Invasion of saudi arabia during 1980s

Khanzeer

Banned
From a purely military and geostrategic perspective [ putting aside religious, political alliances issues for the time being] what is the best way to invade a country like KSA, and what kind of military forces , logistics and resources would be needed ?

Timeline
1982- 1990

Objective
Invade and seriously cripple the govt the regime
Destroy its military installations, cripple its armed forces
Destroy sites of strategic importance to economically hurt the country and region


The invaders
USSR and you can pick your allies as Iran, iraq, yemen or a combination of any of them

Assume no NATO/USA involvement, but other Muslim countries like egypt, Pakistan, jordan , Turkey can help KSA

If this is ASB please can route to the appropriate section

Thanks
 

Khanzeer

Banned
A declassified CIA analysis here talks about the possiblities for a Soviet invasion of the Middle East, FWIW.
Thanks very informative but this deals with invasion of iran mostly
If USSR uses bases in yemen , Ethiopia and iraq goes along with it can a limited invasion succeed ?
1 - iraq sweeps down and attacks the eastern provinces, its navy and airforce might have to heavily bombard the saudi gulf ports.
2 - forces from yemen can attack upwards to jeddah and the populated areas there
3 - More forces and logistics can be based in Ethiopia blocking the straits of bab el mandeb and red sea

Any ideas ?
 
Doesn't the Carter Doctrine, and the Reagan Corollary to the Carter Doctrine, make it somewhat hard to rule out US involvement by the 1980s? Where the Carter Doctrine was mainly dealing with the defense of US interests through gulf-wide oil production from the Soviet Union, Reagan was pretty upfront that he was also concerned about the Iran/Iraq war spilling over, and that the US would directly intervene if its economic (again, oil production) interests in Saudi Arabia were threatened.

I don't think it's ASB, since I tend to consider ASB to limited to the truly impossible items/PODs, but unless other things changed, this would have some serious WWIII potential.
 
Thanks very informative but this deals with invasion of iran mostly
If USSR uses bases in yemen , Ethiopia and iraq goes along with it can a limited invasion succeed ?
1 - iraq sweeps down and attacks the eastern provinces, its navy and airforce might have to heavily bombard the saudi gulf ports.
2 - forces from yemen can attack upwards to jeddah and the populated areas there
3 - More forces and logistics can be based in Ethiopia blocking the straits of bab el mandeb and red sea

Any ideas ?
Re Iran... I suspect the Soviets would want to control or neutralize or at least be allied with Iran before undertaking large scale invasions of other nations in the region.

I don't see a Soviet / Iranian alliance as being very likely.
 
From a purely military and geostrategic perspective [ putting aside religious, political alliances issues for the time being] what is the best way to invade a country like KSA, and what kind of military forces , logistics and resources would be needed ?

Timeline
1982- 1990

Objective
Invade and seriously cripple the govt the regime
Destroy its military installations, cripple its armed forces
Destroy sites of strategic importance to economically hurt the country and region


The invaders
USSR and you can pick your allies as Iran, iraq, yemen or a combination of any of them

Assume no NATO/USA involvement, but other Muslim countries like egypt, Pakistan, jordan , Turkey can help KSA

If this is ASB please can route to the appropriate section

Thanks
I don't think the assumption of no U.S. / NATO involvement is reasonable. I don't see the U.S. and at least some of the other NATO nations being willing to let the Soviets invade Saudi Arabia.
 
I don't think the assumption of no U.S. / NATO involvement is reasonable. I don't see the U.S. and at least some of the other NATO nations being willing to let the Soviets invade Saudi Arabia.

Basically I can't see any way this scenario ends without, boring and pithy as it is, nuclear war. The US will have to respond. So we'll have to go with something a bit more exotic. Can Soviet culture 'invade' the KSA by storm in the 1980's? Perhaps the King suddenly develops an appreciation for Soviet Theater?
 

Khanzeer

Banned
I don't think the assumption of no U.S. / NATO involvement is reasonable. I don't see the U.S. and at least some of the other NATO nations being willing to let the Soviets invade Saudi Arabia.
That's why I suggested this be treated as ASB if possible, if we can discuss sea lion as implausible as it was here we can discuss this
 
That's why I suggested this be treated as ASB if possible, if we can discuss sea lion as implausible as it was here we can discuss this
I don't think this is quite ASB, but it is probably fairly close :)

Edit to add:

Maybe outlining why your preconditions (ie. no USA / NATO involvement) came about, might result in some different responses ?
 
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Khanzeer

Banned
I don't think this is quite ASB, but it is probably fairly close :)

Edit to add:

Maybe outlining why your preconditions (ie. no USA / NATO involvement) came about, might result in some different responses ?
I definitely agree that any invasion of KSA [ hell even Iran] would cause a measured US response at the very least, mullahs will turn proUS very quickly let me assure you it will happen.
Regarding all ATL invasion scenarios I like to look at them purely from a military or logistical standpoint assuming all other factors remain constant.It does give you a reasonable assessment of the comparative military might of the combatants.
If you enjoy such scenarios I suggest Binkovs battleground alt history YouTube channel.
Most of his ATL are almost ASB yet from a military standpoint they are fascinating and informative [ atleast to an amateur like me ]
 
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I definitely agree that any invasion of KSA [ hell even Iran] would cause a measured US response at the very least, mullahs will turn proUS very quickly let me assure you if that happens.
Regarding all ATL invasion scenarios I like to look at them purely from a military or logistical standpoint assuming all other factors remain constant.It does give you a reasonable assessment of the comparative military might of the combatants.
If you enjoy such scenarios I suggest Binkovs battleground alt history YouTube channel.
Most of his ATL are almost ASB yet from a military standpoint they are fascinating and informative [ atleast to an amateur like me ]

Okay.. Here is my oppinion as to how this might play out.

I don't think an invasion of Saudi Arabia by the USSR in the 1980's would pose many challenges for the USSR if they had near by nations to stage out of and Saudi Arabia didn't have a super power ally.

Having air corridors from the Soviet Union to the conflict zone would be helpful to the Soviets and the likely Soviet allies you mention makes this a virtual certainty in my view. Having a plausible excuse for building up forces in a near by staging area with out panicking the Saudis would be somewhat helpful IMHO.

Essentially the Soviets use their airborne and amhibious forces along with air power to rapidly overwhelm the Saudis in certain areas and seize, beach heads and or air heads. Several or more tank and motor rifle divisions can be landed later by sea lift.

I have my doubts any of the nations you mentioned as likely Saudi allies could plausibly seriously threaten sea communications between Saudi Arabia and the Soviet Union. To varying degrees those potential allies are also vulnerable to direct Soviet attack.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
^^^ thanks
But with 60 saudi F15 backed by tankers and AWACS wouldn't an airborne invasion be suicidal?
 
Not neccessarily ASB. You think too much in OTL patterns. But what if say Wahabbist Fanatics seize power in the KSA somehow and then proceed to commit purges on Hitler and Pol Pot levels and is already openly announcing plans to invade their neighbours?
All the "economic neccessity" in the world isn't going to make saving that regime a political possibility in the Western Democracies. And that includes a hypothetical me living back then. We'd consider it the equivalent of allowing Stalin to strike first against Hitler. It's going to lead to a boom in North Sea Oil and other offshore drilling, the Greens movements either coming around to accepting Nuclear Power as a clean alternative or being marginalized into irrelevancy and the like, but not NATO going to war.
 
Doesn't the Carter Doctrine, and the Reagan Corollary to the Carter Doctrine, make it somewhat hard to rule out US involvement by the 1980s? Where the Carter Doctrine was mainly dealing with the defense of US interests through gulf-wide oil production from the Soviet Union, Reagan was pretty upfront that he was also concerned about the Iran/Iraq war spilling over, and that the US would directly intervene if its economic (again, oil production) interests in Saudi Arabia were threatened.

I don't think it's ASB, since I tend to consider ASB to limited to the truly impossible items/PODs, but unless other things changed, this would have some serious WWIII potential.
I think it would take some very major PODs affecting US oil consumption/production to make the US independent (or nearly so) of Middle Eastern oil. Then it becomes ‘just’ a major geopolitical flashpoint rather than Uncle Sams Nutsack Lying Exposed On The Sand and it’s easier to envision some Soviet escapades almost but not quite resulting in war.
 
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