of impunity.
 

Ak-84

Banned
Why is Pakistan's base so much more robust than Iran's? Pakistan has twice the population. But Iran has more revenue per citizen, especially when not under heavy sanctions.
One word. Oil. Irans industry is mostly oil based. Pakistan has a much more developed and diverse industrial base. Especially in engineering, and electronics.

Israel and Pakistan assisted each other on this?

The way it worked was the there was a sharing of information and views between scientists who were overseas. The Pakistan-South Africa link has been declassified, its speculated that a similar sharing occurred with Israel.
 
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