Invading Nazi-controlled Europe with Britain under Nazi rule

Given that Soviet citizens were already surviving on concentration camp level rations, not receiving LL would mean that the Soviets would either need to provide 50% less food for their soldiers or essentially starve their citizens. This is why you need to use calories and not weight for LL's importance.


More importantly, you're using the flawed logic of "the Soviets could beat the Germans on their own since they already stopped the black tide before LL came in full force!" Everything that the Soviets did before LL flooded in was using up the last bit of reserves that the Soviets had. Assuming no LL, then there would be nothing but Holodomor on acontinentall scale.

What reserves are these?

The date in your image is Dec 1944 only. And says things like we don't know and can only speculate but their math seems to add up to the weight I have described at least. When you say 50% less food for the Red Army where did you determine what the Red Army also had available from the Soviet supply on top of LL. I don't think that is said anywhere in that excerpt. I won't say the Red Army was always prioritized first in all cases, but for a mere 5 million tons of food being the only thing stopping what you are describing from happening, hard to believe. There was a Soviet famine in 1946-47 btw, but because they were exporting grain to East Germany and Poland and even at that time were still stuck below 40% of prewar levels.

this link has an extremely complete list of what was sent to the USSR via Lend Lease

the amount is staggering... roughly $11 Billion in 1945 dollars ($143 Billion in current dollars)(3 times that amount to the British Commonwealth and Empire)

http://niehorster.org/013_usa/misc/Lend_Lease_USSR.html

the complete list would take pages on this forum

The Soviet Union would have been very hard pressed to achieve victory without it. Survive perhaps, maybe even obtain a draw. But definitely no march into the heart of Europe.

Yes, 10.67 billion to be exact, and in relation to Soviet production that is anywhere from 4% to 12% depending on the source.

Numerical superiority in a war of attrition and encirclements waged over the Soviet Eurasian landmass. Germany was going to lose. That was clear as soon as the Red Army defeated them at Moscow. Even more clear after Citadel. They even knew it themselves I think after Moscow, how badly they had messed up. After Citadel Germany goes on the defensive and the Soviets for all intents and purposes have won. There were over 20 Soviet encirclements of German forces during the war. As soon as the USSR forces Germany on the defensive, that is it. The German Army at the Ruhr at the time of the Battle of Berlin was a shell of its former self.

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What reserves are these?


Numerical superiority in a war of attrition and encirclements waged over the Soviet Eurasian landmass. Germany was going to lose. That was clear as soon as the Red Army defeated them at Moscow. Even more clear after Citadel. They even knew it themselves I think after Moscow, how badly they had messed up.

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while I tend to think that the Soviets could have managed stalemate I don't think you are giving the weight that the literally hundreds of thousands of American trucks, or the 14,000 aircraft, or nearly 2 million tons of foodstuffs (particularly processed ration ready food stuffs), or the huge amount of signals equipment and wire. Without those trucks, the Soviets would have great difficulty in forming fully mechanized units like their tank and mechanized rifle corps, nor providing sufficient transport for their artillery divisions.

Which means taking the strategic offensive, such as at the end of the Kursk Battle, would have required massive sacrifices elsewhere.

It is important to remember that 14 million of the 17 million tons of aid came 1943-45 which is precisely when the German industrial production reached its peak, as did Soviet production but without that massive tonnage the Soviets are going to be hard pressed to push the Germans back to any degree especially at the speed they did so.
 
but for a mere 5 million tons of food being the only thing stopping what you are describing from happening, hard to believe.
5 million tons of Spam, Tushonka, chocolate, the high-calorie stuff. The fact you mentioned grains really shocked me at your short-sightedness.

If you really don't understand the numbers, the US was providing 6.6 TRILLION calories in 1944. Do you know how many tons that would in white bread? 2.5 million tons. Once you try to convert that into flour and wheat, anyone with a brain would realize that is an enormous amount of labor and resources saved from not having to farm.
 
while I tend to think that the Soviets could have managed stalemate I don't think you are giving the weight that the literally hundreds of thousands of American trucks, or the 14,000 aircraft, or nearly 2 million tons of foodstuffs (particularly processed ration ready food stuffs), or the huge amount of signals equipment and wire. Without those trucks, the Soviets would have great difficulty in forming fully mechanized units like their tank and mechanized rifle corps, nor providing sufficient transport for their artillery divisions.

Which means taking the strategic offensive, such as at the end of the Kursk Battle, would have required massive sacrifices elsewhere.

It is important to remember that 14 million of the 17 million tons of aid came 1943-45 which is precisely when the German industrial production reached its peak, as did Soviet production but without that massive tonnage the Soviets are going to be hard pressed to push the Germans back to any degree especially at the speed they did so.

And the LL for recaptured railroads the Germans destroyed. Tank divisions require trucks in them however at the start of Kursk the Red Army trucks in general were only 25% LL, but later in the war it became over 50%. That does not mean that their tank divisions need to suffer as they could more carefully conserve their trucks and use horses more and downsize the logistical demand for trucks.

I get your point that this would drastically alter things at some point, though. And I just realized Germany managed to have relative parity in terms of truck production. I thought it was much higher for the USSR

However, even the number of horses was dramatically affected. From 21 million in 41 to 8.1 million in 43.

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5 million tons of Spam, Tushonka, chocolate, the high-calorie stuff. The fact you mentioned grains really shocked me at your short-sightedness.

Grains want the only thing. In 1942.

4.5 billion eggs
3.4 million tons of meat
23 million potatoes
4.3 million tons of vegetables

But you are right this would need to be converted to calories. I thought bread would make up the vast majority still

If you really don't understand the numbers, the US was providing 6.6 TRILLION calories in 1944. Do you know how many tons that would in white bread? 2.5 million tons. Once you try to convert that into flour and wheat, anyone with a brain would realize that is an enormous amount of labor and resources saved from not having to farm.

No, I calculated it and got about the same amount of bread. I don't know what is involved in converting grain to bread honestly. How much grain would 2.5 million tons of bread be?

In 1942, there were 24 million (almost half the population in 1942) working on collective farms, 1.55 million elsewhere.
 
No, I calculated it and got about the same amount of bread. I don't know what is involved in converting grain to bread honestly. How much grain would 2.5 million tons of bread be?
It depends, but assuming a grain bread where the grain is around 30% of the flour content, then by our modern standards about 50% of the bread would be wheat flour. So, assuming 1.25 million tons of flour and that we somehow manage to get 100% out of wheat, we're dealing with 1.25 million tons of wheat per year.

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Assuming the 1945 average yield of 5 centners (500 kg) per ha, we're looking at needing 2.5 million ha of extra farmland, or about 4.24% more area under crops. That's about another million more people of labor needed, never mind the tools, fuel, fertilizer that might be needed.
 
It is important to remember that 14 million of the 17 million tons of aid came 1943-45 which is precisely when the German industrial production reached its peak, as did Soviet production but without that massive tonnage the Soviets are going to be hard pressed to push the Germans back to any degree especially at the speed they did so.
How did truck production compare? I think I am way off for the UsSR.
 
We're calculating what kind of benefit Germany can derive from conquering the Soviets. People tend to overestimate how much industrial capacity Germany would be able to squeeze from Generalplan Ost.
I agree with CalBear's estimate of roughly 36% for the amount of global industrial potential that the Reich would control. Germany wouldn't control the entirety of the USSR (just everything west of the Urals) but they would still have the majority of the USSR's industrial potential under their control plus whatever tribute they get from the rump Soviet that exists beyond the Urals.

Warmaking potential by country for 1937:
US - 41.7%
Germany - 14.4%
USSR - 14.0%
UK - 10.2%
France - 4.2%
Japan - 3.5%
Italy - 2.5%
 
I agree with CalBear's estimate of roughly 36%
Highly doubtful. Such a high percentage is only possible assuming Germany is not pillaging Europe, both occupied Russia and Britain are doing 100% of the war effort, and pre-war trade is restarted. As Britain's War Machine showed, UK relied on the Commonwealth and the global trade system to fuel its wartime economy, and this was while replacing the destroyed pre-war network that Germany had ruined. Given that Germany had been sucking Europe dry to feed its people better than before the war, the occupied Eastern Territories must be starved in order to feed the British, and once that happens productivity of the land is going to pummel. With the kind of inefficient agricultural and industrial practices that Germany would be installing, we're looking at deindustrialization.

I personally would say that Germany would have only 25% at most, unless it does full-blown benevolent and actually try to support the conquered.
 
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