Iowa is Rubio Country

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The 2016 Republican Iowa caucuses on February 1 2016, were concluded through pretty close results between Ted Cruz (who won the Iowa caucuses with 28 % of the vote), Donald Trump (who got 24 %) and Marco Rubio (who got 23 % of the vote).

If I made a timeline about an alternate scenario in which Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses, it would not be interesting because I think that Trump would still have won the Republican nomination if he won the Iowa caucuses.

So I decided to make a timeline about what would have happened if Florida Senator Marco Rubio, rising star of the Republican Party, won the Iowa caucuses.

Note : This is a timeline that I'm writing on another website since 2017 so there are some actual events that I wrote before they actually happened between 2017 and 2019. I just say this in order to avoid any confusion.
 
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After Mitt Romney's lost the 2012 US presidential election to Barack Obama, the Republican Party must decide which way to turn.

In 2013, first year of Barack Obama's second term as President of the United States, America faces many divisions among its people. The GOP is divided, mostly on immigration issues due to the Gang of Eight's comprehensive immigration reform bill that would have gave access to American citizenship for illegal immigrants. The American people is also divided on the gun control issue.

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The Syrian Civil War opposing the dictatorial regime Bachar al-Assad, supported materially and militarily by Russia for economic purposes, and the Syrian rebellion intensifies, triggering debates on whether the United States should intervene militarily to support the Syrian rebellion. The Ukrainian revolution of 2014 is marked by protests against Russia's political and economic influence on Ukraine. After multiplied protests, pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych resigns, thus gradually freeing Ukraine from Russia's influence and orienting Kiev to the European Union, a tendency reinforced by the election of Petro Proshenko as President of Ukraine on May 2014. But days after Yanukovych fled Kiev on February 2014, an armed pro-Russian rebellion opposed to the Europeanization emerges in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, multiplying attacks against the Ukrainian army. Determined to protect it's economic interests in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin's Russia intervenes militarily in Ukraine, annexes Crimea, and materially supports the pro-Russian rebellion, all actions marking a violation of territorial integrity.

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Due to US troops' and US allies' troops withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, this country witnesses the emergence of the jihadist group of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a branch of Al Qaeda operating in Iraq and Syria. Led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS takes most of the western part of Iraq and approaches Baghdad. It also extended its territory in eastern Syria. ISIS' rise forced the United States and their allies, including their Arab partners, to start an air-based military intervention in Iraq and Syria in order to fight ISIS through airstrikes.

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Partly due to such increasing international insecurity and to Obama's decreasing job approval, the 2014 midterm elections were concluded through successes by the Republican Party who increased its dominance in the House of Representatives by gaining 13 more seats, which puts the party at 247 seats against 188 seats for the Democrats. Republicans also took control of the U.S. Senate by gaining 9 Senate seats, thus putting it at 54 seats against 46 seats for the Democrats. So Republicans control both chambers of the Congress, which is likely to complicate President Obama's political agenda.

At the end of 2014, the Obama administration normalized the relations between the United States and Cuba, thus reinforcing the possibility that the Cuban embargo would be lifted, a policy opposed by Republicans who think that it would increase the Castro regime's tyrannical and oppressive influence on the Cuban people. In 2014 and 2015, many innocent African-Americans were killed by white policemen or white supremacists (including in Charleston, South Carolina, on June 2015), which divides the country, triggers riots and contributes to the emergence of Black Lives Matter, a movement fighting for the African-American cause. On June 26 2015, the Supreme Court of the United States legalized gay marriage. On October of the same year the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an agreement of nuclear non-proliferation on Iranian nuclear, is adopted, thus lifting US sanctions against Iran though it increased concerns among the American people since the lifting of US sanctions would allow Iran to earn the necessary revenues to develop its uranium in order to construct nuclear weapons, which would be a threat to international security. And on December 2015, President Obama ratified the Paris Agreement dealing with, greenhouse gases emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020.

Obama's second term is also marked by an improvement of the economic situation through the decrease of unemployment rate. Job creation under Obama's presidency is mostly due to tax cuts for the middle class and small businesses, support to U.S. automobile industry and decreased imports of foreign oil and gas, thus reducing the unemployment rate to 5 % in January 2016. Yet, it's one of the slowest economic growths America has ever known due to increased taxes and regulations on the American people, businesses and energy industry, to a low GDP, to low minimum wage and to an increased national debt that almost hits 20 trillion dollars. In 2015, Obama has urged Congress to ratify a 12-nation free trade pact called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free trade deal that would lower tariffs and increase economic and trade relations between the United States and Asian countries in the Pacific region, except for China and North Korea, thus making America competitive in Pacific and Asian markets.

In 2015, national security concerns emerged among the American people due to multiplied terrorist attacks around the world, notably two attacks in Paris (January and November) and two attacks on the United States’ territory (the first one in Garland, Texas, on May 2015 and the second one in San Bernardino, California, on December 2015).
 
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Meanwhile, the 2016 US presidential election race starts. On March 2015, Texas Senator Ted Cruz becomes the first Republican to announce his candidacy for President of the United States. A week later, it was Kentucky Senator Rand Paul's turn. On mid-April, former First Lady, former New York Senator and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announces that she launches a second presidential bid, eight years after her failed bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. The next day, Republican Florida Senator Marco Rubio announces his candidacy for President of the United States, declaring that yesterday is over and that America must look to the future. In total, 6 Democrats and 17 Republicans are running for President in the 2016 election cycle. This high number of candidates among Republicans makes the 2016 Republican primary race the most wide-open contest.

But one of the most controversial candidacies among Republicans is businessman, reality television and real estate developer Donald Trump's candidacy who declared his candidacy in mid-June 2015 while declaring that Mexican are « rapists, criminals and drug dealers ». Donald Trump calls for a deportation of all illegal immigrants, plans to build a wall on the US-Mexican borders to stop illegal immigration and seeks to renegotiate free trade deals. Trump multiplies it's controversial comments, especially on John McCain's war hero status, and mocked disabled reporter with the following words : « Uh, I don't know what I said. Uh, I don't remember. » He also promises to fight terrorism by killing women and children of terrorists. Despite these controversial comments, Donald Trump rises in the polls for the Republican nomination and even rises to the top of all the 17 Republican candidates for President. This is mostly due to the American people's increasing fatigue towards politicians and political elites which, they believe, abandoned them. Donald Trump's rise is also due to his populist message. This anti-establishment sentiment is not only felt among Republicans : it's also felt among Democrats due to Vermont Independent Senator Bernie Sanders' candidacy. Sanders opposes free trade deals and unveiled an agenda more progressive than Hillary Clinton's by promoting a 15 $ minimum wage, free education and by making green energy development one of his main priorities. This agenda helps Sanders to become Hillary Clinton's main rival for the Democratic nomination.

The 2016 presidential race goes on through markable or controversial declarations, presidential debates, town-halls, rallies, fundraising events and visits across the country, mostly in early voting states in the primary season. While Bernie Sanders gradually reduces the gap between him and Hillary Clinton in the polls, Marco Rubio dominates the debate stages thanks to his strong debate performances, especially on his voting attendance record in the Senate, on Hillary Clinton, on economic issues, on social issues and foreign policy issues. Rubio's debate performances helps him to progress in the Republican primary polls by rising from 7th place to third place behind Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Rubio even edges his mentor and fellow Floridian former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (son of former President George H. W. Bush and brother of former President George W. Bush) when it comes to endorsements and becomes the favorite of the establishment.

As of January 2016, 12 of the 17 Republican presidential candidates are still in the race. Former Texas Governor Rick Perry, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, former New York Governor George Pataki and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham dropped out of the race due to their weak showing in the polls and their struggle to gain attraction and to raise money. Rick Perry endorsed his fellow Texan Ted Cruz while George Pataki endorsed Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham endorsed Jeb Bush. On the Democratic side, on only 3 of the 6 Democratic candidates are still in the race. Former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb and Professor at Harvard Law School Lawrence Lessig dropped out of the race.

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The Iowa caucuses of February 1 2016 are getting closer and closer and all the presidential candidates are strongly and fiercely investing their efforts in this rural state in order to boost their campaigns. On the Republican side, it's a close race between Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio while the Democratic contest is announced to be a dual between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
 
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