Not to OTL’s extent, no.I'm assuming that both major parties haven't sorted ideologically like they did OTL. While they're in the minority in their respective parties there's still a progressive wing of Liberals and a conservative wing of the Dems. I can see abortion and the death penalty being issues that splits the parties - conservative Dems vote with conservative Libs and progressive Libs vote with progressive Dems.
And, yes, definitely. Bear in mind that before the late 1970s abortion was a “Catholic issue” and sans Falwell et al it likely remains so, so the median Dem is probably more skeptical of it than the median Lib (though I can tip my hand it’s not a major debate in present day politics)
That’s a decent point - the 50+ cohort ITTL is probably a much more Dem cohort. Especially since if you were born in 1974 (to keep the math) easy your first election was probably voting for Redford at the tail of the Long Eighties, much as the early 1960s cohort OTL were formed by ReaganismThinking about this more and more on the train ride in to the office and I'm starting to get convinced Libs are due a run of dominance, at least at the top of the ticket, in 2024 and 2028. They seem to have cracked the code and the new post-industrial workforce leans Lib. Their dads and moms might be rock-ribbed Democrats, but whatever we're calling the Millennials ITTL aren't.
Orange County would definitely stay a pretty “no Dems need apply” part of the country (same with greater Phoenix or the Philly burbs that serve as TTL’s NoVA equivalent) but the demographic mix of Midwestern suburbs is probably narrowly lean Lib, but more similar to OTL Toronto’s swinginess in its collar counties. That’s what I’ve been using as my head-canon comparison at leastEven in a country that has a stronger union presence and less deindustrialization I can't see Libs not doing well in the same commuter suburbs that have largely shifted left OTL. There's still millions of office workers who aren't in unions, live in suburbs, have college degrees, aren't very religious, and have no reason not to vote Lib year in and year out without the realignment of the 2010s/2020s.
I know you've mentioned Dems do decent in rural America but I'm not sure that's enough to offset them probably getting rocked in the suburbs. Places like DuPage Co, IL, which until very recently were GOP strongholds for decades before the mid to late 2010s, would stay Liberal here and probably by double digits. Same for places like Oakland Co, MI and especially Orange Co, CA.