Given that Soviet citizens were already surviving on concentration camp level rations, not receiving LL would mean that the Soviets would either need to provide 50% less food for their soldiers or essentially starve their citizens. This is why you need to use calories and not weight for LL's importance.
More importantly, you're using the flawed logic of "the Soviets could beat the Germans on their own since they already stopped the black tide before LL came in full force!" Everything that the Soviets did before LL flooded in was using up the last bit of reserves that the Soviets had. Assuming no LL, then there would be nothing but Holodomor on acontinentall scale.
What reserves are these?
The date in your image is Dec 1944 only. And says things like we don't know and can only speculate but their math seems to add up to the weight I have described at least. When you say 50% less food for the Red Army where did you determine what the Red Army also had available from the Soviet supply on top of LL. I don't think that is said anywhere in that excerpt. I won't say the Red Army was always prioritized first in all cases, but for a mere 5 million tons of food being the only thing stopping what you are describing from happening, hard to believe. There was a Soviet famine in 1946-47 btw, but because they were exporting grain to East Germany and Poland and even at that time were still stuck below 40% of prewar levels.
this link has an extremely complete list of what was sent to the USSR via Lend Lease
the amount is staggering... roughly $11 Billion in 1945 dollars ($143 Billion in current dollars)(3 times that amount to the British Commonwealth and Empire)
http://niehorster.org/013_usa/misc/Lend_Lease_USSR.html
the complete list would take pages on this forum
The Soviet Union would have been very hard pressed to achieve victory without it. Survive perhaps, maybe even obtain a draw. But definitely no march into the heart of Europe.
Yes, 10.67 billion to be exact, and in relation to Soviet production that is anywhere from 4% to 12% depending on the source.
Numerical superiority in a war of attrition and encirclements waged over the Soviet Eurasian landmass. Germany was going to lose. That was clear as soon as the Red Army defeated them at Moscow. Even more clear after Citadel. They even knew it themselves I think after Moscow, how badly they had messed up. After Citadel Germany goes on the defensive and the Soviets for all intents and purposes have won. There were over 20 Soviet encirclements of German forces during the war. As soon as the USSR forces Germany on the defensive, that is it. The German Army at the Ruhr at the time of the Battle of Berlin was a shell of its former self.
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