Invasion of Kuwait 1980s and it outcome ?

The Idea:
The Iranian Revolution goes civil war as French airliner that bring Ayatollah Khomeini disappear
(Shot down, Bomb attack, issue like TWA Flight 800, ABS)
The Iranian military neutral until this moment, intervene after Islamic extremist attack a Iranian Air force Base.
After Rumor about Pilots loyal to the Shah has shut down Air French flight 4721.
and Iranian Military brutal terminated the Revolution.
in end Iran becomes a Parliamentary Monarchy were the Military rules in Background.

Now with that events Saddam Hussein decide not to go War with Iran
but to retake former Province of Iraq, Kuwait let say in early 1981

How would be the Military out come of earlier Operation Dessert-storm ?
with equipment the NATO used in 1981 (see the AH-64 Apache needed another 5 years for it introduction.)
would it be similar success like 1991 Operation Dessert-storm ?

how would Soviets react on matter ?
special if Iran is part of coalition that fight against Iraq in this Operation Dessert-storm
and if there successful, how would be the impact on legacy of Ronald Reagan and rest of Cold War ?
 
Now with that events Saddam Hussein decide not to go War with Iran
but to retake former Province of Iraq, Kuwait let say in early 1981

In the OTL, Iraq overcame Iran after learning to script operations, and the same was done when taking Kuwait. I don't think it would've had enough time to prepare and rehearse by early '81. In a blog scenario of mine, it took Iraq about 5 years, until 1985, to be ready to move against Kuwait and KSA too.

would it be similar success like 1991 Operation Dessert-storm ?

how would Soviets react on matter ?

If Saddam moved without consulting the USSR, they wouldn't like it, and probably would have to maintain a public stance of opposing aggression. It's likely, though, that unlike the compliant, mostly defunct USSR of 1990, that of '81 would've opposed a military solution. Of course the US had more than enough power to prevail militarily in '81. It may not have had all of what it did in '91 (neither did Iraq) but had more than enough.
 

Pangur

Donor
How exactly to you get around the problem that the Shah was deeply unpopular in Iran The folk in the street protestinf hated his guts. Equally just exactly how are the Iranian army (conscript) going to open fire and keep doing so on their own flesh and blood?
 
Maybe a more likely scenario is that Khomeini's plane does crash but instead of the Iranian Revolution resulting in what it did, perhaps the Shah flees (or abdicates?) and puts reformists in power which basically bring about democracy. Khomeini was the guy who basically foiled the turn to democratized Iran, I think.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
The Idea:
The Iranian Revolution goes civil war as French airliner that bring Ayatollah Khomeini disappear
(Shot down, Bomb attack, issue like TWA Flight 800, ABS)
The Iranian military neutral until this moment, intervene after Islamic extremist attack a Iranian Air force Base.
After Rumor about Pilots loyal to the Shah has shut down Air French flight 4721.
and Iranian Military brutal terminated the Revolution.
in end Iran becomes a Parliamentary Monarchy were the Military rules in Background.

Now with that events Saddam Hussein decide not to go War with Iran
but to retake former Province of Iraq, Kuwait let say in early 1981

How would be the Military out come of earlier Operation Dessert-storm ?
with equipment the NATO used in 1981 (see the AH-64 Apache needed another 5 years for it introduction.)
would it be similar success like 1991 Operation Dessert-storm ?

how would Soviets react on matter ?
special if Iran is part of coalition that fight against Iraq in this Operation Dessert-storm
and if there successful, how would be the impact on legacy of Ronald Reagan and rest of Cold War ?
Would be worse for Saddam I think
Iraqi .military in 1981 was far worse off than in 1991
USSR would not start ww3 for Saddam but would reach a deal with Americans, probably no interference in Afghanistan from Pakistan for the Soviets not backing Saddam
 
How exactly to you get around the problem that the Shah was deeply unpopular in Iran The folk in the street protestinf hated his guts. Equally just exactly how are the Iranian army (conscript) going to open fire and keep doing so on their own flesh and blood?

Maybe a more likely scenario is that Khomeini's plane does crash but instead of the Iranian Revolution resulting in what it did, perhaps the Shah flees (or abdicates?) and puts reformists in power which basically bring about democracy. Khomeini was the guy who basically foiled the turn to democratized Iran, I think.

Just like OTL the Shah die in US Hospital of cancer and his son become new shah in exile, until the Iranian Military deal with situation, crushing the religious extremist and commies.
the offer the Shah to be "leader" of Iran, but as Parliamentary Monarchy, not absolut power the former Shah had, actually it's not even Parliamentary Monarchy, in fact is a facade for military leadership that dictate Iran.

So far i understand was Khomeini the key figure in Iranian Revolution without him the Religious movement will splitter into combating fraction.
and with Iran descending into Civilwar under Fraction the neutral Military step in to deal with that Matter.

In the OTL, Iraq overcame Iran after learning to script operations, and the same was done when taking Kuwait. I don't think it would've had enough time to prepare and rehearse by early '81.
Do this mean the Iraq military went unprepared into War with Iran from September 1980 to August 1988?
 
Do this mean the Iraq military went unprepared into War with Iran from September 1980 to August 1988?

To a considerable degree yes. Prior to the war one Iraqi general said that after the long struggle with the Kurds the army needed training to get back into the pace of conventional operations. But he went unheeded.
 
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