Into This Abyss: The Eurasian War (1915-1919)

[Sarantapechaina]

Can you be more explicit about the situation in China before going on?

To the best of my knowledge the OTL collapse of the Qing was a result largely of the belief that the regime had failed China in the face of foreign encroachment. Its military success was ensured to a degree by the Beiyang army - composed of more educated and liberal-minded recruits - largely going over to the republicans.

Certainly this is not an area of specialty for me, but I see a Qing dynasty that has failed more thoroughly than it did historically. So why is it putting up a fight more successfully than in our TL? I thought the Beiyang were dispersed and disloyal; what places them in the north and makes them loyal?

That is an excellent question.

The Qing Empire has, to a considerable degree, failed worse than it did historically. This - along with Japanese support - is one of the reasons that the rebellions succeeded in ways they failed to do historically. The Republic has at its disposal much more manpower - and trained manpower - than it possessed historically.

Historically, the Qing collapsed not because of the Xinhai Revolution qua the Xinhai Revolution, but because of Yuan Shikai's decision not to back the Qing regime with the Beiyang Army, which was loyal (to him). But here he has no chance to link up with the revolutionaries, who are more confident that they can succeed without him. So he sticks with the Qing instead.

A distinction here is necessary: the Qing did possess other "modernized" army units other than the Beiyang Army (collectively and inventively referred to as the xinjun, or New Army) but these were inferior in number as well as (most egregiously) in quality. In the OTL Wuchang uprising, modernized units did ally with the Tongmenghui and the other societies that staged rebellions over the railway crisis, but these were almost entirely non-Beiyang elements of the New Army. (Frequently, accounts of the Wuchang events are garbled to make it sound as though the Beiyang Army itself comprised the entirety of the New Army and that it was elements of the Beiyang Army that spearheaded the uprising, which may account for your confusion.) The Beiyang Army by and large remained cohesive throughout the events of the Xinhai Revolution. In OTL, it was only after Yuan began to toy with making himself emperor and later, when Yuan died, that the Beiyang Army fragmented into disparate warlord cliques.

Back to TTL. Initially - as in, "in the first few months of the rebellion" - the north-south split was much less stark, but by the time Duan's army had reached Huainan, the republic and empire had both managed to more or less marginalize the major disturbances in their respective spheres of local dominance. Isolated elements of the Beiyang Army were mopped up (and sometimes enrolled into the Army of National Revolution) by Republican and Japanese "volunteers" around Wuhan, for instance, while uprisings in Beijing itself and in Shanxi were eradicated by Qing and Russian forces.

 

[brokenman]

This is gonna be bad for France, facing the might of the German Army.

 

[Sarantapechaina]

France actually will outnumber the Germans considerably on the Western Front; they did historically, after all, and radically altered circumstances for German war planning since 1905 have meant that Germany's military never experienced the quantitative increases of the 1913 army bill. In addition, Germany will be contributing to the front in China, something that France can safely ignore.

So in a convoluted way, losing Russia as an ally is actually better for France's military situation in some ways.

 

[Leistungsfähiger Amerikan]

France actually will outnumber the Germans considerably on the Western Front; they did historically, after all, and radically altered circumstances for German war planning since 1905 have meant that Germany's military never experienced the quantitative increases of the 1913 army bill. In addition, Germany will be contributing to the front in China, something that France can safely ignore.

So in a convoluted way, losing Russia as an ally is actually better for France's military situation in some ways.

I'm going to need a little more explanation on this---I was always under the impression that IOTL the Germans had far superior numbers, which is why the BEF was needed to fight in France despite the fact that it was Germany fighting a two front war.

 

[Sarantapechaina]

I'm going to need a little more explanation on this---I was always under the impression that IOTL the Germans had far superior numbers, which is why the BEF was needed to fight in France despite the fact that it was Germany fighting a two front war.

Sure thing.

The French army was pretty heavily front-loaded and France regularly trained a much larger proportion of its potential manpower than did Germany, hence by 1912 the French had a slightly larger army than did the Germans despite their smaller population. This only increased with the institution of the three-year conscription law of 1913. But what France was unable to do was amass local superiority in numbers. Both France and Germany planned to use reservists more or less in the first month or so of fighting, but the French staggered their incorporation of reservist formations while the Germans employed all of their reservists from the outset. Similarly, the French had to spend critical time withdrawing troops from their empire - e.g. Algeria - while the Germans' colonies Schütztruppen were supposed to be more or less self-sufficient.

So while France had the potential to amass more soldiers in the OTL Battle of the Frontiers, it did not do so, partially due to logistical constraints and partially due to the institutional lack of comfort with using all of France's reservists immediately in the battle line. As it happened, this was ultimately a wise move: despite suffering an initial defeat, the French were able to recoup most of their losses from their reserves and African troops, and their strength actually increased after the Battle of the Frontiers, such that the French alone, without the BEF, outnumbered the Germans at the Marne. Furthermore, Germany's reservists were not well trained in modern infantry assault tactics and suffered heavy losses in the initial stages of the campaign, frequently by attacking in column formation or even line of march instead of building up fire superiority and advancing by bounds as per standard infantry regulations. France was better able to re-acclimate her reservists to uniformed service and did not suffer qualitatively to the extent that the Germans did.

The calculation that Henry Wilson employed to justify the BEF's deployment to the Continent was based on some pretty fuzzy math - Germany's division count was slightly inflated, while many of France's reservists were not included - to permit the BEF to precisely hold the balance of numerical strength on the Western Front. It's frequently repeated in nonspecialist publications and has become something of a self-perpetuating myth.

As for the specifics of TTL's French and German army policy, that'll come up in the next installment.

 

[CalBear]

Moved at OP request.

 

[LeX]

This is a cool TL. It seems like the war is even more more of a world war than WW2 was.

 

[BlondieBC]

Ha, I wish I'd been paid to write. I appreciate the praise, though.

I'm not entirely sure. From Peter the Great to Versailles, Russia and Austria managed to keep their peace over Poland and the Balkans with two exceptions. One was 1809; that was Napoleon's fault, and a clear aberration. The other was 1914. It'd be nice if a general study of Austria-Hungary and Russia and their relations existed, with an emphasis on figuring out why everything worked (with obvious ups and downs) until the July Crisis.

...

I would go with Willy and Nicky were the two least competent German and Russian leaders in the previous two centuries. I doubt Nicky would have been a good mayor of a city of 100,000. And i doubt Willy could be a good regimental commander.

 

[Karelian]

This will be a long and bitter war. Since Three Emperors’ League controls most of the "World Island", they will be more or less self-sufficient in vital resources as long as Russian agricultural sector keeps up in the strain of war.

And if the OTL Caucasus Front indicates anything, the poor soldiers marching to the hills, mountains and deserts of Central Asia will have to suffer extensively long supply lines, exhausting heat and freezing cold.

Great start for a TL, all in all.

 

[Falecius]

By the way, the stance Italy will take in this war can be interesting. Italy has grudges with everyone Fighting the Entente, even without Russia, is likely to prove a rather bad idea, though joining it would mean facing all the military strength of Austria basically alone. Italy can do much to put France in trouble if siding with the Germans, leaving the Austrian Army free to be deployed everywhere it is needed (likely in France). But it would be at a price, since France+Britain vs. Italy= Italian fleet on the bottom of the sea.
However, the premises of the TL seem to point towards Italian neutrality - at the beginning at least.

 

[Sarantapechaina]

Moved at OP request.

Thanks.

I would go with Willy and Nicky were the two least competent German and Russian leaders in the previous two centuries. I doubt Nicky would have been a good mayor of a city of 100,000. And i doubt Willy could be a good regimental commander.

I'm sure that personalities did play a role, but surely systemic factors are also relevant, no?

This will be a long and bitter war. Since Three Emperors’ League controls most of the "World Island", they will be more or less self-sufficient in vital resources as long as Russian agricultural sector keeps up in the strain of war.

Yeah, Britain's distant blockade is going to have a significantly lowered effect. Plus, with Germany not focusing on massing as much manpower at the front as fast as possible (time is no longer so much of a factor with Russia on-side), the Germans will - at least in the initial stages - have more available manpower working in agriculture. Should stave off the "turnip winter", at least in the short run.

And if the OTL Caucasus Front indicates anything, the poor soldiers marching to the hills, mountains and deserts of Central Asia will have to suffer extensively long supply lines, exhausting heat and freezing cold.

If the deployment for the OTL First World War was a bad dream, Danilov and Sukhomlinov are having a nightmare in TTL.

Great start for a TL, all in all.

By the way, the stance Italy will take in this war can be interesting. Italy has grudges with everyone Fighting the Entente, even without Russia, is likely to prove a rather bad idea, though joining it would mean facing all the military strength of Austria basically alone. Italy can do much to put France in trouble if siding with the Germans, leaving the Austrian Army free to be deployed everywhere it is needed (likely in France). But it would be at a price, since France+Britain vs. Italy= Italian fleet on the bottom of the sea.
However, the premises of the TL seem to point towards Italian neutrality - at the beginning at least.

Yeah, the Italians are pretty leery of having to fight Austria by themselves, but at the same time the Royal Navy and the French Marine are even scarier. Italy's got other interests and is well advised to stay out of the fighting for now. They won't be showing up for awhile.

 

[lukedalton]

Yeah, the Italians are pretty leery of having to fight Austria by themselves, but at the same time the Royal Navy and the French Marine are even scarier. Italy's got other interests and is well advised to stay out of the fighting for now. They won't be showing up for awhile.

Italy face the same problem that faced in OTL, the war was too soon after the conflict with the turks (and here there is the problem of Ethiopia).
The nation don't have the resource to rearm quick enough to partecipate at the conflict, this was one of the big reason that, in OTL, keep Italy neutral in the initial phase of the war.
The goverment will probably try to get some concession from the A-H or at least get some money making business with both parts, continue pacification of Lybia and Ethiopia and see how things develop

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I must say that this has been an extremely fascinating TL so far but I am curious to what you plan to do with the Schlieffen Plan, which seems a very logical plan to knock France out of the war quickly

 

[Super_Cool]

Can we get a map of the different alliances in Eurasia?

 

[Admiral Matt]

I must say that this has been an extremely fascinating TL so far but I am curious to what you plan to do with the Schlieffen Plan, which seems a very logical plan to knock France out of the war quickly

I'd think it was a needless risk with the Russian threat removed.

 

[Mac Gregor]

Can we get a map of the different alliances in Eurasia?

I second that.

Great job so far. Keep it up!

 

[machine3589]

Love the TL. I eagerly await updates.

 

[Sarantapechaina]

Can we get a map of the different alliances in Eurasia?

I second that.

Great job so far. Keep it up!

I guess that's fair.

Bear in mind that this is a Winkel Tripel map, so it's kinda meh. The timeline end state map was just finished and should be much prettier - it's equirectangular, larger, features bathymetry, relief, and cities, and so forth. Doesn't have that glow, either. Should be passable though.

 

[imperialaquila]

Interesting.

 

[Falecius]

Why does Japan control Karafuto?