Into the Cincoverse - The Cinco de Mayo EU Thread and Wikibox Repository

[KingSweden24]

The Beertown Blues is a colloquial term for the frequent postseason debacles of the Milwaukee Braves, a member of Major League Baseball's National League in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The term came into existence in the late 1990s and early 2000s to describe a series of inexplicable bad luck for the team, which at the time was among the most consistent regular season performers of the time; the term was resuscitated again in the late 2010s and early 2020s as the Braves returned to prominence.

After a long history as one of the National League's doormats, the Braves between 1993 and 2005 appeared in the MLB playoffs every year save 2001 and became the first team since the Boston Red Sox of the 1970s to win four straight pennants, appearing in four World Series from 1996-99; unlike the Fortress Fenway Red Sox, however, the Braves only won their first of those four, defeating the then-defending champion Cleveland Indians 4-2, with the decisive Game 6 being the last-ever played at Milwaukee's Municipal Park; starting in 1997, the Braves moved to the adjacent Pabst Park. Superstitious Braves fans became convinced that Pabst Park was cursed, either by (allegedly) Chicago Cubs-supporting construction workers or by Native Americans upset at the use of iconography they found offensive. The Braves would be defeated in seven games in a rematch with the Indians in 1997, with the final game once again in Milwaukee. The "Blues" worsened the next two years, as the Braves, despite owning the best record in the MLB both years, were upset by the Seattle Rainiers in five games in 1998 and the New York Yankees in five in 1999, losing both final games again at Pabst, with a minor riot breaking out in the stands during the latter series as the Yankees were awarded the trophy.

For Braves fans, this would eventually come to be the high point of the franchise, as they were swept in both the 2004 and 2005 NLCS by the Padres and Cardinals, respectively, and they would not appear in the playoffs again until 2010, when they were again swept in the NLCS by the Padres. With disappointing appearances in the 2011-13 playoffs, the Braves failed to advance for the next three years, during which major renovations were done to Pabst Park, and in 2017 the Braves, despite only winning 86 games and being the fifth seed in the playoffs, managed to win the World Series for the first time in 21 years 4-3 over the Twins, winning away from Pabst. This would mark the start of a new run of high hopes and frustration, however; they would lose the 2018 NLCS 4-3 to their archrival Cubs (who went on to win their second World Series in three years) and thus lose again a chance at a repeat World Series. The term "Beertown Blues" was resuscitated in 2023, when the Braves had arguably their most talented roster since the 1990s, won 100 games and the 2nd seed in the playoffs, and were promptly swept by the Diamondbacks in the NLDS.

While the "Beertown Blues" is regarded as an in-joke in Milwaukee, baseball commentators note that the Braves, who have one of the more modest league payrolls, are not a disappointing team but rather one that using a well-developed farm system and disciplined management has punched above its weight for close to thirty years as a consistent playoff contender with two World Series titles while rich teams like the Yankees or Red Sox have only one apiece during that same stretch (1999 and 1994, respectively) and that rather than a curse denying them postseason glory, the club is a remarkable overperformer considering its resources.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

This would mark the start of a new run of high hopes and frustration, however; they would lose the 2018 NLCS 4-3 to their archrival Cubs (who went on to win their second World Series in three years)

Also, as a Cubs fan let me tell you that the rivalry only really goes one way. Brewers fans (and the organization) live to beat the Cubs while the Cubs don't really care - we just like taking over Miller Park because they got good food and parking.

Put it this way:

The Cubs are the University of Michigan
The Cardinals are Ohio State
The Brewers (and White Sox for that matter) are Michigan State.

Sparty's biggest rival is Michigan, but Michigan has bigger fish to fry.

 

[KingSweden24]

Knew you'd be jazzed haha

Also, as a Cubs fan let me tell you that the rivalry only really goes one way. Brewers fans (and the organization) live to beat the Cubs while the Cubs don't really care - we just like taking over Miller Park because they got good food and parking.

Put it this way:

The Cubs are the University of Michigan
The Cardinals are Ohio State
The Brewers (and White Sox for that matter) are Michigan State.

Sparty's biggest rival is Michigan, but Michigan has bigger fish to fry.

Oh, for sure. Good comp, too.

Though I imagine that TTL it's a little less lopsided if this pastiche of the Brewers and Atlanta Braves had a 1993-05 run like the OTL Braves, though the Cubs would almost certainly still be far and away the top dogs.

 

[BearBear91]

Are the Red Sox supposed to resemble a baseball version of the OTL Montreal Canadiens because all I’m really waiting for at this point is that they left their god-like starting pitcher in too long ala Patrick Roy?

 

[KingSweden24]

Are the Red Sox supposed to resemble a baseball version of the OTL Montreal Canadiens because all I’m really waiting for at this point is that they left their god-like starting pitcher in too long ala Patrick Roy?

Kind of…? ITTL they have the most World Series titles and dominant dynasties in the 1910s, 1940s and of course 1970s

 

[VengefulWaffle]

How are the (Brooklyn I think?) Dodgers doing? Did Vin Scully stick around?

 

[KingSweden24]

How are the (Brooklyn I think?) Dodgers doing? Did Vin Scully stick around?

Dodgers have the second-most WS titles behind the Red Sox and ahead of the Cubs in third. Also by far the most NL pennants (they’ve lost a ton of WS whereas the Cubs win more often than not when they qualify). They may also have the winningest records by games won of the whole MLb

And yes you gotta have Vin Scully stay in Brooklyn!

 

[ElfNoble]

Will there be any 10 cent beer night and the subsequent riot at baseball games in this time line

 

[Beatriz]

We haven’t mentioned modern Tibet or Xinjiang yet

 

[mortonofski]

Will there be any 10 cent beer night and the subsequent riot at baseball games in this time line

It's the Cincoverse. I'm sure the damage to Cleveland Stadium would be irreparable

 

[Curtain Jerker]

All this is to say that the boiling summer of 2024 portends a grim future of economic stagnation and upheaval in regions affected by a warming Earth and electorates unhappy even with governments that make efforts to address it. It speaks particularly ill for liberalism, as harsher solutions are demanded and autocratic movements take advantage of public discontent, and the refugee crises of tomorrow could further fuel massive discontent.

Re-reading a few older articles during some downtime and I think I'm on Team Sandoval in 2024. Is it because I am like Saul on the road to Damascus and have seen the light and am genuinely converting to the Liberal Party or is it because I'm increasingly convinced that 2024 is a poisoned chalice of an election and I want the Libs to win only to crash and burn in the next few years leading to the Democrats romping in 2026/2028? Who can say? But either way, let's go Sandoval!

 

[KingSweden24]

Will there be any 10 cent beer night and the subsequent riot at baseball games in this time line

If anything there’d be more incidents like that more frequently

We haven’t mentioned modern Tibet or Xinjiang yet

No we haven’t

Re-reading a few older articles during some downtime and I think I'm on Team Sandoval in 2024. Is it because I am like Saul on the road to Damascus and have seen the light and am genuinely converting to the Liberal Party or is it because I'm increasingly convinced that 2024 is a poisoned chalice of an election and I want the Libs to win only to crash and burn in the next few years leading to the Democrats romping in 2026/2028? Who can say? But either way, let's go Sandoval!

Bear in mind that since 1900 the Democrats have won three terms in a row four times, and the Libs have only done so once (in 1900, incidentally)…

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Bear in mind that since 1900 the Democrats have won three terms in a row four times, and the Libs have only done so once (in 1900, incidentally)…

We'll cross the 2028 bridge when we get there. Then again, it feels like the Libs are due a run of dominance, especially given that they've cracked the code out West.

Also, convenient that you started in 1900 because that disregards the de facto one-party state that was the USA from 1880 to 1900.

 

[KingSweden24]

We'll cross the 2028 bridge when we get there. Then again, it feels like the Libs are due a run of dominance, especially given that they've cracked the code out West.

Also, convenient that you started in 1900 because that disregards the de facto one-party state that was the USA from 1880 to 1900.

Ha, fair! Thought going with the post-GAW political alignment skews the data even more

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Ha, fair! Thought going with the post-GAW political alignment skews the data even more

I'm curious as to what each side's coalition consists of as of 2024. I think (key word) it is something like the following:

Liberals - WASPs, right-center ideological conservatives (not far right, "near" right), post-graduate degree holders, Blacks, rich upper-middle class (doctors, lawyers, etc), management/entrepreneurs. Tech/knowledge workers?
Democrats - Ethnic whites, especially 1st/2nd generation immigrants, Catholics and other non-Protestant Christians, union people (more blue collar unions, think UAW as opposed to say PATCO), center-left progressives ("near" left, what we'd call OTL small L liberals as opposed to leftists), city dwellers (this is probably contingent on the city and is case by case)

Feels like Libs are strong out West (mirroring how the South went from solid D to solid R) and Dems are strong in say Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and maybe New York/New Jersey?

 

[Devoid]

Also, we know the Greens do well in modern-day US politics, but what about the Socialists? Did the Greens take the mantle of left-of-the-Democrats party for themselves, or do the Socialists still exist (say, in Milwaukee)?

 

[KingSweden24]

I'm curious as to what each side's coalition consists of as of 2024. I think (key word) it is something like the following:

Liberals - WASPs, right-center ideological conservatives (not far right, "near" right), post-graduate degree holders, Blacks, rich upper-middle class (doctors, lawyers, etc), management/entrepreneurs. Tech/knowledge workers?
Democrats - Ethnic whites, especially 1st/2nd generation immigrants, Catholics and other non-Protestant Christians, union people (more blue collar unions, think UAW as opposed to say PATCO), center-left progressives ("near" left, what we'd call OTL small L liberals as opposed to leftists), city dwellers (this is probably contingent on the city and is case by case)

That sounds about right. Bear in mind without the South's particular religious and racial predilictions being exported northwards via church networks and then AM radio, places like rural New England would remain firmly Liberal, and a lot of suburban "New Dem" types from OTL probably stay Liberal what with the party being well to the left of OTL Republicans.

Feels like Libs are strong out West (mirroring how the South went from solid D to solid R) and Dems are strong in say Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and maybe New York/New Jersey?

Yes, I'd say so. Pennsylvania still has its residual Liberal strength, though, and much of the West Coast has shifted back towards Democrats over time even as the interior West has largely become Lib/ICP

Also, we know the Greens do well in modern-day US politics, but what about the Socialists? Did the Greens take the mantle of left-of-the-Democrats party for themselves, or do the Socialists still exist (say, in Milwaukee)?

The Greens are a mix of left and center, with environmentalism less left-coded IOTL (think Aussie Teals, for example).

And yes, the Socialists are still around in their strongholds; one reason they've succeeded is that they have a century of experience acting as a governing partner to Democrats rather than as their rival, and they compete for different voters in places where Liberals or the Greens are weak (and maybe even sometimes on ICP turf). RCV does a lot of that work; Greens and Socialists are speaking to two very different crowds.

This is all in an effort to give the US a more European-style political spectrum, with the far-right (ICP), center/center-right (Libs), traditional center-left (Dems), left (Socialists) and centerish-left bobo New Age environmental types (Greens) who don't fit well within the more traditional center-left, Catholic and union-dominated Dems but also find the Libs too capitalist for them.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

That sounds about right. Bear in mind without the South's particular religious and racial predilictions being exported northwards via church networks and then AM radio, places like rural New England would remain firmly Liberal, and a lot of suburban "New Dem" types from OTL probably stay Liberal what with the party being well to the left of OTL Republicans.

I'm assuming that both major parties haven't sorted ideologically like they did OTL. While they're in the minority in their respective parties there's still a progressive wing of Liberals and a conservative wing of the Dems. I can see abortion and the death penalty being issues that splits the parties - conservative Dems vote with conservative Libs and progressive Libs vote with progressive Dems.

Yes, I'd say so. Pennsylvania still has its residual Liberal strength, though, and much of the West Coast has shifted back towards Democrats over time even as the interior West has largely become Lib/ICP

Thinking about this more and more on the train ride in to the office and I'm starting to get convinced Libs are due a run of dominance, at least at the top of the ticket, in 2024 and 2028. They seem to have cracked the code and the new post-industrial workforce leans Lib. Their dads and moms might be rock-ribbed Democrats, but whatever we're calling the Millennials ITTL aren't.

Even in a country that has a stronger union presence and less deindustrialization I can't see Libs not doing well in the same commuter suburbs that have largely shifted left OTL. There's still millions of office workers who aren't in unions, live in suburbs, have college degrees, aren't very religious, and have no reason not to vote Lib year in and year out without the realignment of the 2010s/2020s.

I know you've mentioned Dems do decent in rural America but I'm not sure that's enough to offset them probably getting rocked in the suburbs. Places like DuPage Co, IL, which until very recently were GOP strongholds for decades before the mid to late 2010s, would stay Liberal here and probably by double digits. Same for places like Oakland Co, MI and especially Orange Co, CA.

 

[KingSweden24]

And We're Off - Writ Dropped for September 26th Election

Nobody has ever accused Peter Julian of being stupid, and he's known for a whole year that he would like to hold an election if not in June then early in the fall of 2024, once the summer break for schools are over and Canadians can really absorb a general election campaign. And so, with his preferred date of Thursday, September 26 falling within the proscribed 45-60 day rule for calling an election (albeit just barely), we have our date, and the race now really begins.

Although it's already begun, years ago, arguably as results from British Columbia trickled in in October 2020 showing that both Jim Moore of the Tories and Mark Strahl of Reform, the respective party leaders, were losing (albeit very narrowly in the case of the latter) and that the Liberals had surged to their best results in over a generation. 2024 will mark the tenth election since the 1991 Quebec referendum that broke the Confederation and saw Quebec and the Maritimes exit; perhaps not coincidentally, it marks the opportunity, and a good one, for Mark Holland's Liberals to lead a government for the first time since their 1993 wipeout. As the campaign formally kicks off, some questions that Canadians will face:

Reform and Canadian Action - Cannibalizing Votes?

If Julian failed at one task that his voters had hoped for, it was passing proportional representation or, barring that, single-transferable vote, which is how American elections are operated since 1996 and which has taken off as a popular option in many Canadian municipalities. That may not be a bad thing for 2024, however, with both of Canada's right-wing to far-right parties in Reform and Canadian Action likely to eat each other alive. Canadian Action, of course, is a conspiratorial outfit, demanding a withdrawal by Canada from the Free Association Treaty with the United States, the suspension of NAFTA visas, a blanket 20% tariff on all incoming goods, and has expressed skepticism if not hostility to basic public health and safety measures oft taken for granted. Reform, for its part, has shifted a great deal from its post-Progressive rural populist posture and Western protest party to lean heavily on social conservatism, ditching hierarchical Orangeism usually associated with the Canadian religious right for radically fundamentalist free churches in Alberta and Saskatchewan and proposing the repeal of gay-friendly laws. Both parties are skeptical of Canada's current federal abortion regime, suggesting that it be returned to the governance of the various provinces (essentially banning it in the Prairies); Reform leader Danielle Smith has for her part proposed a moratorium on wind and solar power permitting. While CAP saw a great deal of its success in post-industrial Ontario four years ago, its second best province was Alberta, Reform's traditional heartland, and Smith has made clear that she does not intend to honor the traditional "gentleman's agreement" with the Tories to not compete in Ontarian ridings, primarily so she can go after CAP. Together, these parties held 39 seats cumulatively; CAP, seemingly having peaked and with Reform positioning to its right under Smith, will likely see its share of such a count dramatically decrease, though Reform might not do much better. The far-right may have a very rough night on 9/26 if it cannot coordinate.

O'Leary and the Tories - Resurgence or Retreat?

Since winning the late 2021 Conservative leadership election, nobody has been quite sure what to make of Kevin O'Leary. The businessman and colorful television personality has made noises about social liberalism while advocating for across-the-board tax cuts, reforms to the immigration system to further prioritize skilled and educated immigrants, and a "revolutionary" housing permitting reform that would keep up with Canada's mounting housing costs despite its slow-growing economy. If that sounds a bit like Mark Holland's platform, fear not; O'Leary also wants to fire thousands of civil servants, slash regulations, boost spending on the Canadian Armed Forces to 3% of GDP, renegotiate major union contracts with the Canadian Federation of Nurses and Educators Canada despite such typically being provincial provenance, and in a nod to Brian Sandoval south of the border he wants to ditch Canada's federal cap-and-trade scheme but unlike him has no plan to replace it with a general carbon price; while he's at it, he proposed suspending tax credits rolled out by the Julian government to reduce child poverty. The polling boost enjoyed by O'Leary through much of 2022 has evaporated, and public perception of him as a heartless businessman who probably fired your dad has mounted despite his personal popularity on social media. Nonetheless, the Tories were in government at this time four years ago and have traditionally been able to recalibrate and bounce back from electoral defeats, even if the Big Blue Machine is a shadow of her old self. For a party that long prided itself on cultivating talent internally and having its partisans rise through the ranks via various pressure points of gatekeeping, O'Leary is an unorthodox Tory leader, to say the least. But he is also leader in an unorthodox time, and that could come to his advantage, especially if votes are split between Reform and CAP to his right and either Julian or Holland fade in crucial near-rural or suburban seats where Tories typically excel.

Mark Holland - The Chosen One?

Perhaps no leader's star has ever burned as bright as Jack Layton's, and unfortunately for Peter Julian, the closest thing this election has to its own "People's Jack" is in fact Mark Holland, now going on eleven years as Liberal leader after taking the party over following its moribund 2012 election, entering Parliament in 2016 on an improvement and then tying the Tories for second-place and granting Julian limited supply the last four years. Holland is only fifty but looks and acts much younger, and despite having been a staple of the political scene in Kingston for a decade now still seems fresh. His transformation of the Liberals from a minor party to a potential party of government has been nothing short of astounding, and he narrowly leads in people's preferred Prime Minister polls even as the CCF enters the race clinging to a thin margin of error lead. Holland's vision for Canada is an ambitious one - one which takes advantage of its access to the larger American and Mexican markets in addition to the Commonwealth through high-tech manufacturing, software development, and natural resources, rather than just serving as, he put it, a "a resource colony and offshore finance hub." He wants to arrest the spikes in Canadian real estate prices over the last five years by making it harder for overseas residents to purchase homes here; he also has proposed automation taxes, a doubling in expenditures on Canadian universities and secondary schools, and an ambitious infrastructure plan to update Canada's crumbling roads and bridges and outdated airports and transit systems. If the election was held today, Holland's Liberals would likely form a minority government with support from the CCF; Holland has stated emphatically that he wants a "new Canada" that goes beyond the Layton years and the anger of the 1990s, and for that he would like to have a majority. Only Layton in 2008 and the Tories under Diefenbaker in 1964 have won majority governments in the last sixty years, so Holland is unlikely to change that dynamic, but there is something happening in 2024, and he seems to be at the forefront of it.

The CCF - Onwards and Upwards?

Julian has governed through a difficult period, of recovery from the 2018-20 recession which struck Canada particularly hard but also seeing the country struck by massive housing inflation thanks to the deregulation of the lending and construction sectors during the Moore years, and a flow of American arrivals attracted by a weak Canadian dollar and proximity to their home country and a global influx of money stashing cash in Canadian banks and condo towers. Julian's Premiership has, by CCF standards, been a successful one - he has beefed up healthcare coverage, he stuck his neck out politically to guarantee gay and lesbian rights after the OHRO debacle of 2020 made it a campaign issue, and he has passed a major childcare and tax credit plan to reduce costs for families, including capping daycare expenses at $200 a month through a universal pre-kindergarten program. Canada's economy has grown faster than most Anglosphere peers this year, but Julian nonetheless finds himself in a battle. For one, he now is the sole British Columbian party leader and his minority government has been reliant on its overperformance in BC four years ago that all of Liberals, Tories and Reform look likely to eat into; the perception of a "BC Mafia" of insiders from the Vancouver area steering his policy is one he's never been able to shake. Never the most charismatic of men, Julian will face the media darling Holland and the experienced if bombastic O'Leary, while Smith is a cunning expert in social media virality. He is well-liked personally but his party is held partly responsible for high consumer prices, and his housing plan's complicated subsidies are less attractive to the public than Holland and O'Leary debuting simple but effective slogans. It is rare for a Canadian party to be turned out after a single Parliament, but Julian could find himself as a junior partner to Holland either through confidence or a coalition depending on how their neck-and-neck race turns out; even if this is the end of Julian's Premiership, the CCF soldiers on proud of what it has accomplished, and it would not take much what with the three-way split on the right for the two center and center-left parties to suck up the majority of Parliament between the two of them.

 

[Devoid]

I see Orange Crush Canada even has its own equivalents of Euroskepticism (NAFTAskepticism? Ameroskepticism?)