Invading Nazi-controlled Europe with Britain under Nazi rule

One should not overestimate how much German control over France improved their economic position. Control of France gave Germany about 49 billion marks in total (a minor percentage of which was needed to cover the occupation itself). In 1945, the German GNI was thought to have been 100 billion marks but they were massively in debt. It was unsustainable. OTL in 1945 their debt would be almost 500 billion marks. However, having control over the USSR and U.K. economies would vastly improve upon what was gained from occupied territories IOTL. However to garrison all these territories is just not feasible while also being at war with the US, at least in my opinion. There just aren't enough conscripts for Germany to call upon.
 
CalBear summed it up pretty well in a previous thread:
It could be done, albeit with almost unbelievable difficulty, from Africa. Take at least 10 years to set it up and God knows how long to manage the fight. Figure a door kick no sooner than the mid-late 50s. Losses would be catastrophic.

The question is why they would chose to do it. Without the UK or USSR it is one of those "what's the point" wars. The Reich can't get at North America, can't really get at the Western Hemisphere at all, not in any sort of force, even air attack would be exceptionally difficult, even if the Luft46 napkin-ware designs were somehow brought to life. That being the case, why the U.S. would spend the oceans of blood necessary is really difficult to imagine.
 
Related issues:

1) Does Japan still try to expand into the Pacific and thus provoke the U.S. into the war in the first place?
2) Do Canada, Australia, and New Zealand cut ties with the "mother country" at this point so as to avoid having any of their resources and citizens at the Nazi regime's disposal? If so, what do the Nazis do about it?
3) Are Ireland and Spain able to remain neutral and independent?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Short answer: Can't be done, at least with acceptable losses.

Somewhat longer answer: With the USSR defeated (with the A-A line presumably achieved) and the UK defeated and occupied there is no way to mount a reasonable invasion effort. Even a respectable air campaign is questionable since the Reich will have effectively unlimited oil reserves, access to enormous amounts of raw materials, AND all of the tech the UK was working on, including the RR jet engine design studio and Tube Alloys.

Game over.
 

Deleted member 97083

Short answer: Can't be done, at least with acceptable losses.

Somewhat longer answer: With the USSR defeated (with the A-A line presumably achieved) and the UK defeated and occupied there is no way to mount a reasonable invasion effort. Even a respectable air campaign is questionable since the Reich will have effectively unlimited oil reserves, access to enormous amounts of raw materials, AND all of the tech the UK was working on, including the RR jet engine design studio and Tube Alloys.

Game over.
And all the tech the USSR was working on too, and millions of forced laborers to manufacture rocket weapons.

While taking Britain by 1941 was impossible in the first place, if it did happen, it's basically halfway (or one third of the way) to a Man in the High Castle scenario.

Related issues:

1) Does Japan still try to expand into the Pacific and thus provoke the U.S. into the war in the first place?
2) Do Canada, Australia, and New Zealand cut ties with the "mother country" at this point so as to avoid having any of their resources and citizens at the Nazi regime's disposal? If so, what do the Nazis do about it?
3) Are Ireland and Spain able to remain neutral and independent?
1) Japan certainly still attacks the US at Pearl Harbor leading to the Pacific theater. Germany might still declare war on the US, they're in a better situation than OTL when they declared war.

However, with the Royal Navy defeated, Germany doesn't even need Japan as an ally anymore. The Germans will probably put Edward VIII on the throne in Britain, and attempt to make the dominions into puppet states, including India, Australia, and New Zealand, which Japan wants. Australian fears of the Japanese Empire might play into the Nazis' goals here. There may be a proxy war in India as well.

So the alliance probably ends. But there is a small chance that Germany uses Japan for an (impossible, unfeasible) combined direct assault on the US, especially with Hitler being Hitler. This is of course doomed from the outset.

2) Western Allied resistance certainly continues in the dominions. However, with all the resources of Europe including Britain, it would be vaguely possible for the Germans to force them into their sphere. They would have to act quickly however while the Empire of Japan is still a threat; otherwise, Australia and New Zealand will vastly, vastly prefer the US.

3) Ireland and Spain may remain de jure independent, but they will become client states de facto.
 

Magical123

Banned
Short answer: Can't be done, at least with acceptable losses.

Somewhat longer answer: With the USSR defeated (with the A-A line presumably achieved) and the UK defeated and occupied there is no way to mount a reasonable invasion effort. Even a respectable air campaign is questionable since the Reich will have effectively unlimited oil reserves, access to enormous amounts of raw materials, AND all of the tech the UK was working on, including the RR jet engine design studio and Tube Alloys.

Game over.
Surely with the resources of the dominions, any Latin American states the Us can bully/coerce into joining and the US heartland itself you could see a mammoth slog lasting decades and casualties in the hundreds of millions?
 
The USA will ensure that the Germans get zero footholds in North America and the Caribbean - that is British and French (and Dutch) islands are either absorbed occupied by the US or a "reliable" government in exile with US military presence, and Canada enters in to a formal alliance with the USA. Mexico and Central America can remain independent but any footsie with the Germans won't be tolerated. South America becomes somewhat more sticky - I could see some South American countries deciding to absorb British/French/Dutch possessions on the continent, this may be the price the USA is willing to pay to keep those countries close (a NATO equivalent). Some countries in South America may become problematic sooner rather than later such as Paraguay and Argentina. Australia and New Zealand will turn to the USA (one expects) and British and French Pacific islands come under ANZAC and/or US control. The DEI, Malaysia, Borneo, French Indochina are going to be an issue, I expect Australia will take sovereignty over all of New Guinea.

The bulk of German occupation forces will be tied up in the east for many years, in the west relatively small forces with cooperative local governments who will be more and more fascist (Pétain replaced by one of the fascists etc). Between Germany and Italy Africa north of the Sahara will be controlled one way or another, as long as the oil flows I'm not sure actually occupation would be attempted - simply not enough resources. Sub-Saharan Africa would see South Africa becoming the big dog in the southern third and friendly to the Germans. The rest...who knows.

If Britain is occupied you won't see the USA having a "Germany First" strategy, and if the Japanese attack PH I doubt the Germans will declare war. I don't think Japan will go after the USA because if Britain is occupied by the Nazis the oil, rice, tin, etc from SEA will flow to Japan on favorable terms, so no need to attack the DEI/SEA and no need to take out the PI so no need for PH. Japan would be more likely to try and pry off the Pacific coast of the USSR and some of Siberia rather than attack the US.

A Cold War, not a US invasion of Großdeutschland. With the resources of the UK, France, and Germany (and some help from Italy) you can have enough U-boats and surface vessels to make transporting an amphibious force from Iceland to the UK or the US to North Africa and then sustaining that force pretty much ASB.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Surely with the resources of the dominions, any Latin American states the Us can bully/coerce into joining and the US heartland itself you could see a mammoth slog lasting decades and casualties in the hundreds of millions?

What is vastly more likely is an ATL version of the Cold War. Tube Alloys will ensure that the Reich knows that the Bomb is possible. Once the Reich has half a dozen weapons, even if they have to resort to building a submarine around the damned thing to deliver it, any invasion is impossible. The massed ships, especially 'Phibs, would be far to vulnerable to even contemplate any invasion.

Access to the RR engineering department provides a vastly superior engine development stream than the Junkers Jumo series both in engine output potential and in reliability. British radar designs will allow for much improved and smaller ground based and airborne radars. Forget about the primitive wire guided/TV targeted AAM, they Luftwaffe now has the key to BVR missiles AND proximity fusing. The loss of the UK also removes the Merlin from ever even being considered by U.S. engineers, say good-bye to the P-51 and its exceptional long range performance. Control of the USSR's resources proves plenty of the more exotic ores needed to build more reliable and powerful jet engines. Combined this puts paid to any sort of serious strategic bombing campaign.

You wind up with both sides developing longer and longer range missiles, tipped with nuclear weapons, same as in OTL's Cold War. The West (including much of Asia since the USSR won't be sponsoring many Communist revolutions ATL) winds up playing a waiting game while the Nazi's run the economy of Europe into the ground (the Reich's version of a planned economy was even less effective than the Soviet system) hoping that the crazy bastards in Berlin don't push the button.
 
Yeah, as soon as the US will have nukes AND a way to send them through the air, without an airplane, over several thousand kilometers.
 

Magical123

Banned
What is vastly more likely is an ATL version of the Cold War. Tube Alloys will ensure that the Reich knows that the Bomb is possible. Once the Reich has half a dozen weapons, even if they have to resort to building a submarine around the damned thing to deliver it, any invasion is impossible. The massed ships, especially 'Phibs, would be far to vulnerable to even contemplate any invasion.

Access to the RR engineering department provides a vastly superior engine development stream than the Junkers Jumo series both in engine output potential and in reliability. British radar designs will allow for much improved and smaller ground based and airborne radars. Forget about the primitive wire guided/TV targeted AAM, they Luftwaffe now has the key to BVR missiles AND proximity fusing. The loss of the UK also removes the Merlin from ever even being considered by U.S. engineers, say good-bye to the P-51 and its exceptional long range performance. Control of the USSR's resources proves plenty of the more exotic ores needed to build more reliable and powerful jet engines. Combined this puts paid to any sort of serious strategic bombing campaign.

You wind up with both sides developing longer and longer range missiles, tipped with nuclear weapons, same as in OTL's Cold War. The West (including much of Asia since the USSR won't be sponsoring many Communist revolutions ATL) winds up playing a waiting game while the Nazi's run the economy of Europe into the ground (the Reich's version of a planned economy was even less effective than the Soviet system) hoping that the crazy bastards in Berlin don't push the button.
Oh well I guess the war game Nazi Eurasia vs American Oceania 1941-1970 is more exiting I suppose-if only a lot more destructive and terrible.
 
The USA will ensure that the Germans get zero footholds in North America and the Caribbean - that is British and French (and Dutch) islands are either absorbed occupied by the US or a "reliable" government in exile with US military presence, and Canada enters in to a formal alliance with the USA. Mexico and Central America can remain independent but any footsie with the Germans won't be tolerated. South America becomes somewhat more sticky - I could see some South American countries deciding to absorb British/French/Dutch possessions on the continent, this may be the price the USA is willing to pay to keep those countries close (a NATO equivalent). Some countries in South America may become problematic sooner rather than later such as Paraguay and Argentina. Australia and New Zealand will turn to the USA (one expects) and British and French Pacific islands come under ANZAC and/or US control. The DEI, Malaysia, Borneo, French Indochina are going to be an issue, I expect Australia will take sovereignty over all of New Guinea.

The bulk of German occupation forces will be tied up in the east for many years, in the west relatively small forces with cooperative local governments who will be more and more fascist (Pétain replaced by one of the fascists etc). Between Germany and Italy Africa north of the Sahara will be controlled one way or another, as long as the oil flows I'm not sure actually occupation would be attempted - simply not enough resources. Sub-Saharan Africa would see South Africa becoming the big dog in the southern third and friendly to the Germans. The rest...who knows.

If Britain is occupied you won't see the USA having a "Germany First" strategy, and if the Japanese attack PH I doubt the Germans will declare war. I don't think Japan will go after the USA because if Britain is occupied by the Nazis the oil, rice, tin, etc from SEA will flow to Japan on favorable terms, so no need to attack the DEI/SEA and no need to take out the PI so no need for PH. Japan would be more likely to try and pry off the Pacific coast of the USSR and some of Siberia rather than attack the US.

A Cold War, not a US invasion of Großdeutschland. With the resources of the UK, France, and Germany (and some help from Italy) you can have enough U-boats and surface vessels to make transporting an amphibious force from Iceland to the UK or the US to North Africa and then sustaining that force pretty much ASB.

I wouldn't say taking North Africa/Middle East is not doable for the US (assuming Germany even gets these places too for whatever reason), and I doubt the US would even be inclined to retake the U.K. It is much better to leave German forces tied down there.

Even if Germany exploits the economies of the U.K., France, and even the USSR, I don't see how they could ever hope to rival the US military (and you did say surface vessels). To try and to attempt to do so would be deeply unwise in the case of a navy.
 

Magical123

Banned
One thing is for sure, it would a struggle of the ages, and as Kor stated in Star Trek Errand of Mercy "It would have been glorious."

Well terrible and horrific and an utter failure of western civilization and 20th century culture and everything too.
 

Deleted member 97083

Yeah, as soon as the US will have nukes AND a way to send them through the air, without an airplane, over several thousand kilometers.
But no Operation Paperclip means this will be delayed for years.

Surely with the resources of the dominions, any Latin American states the Us can bully/coerce into joining and the US heartland itself you could see a mammoth slog lasting decades and casualties in the hundreds of millions?
The only way the US would have the motivation for that is if the Nazis tried to invade the US and failed.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Once they discover that the nuclear bomb is possible, how large of a nuclear stockpile could the Third Reich plausibly achieve within a few decades?
At least as large as the Soviets, assuming their program doesn't collapse from excessive graft (which is always a possibility with some of the Nazi bigwigs), so 30,000+ by the mid 1960s.
 
Could the Soviets set up a GIE beyond the Urals?
Depending on the circumstances surrounding the defeat there most likely would be a rump Soviet state beyond the Urals and there's a chance they could have a "peace" treaty with the Third Reich (like in AANW) where they are kept perpetually weak by being forced to supply the Reich with laborers and resources. They would likely keep Gestapo and SS agents throughout the country to make sure they aren't violating the peace terms or plotting rebellion.

Even if the rump USSR wanted to continue the fight, there's no plausible/feasible way they could considering the Reich now controls the most vital areas of the USSR (and the majority of the Soviet population as well) plus getting a large army past the Ural Mountains against a prepared Wehrmacht would be ridiculously difficult as well, assuming they could reform the Red Army in the first place.
 
Last edited:
Top