Into the Cincoverse - The Cinco de Mayo EU Thread and Wikibox Repository

I'm assuming that both major parties haven't sorted ideologically like they did OTL. While they're in the minority in their respective parties there's still a progressive wing of Liberals and a conservative wing of the Dems. I can see abortion and the death penalty being issues that splits the parties - conservative Dems vote with conservative Libs and progressive Libs vote with progressive Dems.
Not to OTL’s extent, no.

And, yes, definitely. Bear in mind that before the late 1970s abortion was a “Catholic issue” and sans Falwell et al it likely remains so, so the median Dem is probably more skeptical of it than the median Lib (though I can tip my hand it’s not a major debate in present day politics)
Thinking about this more and more on the train ride in to the office and I'm starting to get convinced Libs are due a run of dominance, at least at the top of the ticket, in 2024 and 2028. They seem to have cracked the code and the new post-industrial workforce leans Lib. Their dads and moms might be rock-ribbed Democrats, but whatever we're calling the Millennials ITTL aren't.
That’s a decent point - the 50+ cohort ITTL is probably a much more Dem cohort. Especially since if you were born in 1974 (to keep the math) easy your first election was probably voting for Redford at the tail of the Long Eighties, much as the early 1960s cohort OTL were formed by Reaganism
Even in a country that has a stronger union presence and less deindustrialization I can't see Libs not doing well in the same commuter suburbs that have largely shifted left OTL. There's still millions of office workers who aren't in unions, live in suburbs, have college degrees, aren't very religious, and have no reason not to vote Lib year in and year out without the realignment of the 2010s/2020s.

I know you've mentioned Dems do decent in rural America but I'm not sure that's enough to offset them probably getting rocked in the suburbs. Places like DuPage Co, IL, which until very recently were GOP strongholds for decades before the mid to late 2010s, would stay Liberal here and probably by double digits. Same for places like Oakland Co, MI and especially Orange Co, CA.
Orange County would definitely stay a pretty “no Dems need apply” part of the country (same with greater Phoenix or the Philly burbs that serve as TTL’s NoVA equivalent) but the demographic mix of Midwestern suburbs is probably narrowly lean Lib, but more similar to OTL Toronto’s swinginess in its collar counties. That’s what I’ve been using as my head-canon comparison at least
 
Well of course!

The US does too, for that matter; it’s a major factor for the ICP’s core support
With Canada breaking in half, is there any significant political support in the US for grabbing the Maritimes or even grabbing all of the remainder of Canada? Without Quebec, Canada is a lot more palatable and one or two small maritimes even more so. I don't know if grabbing New Brunswick (for example) would be something that would divide Parties? Also, would the voters in Canada lean toward one US Political Party or the other. iotl, grabbing all of English Canada would help the Democrats (Alberta ends up Republican, but the other eight, I think Democrats), but from the discussion, I can't tell at this point. With the UK and US not nearly as close ittl, that makes it more difficult, but would definitely *not* be viewed as stabbing a friend.
Also, because this made me think of Clive Cussler's Night Probe. I think it would be interesting to have Crimea be the last war for the UK that wasn't a colonial revolution (or whatever South Africa was)
 
Orange County would definitely stay a pretty “no Dems need apply” part of the country (same with greater Phoenix or the Philly burbs that serve as TTL’s NoVA equivalent) but the demographic mix of Midwestern suburbs is probably narrowly lean Lib, but more similar to OTL Toronto’s swinginess in its collar counties. That’s what I’ve been using as my head-canon comparison at least
Also, and this doesn't matter since there's no Electoral College, but there are probably far more swing states in this USA as opposed to OTL. OTL we have six (seven if you squint and add NC) whereas ITTL there can easily be a dozen states that bounce back and forth between the two parties every four years.
 
Mark Holland's Liberals to lead a government for the first time since their 1993 wipeout. As the campaign formally kicks off, some questions that Canadians will face:
Are the Libs only going to get two seats? 🤔
If Julian failed at one task that his voters had hoped for, it was passing proportional representation or, barring that, single-transferable vote, which is how American elections are operated since 1996 and which has taken off as a popular option in many Canadian municipalities.
State and Federal or only federal?
 
With Canada breaking in half, is there any significant political support in the US for grabbing the Maritimes or even grabbing all of the remainder of Canada? Without Quebec, Canada is a lot more palatable and one or two small maritimes even more so. I don't know if grabbing New Brunswick (for example) would be something that would divide Parties? Also, would the voters in Canada lean toward one US Political Party or the other. iotl, grabbing all of English Canada would help the Democrats (Alberta ends up Republican, but the other eight, I think Democrats), but from the discussion, I can't tell at this point. With the UK and US not nearly as close ittl, that makes it more difficult, but would definitely *not* be viewed as stabbing a friend.
Also, because this made me think of Clive Cussler's Night Probe. I think it would be interesting to have Crimea be the last war for the UK that wasn't a colonial revolution (or whatever South Africa was)
By the 1990s, there's no functional constituency for annexing parts of Canada in the US, and there'd be marginally more support for that outcome in the Maritimes amongst locals rather than anywhere else. Bear in mind there's a sentiment that NAFTA and Free Association are the economic version of annexation on both sides of the border

Canadians skew more conservative ITTL than their OTL counterparts and the average American so it'd probably be an L-leaning polity were it to be absorbed, though Ontario and BC are probably D-leaning on net, Quebec absolutely so, Maritimes its harder to say
Also, and this doesn't matter since there's no Electoral College, but there are probably far more swing states in this USA as opposed to OTL. OTL we have six (seven if you squint and add NC) whereas ITTL there can easily be a dozen states that bounce back and forth between the two parties every four years.
A dozen sounds about right at the Presidential level, though Senate and Governor races are probably way more volatile without every election boiling down to culture war existentialism. There'd also be a lot more states with versions of OTL Illinois, where one party controlling the executive and one party controlling the legislature is seen as the "norm"
Cool; the next Canadian election in this timeline is on my 35th birthday.
Happy early birthday!
How Socially conservative is Kevin O Leary ittl?
He's a Social Liberal and Fiscal Conservative iotl.
Probably a tad more socially conservative than OTL since Canada ITTL is more conservative and gay rights especially are probably 15-20 years behind where we're at.
Are the Libs only going to get two seats? 🤔

State and Federal or only federal?
Lol no not that bad.

My thinking is the RCV is standard at all levels.
 
Canada ITTL is more conservative and gay rights especially are probably 15-20 years behind where we're at.
How's culture war stuff in Canada's Conservative party ittl?(By conservative I mean Conservatives excluding Reform and Canadian Action). They are pretty socially liberal, only distingushing from Liberals by conservatism in finance.
 
Last edited:
My thinking is the RCV is standard at all levels.
Now I'm starting to wonder the real mechanics of how RCV is adopted.

Firstly, what elections does it apply to? We know it applies to House elections, but it has been unclear if it applies to Senate and presidential ones too. Based on what you say here, it seems that it does, which gets into the how of its approval: via law or constitutional amendment? And which version is it: AV, IRV, or something else?

A constitutional amendment is almost certainly required IMO. Firstly, elections are something that are generally considered to be under the purview of the states, even the manner of how congressional elections are held (see: Alaska adopting top-four RCV runoffs, Maine adopting IRV, California and Washington doing a top-two primary, Louisiana doing a jungle primary, most southern states having runoffs). So to force a universal adoption of RCV, you probably need to force it constitutionally. Secondly, depending on how the amendments that adopted direct elections of senators and abolished the EC were phrased, this could also cause issues, although it's likely secondary to the whole "states run elections thing."

Now, gaining the required three-quarters of states does probably imply widespread support of the system, and I could see states adopting such election systems like Maine and Alaska did IRL as being something of an experiment that eventually takes off and results in a constitutional amendment (kind of like women's suffrage and prohibition). The thing is, I don't see an amendment that forces the states to adopt RCV, especially a specific kind of RCV, on the state level as being able to pass (too much of an infringement on states' rights), even in states that otherwise have adopted RCV themselves (and I could see a variance of which RCV system states adopt too, before the federally-adopted one is able to become the standard; hell, maybe even one state does a southern-style (heh), Bayh-Celler runoff system,). So IMO, even after the amendment is passed, you likely see states that opposed the amendment obstinately cling onto FPTP voting system they have (and even among some that do approve the amendment), even if over time the amount of states without RCV is trending downward.

TL;DR: I think it's likely at least one state refuses to operate on RCV at the state level, even if RCV at the federal level has been the norm for decades, and that some states do IRV while others do AV and so on and so forth, no matter which solution the federal level chooses.
 
Is this true for everywhere globally?
Yeah, some places even more so.
How's culture war stuff in Canada's Conservative party ittl?(By conservative I mean Conservatives excluding Reform and Canadian Action). They are pretty socially liberal, only distingushing from Liberals by conservatism in finance.
They’re much more traditionally conservative thanks to the Orange Anglican hierarchy
Now I'm starting to wonder the real mechanics of how RCV is adopted.

Firstly, what elections does it apply to? We know it applies to House elections, but it has been unclear if it applies to Senate and presidential ones too. Based on what you say here, it seems that it does, which gets into the how of its approval: via law or constitutional amendment? And which version is it: AV, IRV, or something else?

A constitutional amendment is almost certainly required IMO. Firstly, elections are something that are generally considered to be under the purview of the states, even the manner of how congressional elections are held (see: Alaska adopting top-four RCV runoffs, Maine adopting IRV, California and Washington doing a top-two primary, Louisiana doing a jungle primary, most southern states having runoffs). So to force a universal adoption of RCV, you probably need to force it constitutionally. Secondly, depending on how the amendments that adopted direct elections of senators and abolished the EC were phrased, this could also cause issues, although it's likely secondary to the whole "states run elections thing."

Now, gaining the required three-quarters of states does probably imply widespread support of the system, and I could see states adopting such election systems like Maine and Alaska did IRL as being something of an experiment that eventually takes off and results in a constitutional amendment (kind of like women's suffrage and prohibition). The thing is, I don't see an amendment that forces the states to adopt RCV, especially a specific kind of RCV, on the state level as being able to pass (too much of an infringement on states' rights), even in states that otherwise have adopted RCV themselves (and I could see a variance of which RCV system states adopt too, before the federally-adopted one is able to become the standard; hell, maybe even one state does a southern-style (heh), Bayh-Celler runoff system,). So IMO, even after the amendment is passed, you likely see states that opposed the amendment obstinately cling onto FPTP voting system they have (and even among some that do approve the amendment), even if over time the amount of states without RCV is trending downward.

TL;DR: I think it's likely at least one state refuses to operate on RCV at the state level, even if RCV at the federal level has been the norm for decades, and that some states do IRV while others do AV and so on and so forth, no matter which solution the federal level chooses.
Some good points! My thinking was that the version used is STV, like Australia - it’s the easiest version of RCV to implement IMO

And yeah you’d def need an amendment to pull this off
 
OTL: Gay marriage

Cincoverse: The gays can do what?
Basically.

Bear in mind that the push for marriage equality is downstream of OTL’s AIDS crisis and that with a different set of circumstances (and a different internal gay culture in a world sans WW2, which is the reason SF is such a LGBT city) it here may be a lessor priority for the community
Can you explain what is meant by "traditionally conservative " in this context?
God King and Country
 
Yeah, some places even more so.

They’re much more traditionally conservative thanks to the Orange Anglican hierarchy

Some good points! My thinking was that the version used is STV, like Australia - it’s the easiest version of RCV to implement IMO

And yeah you’d def need an amendment to pull this off
Presuming the CEW isn't done by January 1, 1920, I'd *love* to see a comparison of what areas of the planet (including Empires) have a monarch ittl vs. otl on Jan 1.
Of the top of my head, the following areas of the world have a monarch in 1920 that don't have in our world:
*Mexico
*Cuba
*Brazil
*French Guiana
*France
*Germany
*All of the AH Empire, minus Hungary
*All of the Russian Empire including Finland and Poland
*French Empire in Africa
*French Empire in Asia, FIC and Formosa(?)
*Philippines - US ownership vs. the UK/FR/GE co-dominion.
I'm not sure there is any place in the other direction. I don't think the US/Canada border discussions in Alaska were mentioned, and even so, the chances of the US getting more than Otl are slight.
 
Presuming the CEW isn't done by January 1, 1920, I'd *love* to see a comparison of what areas of the planet (including Empires) have a monarch ittl vs. otl on Jan 1.
Of the top of my head, the following areas of the world have a monarch in 1920 that don't have in our world:
*Mexico
*Cuba
*Brazil
*French Guiana
*France
*Germany
*All of the AH Empire, minus Hungary
*All of the Russian Empire including Finland and Poland
*French Empire in Africa
*French Empire in Asia, FIC and Formosa(?)
*Philippines - US ownership vs. the UK/FR/GE co-dominion.
Don't forget Hawaii, Portugal, Manchuria...
I'm not sure there is any place in the other direction. I don't think the US/Canada border discussions in Alaska were mentioned, and even so, the chances of the US getting more than Otl are slight.
The Boer states?
 
Sometime in the future, can you please provide a list of World Series champions? Only if it doesn’t spoil anything.
I was debating doing a “MLB dynasties ranked” post of some kind so a lot of that probably gets covered there but I can throw together a full list sometime (I have it in my iPhone notes)
Presuming the CEW isn't done by January 1, 1920, I'd *love* to see a comparison of what areas of the planet (including Empires) have a monarch ittl vs. otl on Jan 1.
Of the top of my head, the following areas of the world have a monarch in 1920 that don't have in our world:
*Mexico
*Cuba
*Brazil
*French Guiana
*France
*Germany
*All of the AH Empire, minus Hungary
*All of the Russian Empire including Finland and Poland
*French Empire in Africa
*French Empire in Asia, FIC and Formosa(?)
*Philippines - US ownership vs. the UK/FR/GE co-dominion.
I'm not sure there is any place in the other direction. I don't think the US/Canada border discussions in Alaska were mentioned, and even so, the chances of the US getting more than Otl are slight.
Without commenting on specifics that’s a pretty comprehensive list. Certainly a much more monarchical world.

Philippines are very pointedly a republic, though.

The US/Canada dispute was briefly covered in the Hay/Chamberlain era but it was quickly resolved
Don't forget Hawaii, Portugal, Manchuria...
Very important inclusions
 
I was debating doing a “MLB dynasties ranked” post of some kind so a lot of that probably gets covered there but I can throw together a full list sometime (I have it in my iPhone notes)

Without commenting on specifics that’s a pretty comprehensive list. Certainly a much more monarchical world.

Philippines are very pointedly a republic, though.

The US/Canada dispute was briefly covered in the Hay/Chamberlain era but it was quickly resolved

Very important inclusions
However, to be fair, because of the different timing, 1920 is after our european monarchical empires destruction in WWI and before anything like that in the CEW.
 
Top