Iran and Pakistan divide Afghanistan

What if, and how:

For whatever reason the American-European forces leave Afghanistan in the nearby future, may it be because of public unrest, detoriating European-American relations, the collapse of NATO or outside pressure - what if, Iran and Pakistan decide to partially annex the failed state that is Afghanistan.

I'd say it is logical that Iran would take the northern provinces and Pakistan the southern, with the divide being the language barrierd of Eastern Persian (Iran) and Pashto (Pakistan).

Not debating on wether or not officially annexing, rather then simply using it as a puppet state, is the smartest thing to do; what would the reaction of the international community be?

For example:

How will India respond to Pakistan actively fighting once more? (In the Pakistani-Indian War(s), Pakistan always considered Afghanistan as a last resort refuge if India were to invade, will India now simply laugh and think Pakistan has bitten off more then they can chew or consider it a warning over potentially more hostilities between the neighbouring countries?)

How will the American public (and most importantly the Republican Party) respond to "Obama letting Iran's imperialism go unpunished"? (Clarification: Obama is still President at this time, and he pulled back his troops thinking that Iran would not dare openly defy the U.S., or that he could presusre enough diplomatically to prevent any Iranian military action.)

How will the Europeans feel about all their hard work going to waste (the northern european controlled provinces are relatively peaceful), both in terms of capital as in terms of casualties that they suffered for a war they were not to fond of anyway, how will they deal with the U.S. practically demanding their support in a war only to then have it all be for nothing?

What will be the role of the Taliban in all of this? Will they be considered enemies or heroes? Will they fight the newly invading forces or try to work together? Will they favor Iran of Pakistan?

How will the already fragile federal government of Pakistan be able to keep control of the country? Will the military structure stay intact? Will the government remain in power? Would it be total anarchy? Would be the first step to restoring the country to a great regional power?

And a little side track; what will the consequences be for the Iraq War, the War on Terror, Islamic World? Or even Iraq in general, will they be afraid of being Iran's next target?
 
It depends on how this happens, the US may decide that Iran getting bogged down in Afghanistan may be a good thing. However the Afghans in their various groups may decide that there is some sort of link with Iran and Pakistan and happily link themselves with these two countries. If a breakup is done legally, perhaps with plebicites etc then what can the world do?
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
A better POD might be when the Taliban murdered a bunch of Sji'its and Iranian diplomats back in the 90's. It almost came to a war but at the last minute the invasion was cancelled. It could very well have ended up in a shooting war.
 
What if, and how:


How will India respond to Pakistan actively fighting once more? (In the Pakistani-Indian War(s), Pakistan always considered Afghanistan as a last resort refuge if India were to invade, will India now simply laugh and think Pakistan has bitten off more then they can chew or consider it a warning over potentially more hostilities between the neighbouring countries?)

oh!my nightmare scenario. if Indian leadership has no control and just lets Pakistan annex pasthunistan. i assure you it will be like biting more than they can chew. pasthuns are extremely territorial and tribal. they are loyal to their clans and not geographical lines. they have as such never recognized durrand line and travel between pakistan and afghanisthan at their will. they have almost annexed peshawar and terrorized the swat valley in OTL. imagine now becoming part of offical pakistan, islamabad and karachi will be gone to dogs by these tribal lords. the only thing India should do is build a high wall with extremely severe security and do a shoot at sight of terrorist crossings. India and pakistan in OTL are bitter enemies. This animosity started way before pakistan is created and actually from afghanistani invaders like mohd.ghori, mohd.ghazni and moghul rulers. India in her heart will never forget the pain caused by these monsters. so it will be vary for Indians rembering ancient pain and inciting anarchy thru 160 million strong muslim population in India. This will be the worst nightmare to India. Pakistan is a cushion to us in actuality from afghan terror.
 
Oh my god, you have to be kidding me. Pakistan can't even control the border area with Afghanistan, let alone the whole country. Their army will just get continuously punished by indian armed taliban who want to draw the majority of Paki strength away from their border.

With so many enemies this is also the last thing Iran needs, if CIA/GCC states are funding internal enemies this will be a godsend to them as a way to grind away at the Iranian army.
 
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