Yes, I suppose the winter of 40/41 is better. OK here's a rough draft. Tell me what you think.
-Late May 1940: Goering has a stroke. Ernst Udet becomes the de facto leader of the Luftwaffe and advises Hitler against the BoB and instead advocates a Mediterranean strategy for 1940/1941.
-July 1940: the first elements of the Luftwaffe arrive. Italian facilities on Sicily prove inadequate so Udet requests and receives engineers to expand these and build new ones over the next few months. 'Operation Seagull', a deception to make Britain believe an invasion is in the works, begins at around the same time. Mock landing craft are assembled in northern France and Luftwaffe sorties over the Channel increase in frequency. Naval activity increases 'alarmingly'.
- September/October 1940: large contingents of Luftwaffe units begin to arrive after a delay due to lacking Italian facilities and trouble getting the aircraft there in the first place. First elements of Rommel's Africa Corps arrive in Libya.
- November 1940: The invasion of Malta commences. Hundreds of Luftwaffe bombers and dive bombers devastate the island with fighter cover. Air supremacy over Malta is a fact and two German airborne divisions land behind Valetta in gliders and by parachute albeit at high casualties. Three Italian divisions under cover from the Luftwaffe and the Regia Marina land near Valetta and the outnumbered British garrison is defeated.
- December 1940/January 1941: the Africa Corps now numbers four panzer divisions which is the maximum with Italian Libya's limited port facilities. Rommel launches an offensive against Mussolini's will as he feels Rommel is robbing him of his glory. He reluctantly orders Graziani's Tenth Army to support him and they reach Sidi Barrani where Graziani wants to stop for more intelligence and supplies. Rommel disregards orders and surprises the British main force at Mersa Matruh. The result is a rout by Rommel's already legendary panzers and one of the blackest days in British Army history. Mersa Matruh is the terminus for the railway leading to El Alamein, in itself an insignificant town, but south lay the wide open Qattara depression. Rommel outruns his supply lines and is forced to halt before El Alamein.
- February 1941: Defences at El Alamein are not yet as powerful as IOTL's 1942. In the battle that ensues, Rommel scores a victory if at a high casualty rate. His panzers begin suffering from breakdown more and more and Libya's port facilities and infrastructure in North Africa make resupply troublesome at best although German engineers are attempting to fix the problem, something which will not be finished for Rommel's push to Suez and will provide little relief. Rommel stops again.
- May 1941: after an advance through the barren desert, victories at Alexandria and Cairo and a loss of over a quarter of the Africa Corp's tanks, Rommel reaches the Suez Canal. With this latest victory, the Africa Corps has about half of its December/January strenghth (althoug quite a number of tanks were lost to breakdown rather than enemy fire). Nevertheless, the Luftwaffe has been the dominant air force in the Mediterranean with almost 2000 aircraft in the region and probably more a key factor in Rommel's victories than his brazen armoured attacks. Hitler is slightly disappointed as Operation Barbarossa (the invasion of the USSR) had been planned in May. These losses force him to postpone Barbarossa to June 1941 at least (although he now avoids the Rasputitza rains).
Nevertheless, the eastern Mediterranean Sea is now in Axis hands. The only entry is now pas the gauntlet at Malta where the Regia Aeronautica and the Luftwaffe patrol the seas. With this, Greece is cowed by Mussolini into allowing the Regia Marina, but also the army and air force, basing rights on various islands in the Aegean Sea and while Hitler draws his plans against Stalin, Yugoslavia's prospects are looking bleak as well as it has no less than three unfriendly neighbours (Italy, Hungary and Bulgaria) and can't expect help from Britain. Britain, in the meantime, is forced to reconsider her options...