Instead of a Nazi-American Cold War, a Nazi-Soviet Cold War?

In early 1941, Hitler is convinced that Germany needs to focus on defeating Britain and thus elminating a second front and all but blocking American intervention. So throughout 1941 the Nazis take the Balkans as well as dramatically increasing air support air cover over the Med and the British isles. The Blitz continues but with much bigger raids similar to those in the Eastern front in OTL. By July 1941 the Germans take Malta and shortly after reach the Suez Canal and proceed to march all the way to Jerusalem. Shortly afterwards the Germans reach the Turkish border and more or less force Turkey to join the Axis. The massive air raids on Britian continue and the Luftwaffe manages to get air superiority over southern England to some extent.

Although they are laying waste to British cities and have stepped up raids on convoys Churchill still refuses to surrender however in April a vote of no confidence wins by a slim majority. The new Government agrees to surrender as long as Britains independence of what remains of it's empire is threatened. Hitler is jubilant as are his people, the war with the west is over. Now the war in the East can begin. However by the time the luftwaffe and the majority of the German army have relocated it is late summer and reports on the Red Army claim that it has improved greatly since the summer of 1941 and have mobilised shortly after Britians surrender. With this and the fact the Germans only have 2 months before the terrain becomes difficuly unlike the 6 months envisaged by the original plan Hitler decides to postpone Barbarossa for the April of next year.

Meanwhile with the lack of a western front, Stalin has turned his eyes east and in August 1941 the Red Army take srevnge on Japan and invades Manchuria. Whilst the Soviets do not perform as well as they had in the summer of '39 they manage to take Manchuria and Sahalin by the end of the year and orea the following spring. For the Japanese the Soviet invasion has ruled out any possibility of action against the American and the Europeans as all resources are put into fighting the Soviets. America takes a neutral stance to this but many in the governemnt as well as the US public sometimes openly support either side but seeing as 2 of their greatest foes are bashing each other they do not intervene.

The lack of any German invasion from the West and evidence that the Soviets are preparing to invade Hokkaido leads to the Japnese to surrender by October 1942 and make peace to both the Soviets and the Chinese. Stalin now turns to the west but Stavka informs him that an attck on Germany and her allies would be too risky and would probably lead to a bloody stalemate. Meanwhile the Germans come to the same conclusion and from then onwards defending their giant border from each other takes priority to crossing it for each side as relations slowly worsen.

So the Cold War has begun with the Nazis and the Soviets, both are incredibly owerful and both have allies whilst America and Britain are much weaker than OTL. So how does this pan out?
 
If Stalin's sending enough men and material east to take on Japan, what's stopping Hitler from kicking down his front door?

Even with an isolationalist US, they're still going to be one of the great powers after this war too.
 
If Stalin's sending enough men and material east to take on Japan, what's stopping Hitler from kicking down his front door?

Well historically what the Soviets had defending the border with Japn was overkill, they would need little more than what they already had on the border to crush the Japanese in Manchuria so there would still be the large majoirty of troops on the western front except now they're much better prepare and led. That and a shorter timescale.

Even with an isolationalist US, they're still going to be one of the great powers after this war too.

Yes but they are much weaker compared to what they were at the end of WW2.
 
Yes but they are much weaker compared to what they were at the end of WW2.

That doesn't mean much. Half as powerful as they were at the end of OTL WWII still makes the U.S. the single strongest power. It would take ASB action to make the U.S. not the single strongest power after any WWII with a POD after the mid 30s. So any Nazi-Soviet cold war is going to be rather odd with the giant across the Atlantic looking on.
 
That doesn't mean much. Half as powerful as they were at the end of OTL WWII still makes the U.S. the single strongest power. It would take ASB action to make the U.S. not the single strongest power after any WWII with a POD after the mid 30s. So any Nazi-Soviet cold war is going to be rather odd with the giant across the Atlantic looking on.

The fact that America is separated from both of them by large amounts of water and that ICBM's will come a lot later for them (and the soviets) will somewhat dampen their superiority but I agree with you that the US will eventually overtake both of these powers.
 
They outproduced Europe in 1925, if I recall.

I've admitted that America will win this in the long term, I'm more focusing on the short term. For instance America will not be as powerful militarily as is what as at the end of WW2 and will also not have an immediate bomb project unlike the Nazi's and Soviets. Meanwhile neither the Soviets or the Germans have faced anything like the devastation their countries went through in OTL so will be much more able to compete against America in the short term.
 
I like it,

if the POD of a UK surrender leads a backlash that discredits FDR and the idea of "foriegn entaglements".

Toss in some military fiascos for the untested US military against fascist and/or communist pushes in Latin America in the late 40s, say, maybe a fascit general leads a coup in Panama, followed by US intervention, even by an isolationistic President leading to a three way battle between the US, army guerillas, and communist terrorists. (to keep the idea of foriegn intervention unpleasant).

By the mid 50s I imagine that the global conflict between Nazis and the SU would be so ugly that not getting involved would be sellable to the US voters!



Keep in mind that economic power is only potential power, if not backed by political will and military budgets.

However I think that a Soviet attack on China, God forbid Hokaido, would present Hitler with an irresistable temptation.

I do think that the end of the war with the UK, could have a non-intuitive result in Hitler's mind where he feels the pressure for big gambles would be gone.

Without the exodus of German rocket sciences Germany would have a significant tech edge for some time.

Indeed avoiding a atomic rocket attack on the SU, shortly after the germans get the bomb will take some work.

Hmm, KGB learns of bomb works and the sovs build up a poison gas stockpile big enough to buy time?:confused:
 
Regardless of when the POD is following WWI, the Western Hemisphere and most of the Pacific Rim will be strictly off limits to either the Soviets or the Nazis. Even the staunchest of Republican Isolationists were strong supporters of the Monroe Doctrine and would not have given up America's influence in the Pacific.

That being said, it would be possible to have an America that seems to avoid foreign entanglements while the Soviets and Nazis stare each other down for a decade or two. Of course the OSS would be quiet busy during all of this keeping a lid on South America's fascists and communists. I would bet that there would also be an attempt to keep British and French colonies out of fascist or communist hands, but this may not go as well.

Also, we can not discount America's own rocket programs initiated by Robert Goddard. If assisted by immigrant British rocket scientists America would not lack behind for very long. Besides America had the largest and most advanced aerospace industries in the world.

But given the hatred that existed between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany I think any "cold war" between those two nations would be pretty nasty indeed.

Benjamin
 
Interesting, do you think that the treaty ending the hostilities in Europe could include provisions that would reduce or eliminate Japan's impetus to attack the US?

I'm thinking either getting the Dutch East Indies, or requiring the UK to sell oil to Japan.:confused:
 
This is unrealistic for the following reasons.
1: The British surrender.
2: Stalin choosing to fanny about with Japan despite the massive German superstate on his doorstep.
3: Hitler's intention was always to invade Russia.
 
This is unrealistic for the following reasons.
1: The British surrender.

Pretty unrealistic I agree but Churchill had to go through a vote of no confidence in OTL imagine if the same thing thing happened with massive eastern front style air raids on Britiah cities and the Germans advancing into the Middle East. Also it's not really a surrender more of a cease-fire, Britian will not be occupied nor will it cede any territory except the territory already under Axis occupation.

2: Stalin choosing to fanny about with Japan despite the massive German superstate on his doorstep.

I agree that this to is implausible. However Stalin must have sussed and let's say that decrypted messages have helped him in this conclusion that the main German effort has switched from Russia to the Med and so plans to grab Manchuria whilst the Germans are occupied fighting south.

What I really needed was a reason to eep America out of the war. Keeping them out of Europe is more or less plausible but Japan needs to be handicapped for them not to go to war in the Pacific.

3: Hitler's intention was always to invade Russia.

Not if it was militarily unfeasible.

I know this idea is iffy, every Nazi survival scenario is. I was more interested in the scenario than the feasibility as long as it's somewhat realistic.
 
You would need a far earlier POD, dissuade both sides not to attack each other.

One scenario, someone else succedes Pildusky and Poland launch a full scale attack on the Soviet-Union in spring or summer 1936.
For a time, the Poles seems to far well but when the Soviet-Union fully counter-attack the polish offensive is broken and the red Army start marching west. Germany start mobilizing more than it did historically.
Because of Germany, Stalin does not attempt to seize Warsaw, instead takes back territories taken by Poland in 1920, war ends in early 1937 at the latest. Poland is in political chaos. Fortification lines similar to the maginot line are built along Lithuanian-German and Soviet-German borders. The efforts into that are efforts that doesn´t go in favour of the Spanish republicans, Falangist movement grows faster than historically. Japanese-Chinese war is butterflied away.
Hungarya joins the axis and Austria is annexed in the latter of 1937. German involvement grows in Spain, in the course of 1938 nationalists are victorious, the axis armies help the Falangist depose Franco.
Hitler moves against Czechoslovakia in early 1939, in latter 1939 he negociates with Poland for the return of Dantzig.
In early 1940, the Reich moves against Czechoslovakia, Poland, Romania and Yugoslavia declares war. Britain decides to assist, France mobilises but does not declare war.
In 2 weeks, Czechoslovakia is crushed and axis forces moves toward Romania, parachutists sucessfully captures Ploesti oilfields.
At that time, the French declares war and moves against the Rhineland, which are seized with little problem.
Germany declares total war, an assassination attempt on Hitler fails, allowing Goebbels to partially blame the situation on deranged traitors within the German army.
The French becomes confident after the Rhineland campaign and decides to move even further west, as that occur the bulk of the German army comes back from the east and defeat the French army with blitzkrieg tactics.
By June 1940, French forces have completely retreated to the maginot line, once Rhineland is secured mop-upp operations are resumed against Poland and Yugoslavia, Bulgaria joins the axis.
Between July and August, Danemark and Norway are invaded. The Soviet-Union accelerates the construction of the Western Wall along borders with occupied Poland and Romania.
Roosevelt looses the 1940 elections, the new president cancel the new deal and does not care about europe.
On April 20th 1941, the european axis begin its offensive against Begium, Holland and France.
By may 27th, a military coup is launched against the French governement, the responsibles want peace with Germany. It partially fails, western and southern France faces a short civil war, 1 month later the whole of Metropolitan France is occupied.
By that time, the RAF have been reinforced, battle of Britain is a clear defeat for the axis by July.
Remnants of french civil governement flee to Alger and French troops invades Lybia from Tunisia after Mussolini declares war.
Axis invades turkey in August, to please the Bulgarian, Greeks and Italians. Turkish armies are quickly defeated, then the axis moves into the middle-east, liberates iran and Iraq from imperialist occupation.
1942: The axis secures the whole of Iran, persian Gulf, moves through Saoud Arabia to attack british possessions.
Franco-British forces makes a stand along the Suez canal but are defeated, Panzers races west.
In the course of 1942, the axis seizes North Africa. Hitler cancel any moves against the Soviet-Union, seeing the fortifications constructed along the borders.
Japan joins the axis, quickly moves through Indochina, Myanamar and India where a nationalist revolution takes place.
In latter 1942, axis forces begin a massive advance into central africa, Franco-brits defeated.
In early 1943, Churchill is removed by a coup. Peace treaty a few months later shift much of the French colonies in Africa to the axis backed French governement. Similar situation for Dutch Indonesia and Belgian Congo.
Axis forces shiftes east but faces a massive Red Army, no side dares to attack first. Unlike the maginot line, these fortifications cannot be bypassed through a neutral country and Hitler knows it. The size of the Red Army convinces the european axis to reinforce its own fortified line along its eastern border and construct many new forts in occupied Turkey and Iran. Much assistance is sent to Japan.
Axis forces retreates from much of France, except Paris and the North-Eastern part of the country.
In 1944, axis forces retreates completely from France, except Alsace-Lorraine.
In the USA, intense political troubles prevent any thoughts for interventionism, economical crisis continues and birthrate remaines low.
In 1945, the lost war causes increased political troubles in Britain too, between the conservatives and the socialists. Eventually, Britain starts to become increasingly dependent on Germany.
Only in 1949 does the US gain a governement that competently works to end 20 years of economical marassme.
By that time, britain is definitively siding with the german-lead mutual protection pact against the Soviet-Union.
Just as Germany saw National-Socialism and italy saw Fascisme, the British see their own political movement, which gain power in 1950. Full military alliance with Germany begin, which will make Britain the world´s 4th military power.
The USA recovers in the 1950s but remaines nearly evenly divided on whever to support the Soviet-Union or the Axis.
 

Cook

Banned
This is unrealistic for the following reasons.
1: The British surrender.

If you are looking for a British surrender try this:

Operation Dynamo, the improvised evacuation of the British Expeditionary Force from the beaches and wharf of Dunkirk fails. Instead of 198,000 British and a further 140,000 French troops being picked up the total is less than 30,000 before the Panzer divisions reach the beach. Over 150,000 British soldiers languish in POW camps.

Faced with such a proposition it is doubtful even Churchill could have held the cabinet, Parliament and the country steady and not been forced into a negotiated peace.
 
This is unrealistic for the following reasons.
1: The British surrender.

Why?
If you rule out Wiston it is quite probable, expecially if it is offered in the form of a returning to a status quo ante bellum regarding British possessions and a limited soveregnity is guaranteed to france (under Petain, of course)
 

Larrikin

Banned
Pretty unrealistic I agree but Churchill had to go through a vote of no confidence in OTL imagine if the same thing thing happened with massive eastern front style air raids on Britiah cities and the Germans advancing into the Middle East. Also it's not really a surrender more of a cease-fire, Britian will not be occupied nor will it cede any territory except the territory already under Axis occupation.

The Germans had already tried massive air raids on Britain. They didn't work. A significant component of those massive eastern front style air raids was the Ju 87, and those weren't survivable over the UK, and couldn't reach any targets of major signifigance anyway.

Remember, that by the end of 1940 the UK was at least matching German aircraft production, and if they were forced to make more fighters rather than 4 engined bombers, that means lots more engines for Spitfires, probably some available to produce the Whirlwind II, more Beaufighters as night fighters, and the Mosquito as a night fighter from the beginning.
 
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