Invasion of Hawaii Dec 7

burmafrd

Banned
Since lost causes are so popular here I thought I would try one.



In this alternate Time Line Yammamoto manages to work out something different.


And with more support (Tojo does not become PM) vs the Army he is able to get more resources allocated for the attacks.


China is placed in stasis basically and some of the resources used elsewhere.

Not so much troops but supplies and shipping are not sent there in the same numbers.



He realizes that a long war with America is probably going to have one result but has to plan for it. And also has to plan that the Decisive Battle might not happen. OR at the least might not happen the way they hoped it would
(Attrition of the steadily advancing US Navy to the point it can be wiped out in that Decisive Battle)


So he looks long and hard at the situation and makes one major change right away. No Philippine Invasion. decides that the forces there are not sufficient to pose a serious threat as long as they are cut off from further reinforcement.

So the priorities are this:

Destruction of the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, invasion of and holding of Hawaii. The forces earmarked for the Philippines instead are used there. As well as some of the other minor attacks also are aborted.

Malaya, Dutch possessions for Oil, those remain as is. Wake and Guam also taken. But virtually everything else is canceled. The movement as regards Burma is also postponed. Will be done at a later date.

The Idea is to isolate the Philippines rather then waste the resources taking them.

This way the US has no major Pacific Base available outside of the West Coast.

That delays the counter attack for quite a while enabling the Japanese to fortify their possessions and if necessary wear the US out by years of slow advances. (Island Leap frogging as the US did was not thought of).


Now as regards taking Hawaii.


Once again gambles must be taken. Risks employe.

Since it was already decided to attack on a Sunday morning, take it a step further and have light cruisers packed with soldiers sail right into the harbor just minutes after the attack begins. That could be done - very risky but Light Cruisers steaming at top speed could do it.

In this instance you do not attack the ships by air- you board them from the sea. Place those Light Cruisers alongside the BBs early that morning (right at dawn) and have hundreds of soldiers swamping the ships.

Meanwhile other ships pour into the harbor and land on the docks. Any way you can get troops ashore quickly.

The air attack concentrates on taking out the air corps - straffing and bombing all airfields. And just as importantly hitting all the barracks in order to kill, wound and confuse as many of the Marines and Army troops a possible.


Now this would be very hard and of course very risky but you introduce your best ground troops right in the middle of the installations.

Capture the base and the tank farm and suddenly the Strike Force has no longer any worry about fuel. Considering the size of the tank farm there - that has implications for months to come.

I know this is wild and crazy but I thought I would throw it out there.

Take lots of planning and lots of practice but they did that anyway for the original attack.

So guys have at it. Tear this apart. Ought to be interesting no matter what.
 
...somehow I don't see even the IJN going for the idea of boarding actions on USN ships in Pearl Harbor.

Might be fun in the writer's forum, though.
 
The problem with reducing activity in China, is that it would be sane. Oops. What I meant was, the whole China quagmire was a result of junior Army officers conducting policy by assassination. Anyone who proposed something they didn't like, got shot.

They wouldn't like the reallocation of resources, so whoever proposed it would get shot. Just about that simple.

As it was, Yamamoto had to be shipped out to sea to prevent Army officers from killing him.

So... You've got to change that whole policy, which means Japan isn't in the Chinese quicksand (has Manchuria, but little to nothing beyond that), which means they don't get their oil from the US cut off, and, in any case, can buy oil from the Dutch and Brits. So, no Pacific War.

Edit: Exploring the idea in the Writer's Forum, where the standards aren't as strict, would make sense.
 

Ramontxo

Donor
The only way the Japanese can win WW2, is the same way the CSA can win the civil war. That is the USA (and/or its the federal government) giving up. Invading American territory (or attacking Fort Sumter) is not the best way to manage it.
 
You would have to give up either invading the Philippines Is or NEI in order to muster enough troops, supplies and cargo ships plus escorts to bring the soldiers and logistics needed to sustain the invasion of Hawaii.....
 
The IJN would have to send everything - and even then they are going to find that Pearl is better prepared than Wake Island was.........
 
Plus I don't think you can just write off the Philippines. The US has subs and bombers based there that can really screw with Japanese supply lines.
 

fred1451

Banned
Plus I don't think you can just write off the Philippines. The US has subs and bombers based there that can really screw with Japanese supply lines.
Just playing devil's advocate, but, how much fuel and munitions do they have stockpiled?
 
The Japanese had 11 divisions to play with to achieve their objectives in the Pacific. The main reason that Japan entered the war was to secure the resources needed ( I.E oil) to wage war. Her petroleum stockpiles were insufficient for large-scale, protracted hostilities, and her ability to increase domestic production was negligible compared to the needs of her military force.
The Philippines needed to be taken since it was the only major American bastion in the Far East and sat right along the supply lines that would be bringing the riches of the Indies to the home islands, that would go with Malaya with the major naval base at Singapore since it would act like a knife point to the Indies.
All all of the theaters, Burma would be the least vital but was still useful in securing Japan from a flanking attack into Malaya, thus, only a division and a regimental group were deployed to the region. The regiment with securing Hong Kong may be viewed in the same way but they were also assigned to the Indies.
The Division and a third freed up wouldn't be anywhere near enough to fight off the 40,000 or so Americans on the island, let alone hold it.
Also, trying to supply Hawaii (even if through ASB methods they managed to capture it) would be nearly impossible anyway. Hawaii was around 1,500KM from the last major Japanese island.
 
Erm, wasn’t there an anti-submarine boom outside PH that these light cruisers would have to get through? And a destroyer picket that would see them coming right from the start, thus putting the BBs and other vessels in PH on immediate alert due to hostile ships approaching? Plus the BBs were fully manned, meaning that their turrets were manned very quickly. I’m not sure that any light cruisers, no matter how fast they were, would survive very long on their final approach through the channel leading to PH.
So, no. This would be too suicidal even for the IJN.
:eek:
 

Geon

Donor
Success/Failure

Brmafrd

I have to admit your plan shows audacity and is very risky, but assuming the circumstances you mention with the army's complaints sidelined I could see Yamamoto trying it!

The problem is-he might actually succeed in getting troops into the harbor but they wouldn't survive past the first day at most.

Consider you still have thousands of sailors, airmen, and most importantly MARINES on Oahu. And they are all going to be bloody ticked off at the Japanese. An organized defense will be formed and Pearl Harbor will be retaken quickly. Yamamoto in all likelihood ends up assassinated by the army faction in the government for the loss of troops that were needed elsewhere. With the Philippines' ignored MacArthur is able to strangle Japanese moves southward by sinking Japanese supply ships. There isn't enough manpower to try for Hawaii and the Phillipppines so Japan has just shot its wad and the "victory disease" never takes hold.

Geon
 
Brmafrd

I have to admit your plan shows audacity and is very risky, but assuming the circumstances you mention with the army's complaints sidelined I could see Yamamoto trying it!

The problem is-he might actually succeed in getting troops into the harbor but they wouldn't survive past the first day at most.

Consider you still have thousands of sailors, airmen, and most importantly MARINES on Oahu. And they are all going to be bloody ticked off at the Japanese. An organized defense will be formed and Pearl Harbor will be retaken quickly. Yamamoto in all likelihood ends up assassinated by the army faction in the government for the loss of troops that were needed elsewhere. With the Philippines' ignored MacArthur is able to strangle Japanese moves southward by sinking Japanese supply ships. There isn't enough manpower to try for Hawaii and the Phillipppines so Japan has just shot its wad and the "victory disease" never takes hold.

Geon


I’m not sure that you’d be able to get anything like enough force together for that. Don’t forget that the IJN/IJA carried out their attacks in 1941/1942 on a logistical shoestring, so any light cruisers you assemble (for what is frankly a hare-brained attack that require split second timing and the inability of the USN to spot a task force sailing around the Western side of the Island) are going to be taken from somewhere else, increasing the risks of said shoestring to snap catastrophically somewhere. Besides – how many men would it involve and how would you feed them all?
 
The Americans had destroyers and aircraft out patrolling. Light Crusiers would be detected days or hours (the difference is whether they have time to abort or not) before entering harbour at which point they are sunk as they charge straight into submarines, destroyers, short batteries and the American battleline.
 
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