What if, and how:
For whatever reason the American-European forces leave Afghanistan in the nearby future, may it be because of public unrest, detoriating European-American relations, the collapse of NATO or outside pressure - what if, Iran and Pakistan decide to partially annex the failed state that is Afghanistan.
I'd say it is logical that Iran would take the northern provinces and Pakistan the southern, with the divide being the language barrierd of Eastern Persian (Iran) and Pashto (Pakistan).
Not debating on wether or not officially annexing, rather then simply using it as a puppet state, is the smartest thing to do; what would the reaction of the international community be?
For example:
How will India respond to Pakistan actively fighting once more? (In the Pakistani-Indian War(s), Pakistan always considered Afghanistan as a last resort refuge if India were to invade, will India now simply laugh and think Pakistan has bitten off more then they can chew or consider it a warning over potentially more hostilities between the neighbouring countries?)
How will the American public (and most importantly the Republican Party) respond to "Obama letting Iran's imperialism go unpunished"? (Clarification: Obama is still President at this time, and he pulled back his troops thinking that Iran would not dare openly defy the U.S., or that he could presusre enough diplomatically to prevent any Iranian military action.)
How will the Europeans feel about all their hard work going to waste (the northern european controlled provinces are relatively peaceful), both in terms of capital as in terms of casualties that they suffered for a war they were not to fond of anyway, how will they deal with the U.S. practically demanding their support in a war only to then have it all be for nothing?
What will be the role of the Taliban in all of this? Will they be considered enemies or heroes? Will they fight the newly invading forces or try to work together? Will they favor Iran of Pakistan?
How will the already fragile federal government of Pakistan be able to keep control of the country? Will the military structure stay intact? Will the government remain in power? Would it be total anarchy? Would be the first step to restoring the country to a great regional power?
And a little side track; what will the consequences be for the Iraq War, the War on Terror, Islamic World? Or even Iraq in general, will they be afraid of being Iran's next target?
For whatever reason the American-European forces leave Afghanistan in the nearby future, may it be because of public unrest, detoriating European-American relations, the collapse of NATO or outside pressure - what if, Iran and Pakistan decide to partially annex the failed state that is Afghanistan.
I'd say it is logical that Iran would take the northern provinces and Pakistan the southern, with the divide being the language barrierd of Eastern Persian (Iran) and Pashto (Pakistan).
Not debating on wether or not officially annexing, rather then simply using it as a puppet state, is the smartest thing to do; what would the reaction of the international community be?
For example:
How will India respond to Pakistan actively fighting once more? (In the Pakistani-Indian War(s), Pakistan always considered Afghanistan as a last resort refuge if India were to invade, will India now simply laugh and think Pakistan has bitten off more then they can chew or consider it a warning over potentially more hostilities between the neighbouring countries?)
How will the American public (and most importantly the Republican Party) respond to "Obama letting Iran's imperialism go unpunished"? (Clarification: Obama is still President at this time, and he pulled back his troops thinking that Iran would not dare openly defy the U.S., or that he could presusre enough diplomatically to prevent any Iranian military action.)
How will the Europeans feel about all their hard work going to waste (the northern european controlled provinces are relatively peaceful), both in terms of capital as in terms of casualties that they suffered for a war they were not to fond of anyway, how will they deal with the U.S. practically demanding their support in a war only to then have it all be for nothing?
What will be the role of the Taliban in all of this? Will they be considered enemies or heroes? Will they fight the newly invading forces or try to work together? Will they favor Iran of Pakistan?
How will the already fragile federal government of Pakistan be able to keep control of the country? Will the military structure stay intact? Will the government remain in power? Would it be total anarchy? Would be the first step to restoring the country to a great regional power?
And a little side track; what will the consequences be for the Iraq War, the War on Terror, Islamic World? Or even Iraq in general, will they be afraid of being Iran's next target?