Invasion of the USSR in 1942.

Big Phil

Banned
Your question is wrong from a technical standpoint - and I work with forming and asking questions (but in Swedish).

Your questions SHOULD be "Do you believe that a capture of Malta, at the time discussed and with the military, material, tactical and political conditions at that time, is unlikely?" And please include the time and other factors in your question, since the answer may depend on it
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:rolleyes:
But thats not want I want to know.
I want to know if he thinks it is even possible.
 
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:rolleyes:
But thats not want I want to know.
I want to know if he thinks it [an Axis invasion of Malta] is even possible.

At what time? June 1940, november 1940, june 1941 or later?

With or without ASB factors?

With how big POD?

Please, Big Phil - think before you write, and read what you have written and clearify what is unclear before you post. As it is now half of the board have to guess what you actually are saying.
 

Big Phil

Banned
At what time? June 1940, november 1940, june 1941 or later?

With or without ASB factors?

With how big POD?

Please, Big Phil - think before you write, and read what you have written and clearify what is unclear before you post. As it is now half of the board have to guess what you actually are saying.

Just possible at all.
He can pick the year.
 
For an invasion of Malta, I'd like to propose a different PoD. The PoD is that Goering has a stroke in late May 1940 and Ernst Udet takes his position. He advises Hitler against the BoB, knowing that any air superiority, if any, will be temporary, at a high cost and over southern England only. The navy similarly knows that the RN will kill the invasion. Instead of the BoB, the Luftwaffe goes south. Historically, the Luftwaffe lost almost 1900 planes and many pilots in the BoB, irrecoverable losses (while British pilots who were downed and survived could just hop into another plane).

These almost 2000 aircraft are sent to Sicily while the other 2000 that were not lost are used for defence duties against the inevitable bombing campaign which might turn out bloodier for the RAF. With 2000 planes, air superiority over Malta is not in doubt and soon any military an port installations will get the crap bombed out of them. The track record of the Luftwaffe in 1940 in sinking ships was not great but with 2000 planes as air cover for the Regia Marina, an invasion of Malta is possible IMVHO. I don't know naval dispositions of the Royal Navy for that period (enlighten me if you know) but it seems to me that, with Weserübung and Operation Dynamo not so long ago, a lot of RN assets will be in the North Sea. Couple this with an intact 'Nazi invincibility myth' due to no BoB and the fact that the Germans could go anywhere, these will stay (especially if the British think an invasion is coming).

The invasion occurs in July 1940 and Malta is taken by two Italian divisions and German paratroopers. AFAIK the defences on Malta in June/July 1940 were not what they were in 1942 (when Operation Hercules was planned) so this doesn't sound wholly impossible to me. Then four panzer divisions (which Rommel believed to be the maximum that could be sustained AFAIK) are deployed to Libya. An intact Tenth Army + an Africa Corps on steroids might make it to the Suez (but not further).

Rommel did some amazing stuff with the limited means he had so maybe but only maybe it's possible for him to get there by spring/summer 1941. If he does it, then the Eastern Mediterranean is in Axis hands. Then the only way to get there is to run the Gauntlet past Malta and Axis aircraft stationed there and on Sicily and Tunisia. If it works, then Britain is in for a world of hurt and Barbarossa can still kick off on June 22nd 1941...
 
For an invasion of Malta, I'd like to propose a different PoD. The PoD is that Goering has a stroke in late May 1940 and Ernst Udet takes his position. He advises Hitler against the BoB, knowing that any air superiority, if any, will be temporary, at a high cost and over southern England only. The navy similarly knows that the RN will kill the invasion. Instead of the BoB, the Luftwaffe goes south. Historically, the Luftwaffe lost almost 1900 planes and many pilots in the BoB, irrecoverable losses (while British pilots who were downed and survived could just hop into another plane).

Now that's an original POD, instead of BoB, the attempt to win air superiority over Britain as precondition to Sealion, carry out the "Siege of Britain" strategy. One might add that in the Mediterranean much more Luftwaffe pilots could be rescued and also that even if BoB doesn't come the RAF still has to invest very strongly in air defence of Britain.
 
That's really well thought out. There really was no way Germany could have taken on the UK directly. The best way would have been indirectly, That has the makings of a great timeline there.

Yes, and even if Germany made the decision to take out UK directly (whether this would have been succesful or not), the Med strategy for 1940-1941 would have been a better choice than BoB. Without at least potent threat of landing more resources could have been directed to Club Med; without any threat to Club Med, more resources could have been directed to defence of the UK.
 
A number of problems, though.

I dont see how they can get all those planes, plus support, all the way to Italy in a matter of weeks.

Even when they do, I doubt very much if there are the bases available to operate from.

Then, what about stocks of the types of bombs for amti-ship duties? And the types of planes, and the training required.

I could see this being done by the winter/spring, certainly, but then Barbarossa is starting to loom.
 
Yes, I suppose the winter of 40/41 is better. OK here's a rough draft. Tell me what you think.

-Late May 1940: Goering has a stroke. Ernst Udet becomes the de facto leader of the Luftwaffe and advises Hitler against the BoB and instead advocates a Mediterranean strategy for 1940/1941.
-July 1940: the first elements of the Luftwaffe arrive. Italian facilities on Sicily prove inadequate so Udet requests and receives engineers to expand these and build new ones over the next few months. 'Operation Seagull', a deception to make Britain believe an invasion is in the works, begins at around the same time. Mock landing craft are assembled in northern France and Luftwaffe sorties over the Channel increase in frequency. Naval activity increases 'alarmingly'.
- September/October 1940: large contingents of Luftwaffe units begin to arrive after a delay due to lacking Italian facilities and trouble getting the aircraft there in the first place. First elements of Rommel's Africa Corps arrive in Libya.
- November 1940: The invasion of Malta commences. Hundreds of Luftwaffe bombers and dive bombers devastate the island with fighter cover. Air supremacy over Malta is a fact and two German airborne divisions land behind Valetta in gliders and by parachute albeit at high casualties. Three Italian divisions under cover from the Luftwaffe and the Regia Marina land near Valetta and the outnumbered British garrison is defeated.
- December 1940/January 1941: the Africa Corps now numbers four panzer divisions which is the maximum with Italian Libya's limited port facilities. Rommel launches an offensive against Mussolini's will as he feels Rommel is robbing him of his glory. He reluctantly orders Graziani's Tenth Army to support him and they reach Sidi Barrani where Graziani wants to stop for more intelligence and supplies. Rommel disregards orders and surprises the British main force at Mersa Matruh. The result is a rout by Rommel's already legendary panzers and one of the blackest days in British Army history. Mersa Matruh is the terminus for the railway leading to El Alamein, in itself an insignificant town, but south lay the wide open Qattara depression. Rommel outruns his supply lines and is forced to halt before El Alamein.
- February 1941: Defences at El Alamein are not yet as powerful as IOTL's 1942. In the battle that ensues, Rommel scores a victory if at a high casualty rate. His panzers begin suffering from breakdown more and more and Libya's port facilities and infrastructure in North Africa make resupply troublesome at best although German engineers are attempting to fix the problem, something which will not be finished for Rommel's push to Suez and will provide little relief. Rommel stops again.
- May 1941: after an advance through the barren desert, victories at Alexandria and Cairo and a loss of over a quarter of the Africa Corp's tanks, Rommel reaches the Suez Canal. With this latest victory, the Africa Corps has about half of its December/January strenghth (althoug quite a number of tanks were lost to breakdown rather than enemy fire). Nevertheless, the Luftwaffe has been the dominant air force in the Mediterranean with almost 2000 aircraft in the region and probably more a key factor in Rommel's victories than his brazen armoured attacks. Hitler is slightly disappointed as Operation Barbarossa (the invasion of the USSR) had been planned in May. These losses force him to postpone Barbarossa to June 1941 at least (although he now avoids the Rasputitza rains).

Nevertheless, the eastern Mediterranean Sea is now in Axis hands. The only entry is now pas the gauntlet at Malta where the Regia Aeronautica and the Luftwaffe patrol the seas. With this, Greece is cowed by Mussolini into allowing the Regia Marina, but also the army and air force, basing rights on various islands in the Aegean Sea and while Hitler draws his plans against Stalin, Yugoslavia's prospects are looking bleak as well as it has no less than three unfriendly neighbours (Italy, Hungary and Bulgaria) and can't expect help from Britain. Britain, in the meantime, is forced to reconsider her options...
 
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